{"id":8092,"date":"2011-11-24T13:19:02","date_gmt":"2011-11-24T10:19:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8092"},"modified":"2011-11-24T13:19:11","modified_gmt":"2011-11-24T10:19:11","slug":"yeni-bir-ekonomik-program-gereksinimi-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yeni-bir-ekonomik-program-gereksinimi-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Yeni Bir Ekonomik Program Gereksinimi (2)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00dcretimimiz ara mal\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131z da yat\u0131r\u0131m mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131na \u00e7ok ba\u011fl\u0131. Bir de net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olunca ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan resme \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmamak laz\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-811642674\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>F\u0131rsat bulduk\u00e7a, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u2018y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u2013 (de\u011fi\u015fmeyen y\u00fcksek) i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131\u2019 bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m, \u2018yeni bir ekonomik program gereksinimi\u2019 konusuna e\u011filmek istiyorum. \u2018Yeni bir ekonomik program\u2019 yerine \u2018yeni bir ekonomik model\u2019 ya da \u2018yap\u0131sal reformlar\u2019 da diyebilirdim. Demiyorum; ikincisinin tam olarak ne anlama geldi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k de\u011fil benim i\u00e7in, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ise kullan\u0131la kullan\u0131la i\u00e7i bo\u015fald\u0131\/bo\u015falacak. Bu konuda yazaca\u011f\u0131m yaz\u0131lar, yeni olgular ortaya koymay\u0131 ama\u00e7lam\u0131yor. Yazacaklar\u0131m\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 daha \u00f6nce bu k\u00f6\u015fede ya da ba\u015fka k\u00f6\u015felerde dile getirildi. Belki arada az de\u011finilen olgulara da yer verebilirim. Neyse&#8230; Daha \u00f6nce tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olsalar da amac\u0131m bu olgulara bir daha dikkat \u00e7ekmek. Bug\u00fcn s\u0131rada \u2018ithalata dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u2019 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan olgu var.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ne de\u011fi\u015fmeli?\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nGrafik 1\u2019de gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSYH) ile toplam ithalat\u0131n birlikte hareketleri yer al\u0131yor. Bu ili\u015fkiye uzun zamand\u0131r bakm\u0131yordum. Beraber hareket ettiklerini \u00e7ok \u00f6nceden biliyordum elbette ama itiraf edeyim, hareketlerinin bu grafikteki kadar \u2018yap\u0131\u015f\u0131k\u2019 oldu\u011funu ya unutmu\u015fum ya da y\u0131llar \u00f6ncesi bu denli yap\u0131\u015f\u0131k de\u011fillerdi. Grafikte yer alan her iki seri de mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f haldeler. \u00c7eyrek y\u0131ll\u0131k veriler 1998\u2019in ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda ba\u015fl\u0131yor, GSYH i\u00e7in 2011\u2019in ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde, ithalat i\u00e7in ise 2011\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde sona eriyor.<br \/>\nBu birlikte hareketin arkas\u0131nda ne oldu\u011funu biliyoruz: \u00dcretimimiz ara mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131na \u00e7ok fazla ba\u011fl\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131z da yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131na. Bir de net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olunca bu resmin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na elbette \u015fa\u015fmamak gerekiyor. Grafik 2\u2019de GSYH\u2019nin makine-te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 alt kalemi ile yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131n\u0131n hareketleri yer al\u0131yor. Her ikisinin de olduk\u00e7a yak\u0131n bir seyir izledikleri g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<br \/>\nAman dikkat: \u201c\u0130thalatla b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck\u201d gibi bir \u015fey demiyorum; b\u00f6yle bir \u015fey demek \u2013hadi kibarl\u0131\u011fa gerek yok- \u00e7ok sa\u00e7ma olur. Burada belirtilen, sadece h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcrken ihalat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n da h\u0131zla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131. Bu ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layacak d\u00f6viz gelirimiz olmay\u0131nca da d\u00f6viz cinsinden bor\u00e7lan\u0131yoruz. Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 ko\u015fullar uygun de\u011filse bu borcu bulam\u0131yor ve ithalat gereksinimimizi, yani b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmek zorunda kal\u0131yoruz. Yeni bir ekonomik programla de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmam\u0131z gereken yap\u0131n\u0131n temel \u00f6zelliklerinden biri bu i\u015fte.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.radikal.com.tr\/150x113\/2011\/11\/23\/fft16_mf861118.Jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Graf\u0130k 1. \u0130thalat ve GSYH: 1998\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi \u2013 2011\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi (sol eksen ithalat-milyon dolar, sa\u011f eksen GSYH-1998 fiyatlar\u0131yla milyon lira).<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.radikal.com.tr\/150x113\/2011\/11\/23\/fft16_mf861119.Jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Graf\u0130k 2. Yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131 ve GSYH\u2019nin makine-te\u00e7hizat alt kalemi: 1998\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi \u2013 2011\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi (sol eksen ithalat-milyon dolar, sa\u011f eksen GSYH-1998 fiyatlar\u0131yla milyon lira).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00dcretimimiz ara mal\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131z da yat\u0131r\u0131m mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131na \u00e7ok ba\u011fl\u0131. Bir de net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olunca ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan resme \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmamak laz\u0131m. F\u0131rsat bulduk\u00e7a, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8092","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8092"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8092\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8092"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8092"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8092"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}