{"id":8083,"date":"2011-11-24T10:59:43","date_gmt":"2011-11-24T07:59:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8083"},"modified":"2011-11-24T10:59:43","modified_gmt":"2011-11-24T07:59:43","slug":"tepki-alimi-ne-zaman-yapilmali","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/tepki-alimi-ne-zaman-yapilmali\/","title":{"rendered":"Tepki al\u0131m\u0131 ne zaman yap\u0131lmal\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align: -webkit-center\"><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Piyasalardaki olumsuz haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcm h\u0131z\u0131yla devam ediyor. D\u00fcn Almanya\u2019n\u0131n tahvil ihrac\u0131na talebin \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131 faizleri y\u00fckseltirken, ABD tahvillerinde faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle aradaki spreadin a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin dinamosu da krizden etkilenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 yorumlar\u0131na neden oldu. Bu durum \u015fuana kadar y\u00fcksek perdeden konu\u015fan Merkel\u2019e piyasalar\u0131n ilk tokad\u0131 oldu. Merkel dald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bize bir \u015fey olmaz r\u00fcyas\u0131ndan bu \u015fekilde belki uyanabilir ve \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zlanabilir. Bunun yan\u0131nda kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan Fransa\u2019n\u0131n notunun indirilebilece\u011fi yorumlar\u0131 ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi resesyon riskinin not bask\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 borsalar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. D\u00fcn \u00f6zellikle Almanya\u2019daki ihale sonras\u0131 Euro\/Dolar paritesinde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme ya\u015fand\u0131. Son g\u00fcnlerde destek olu\u015fturan 1,3425\u2019in k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla d\u00fcn 1,3320\u2019ye kadar gerileyen parite sabah saatlerinde 1,34\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmeye devam ediyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1061035704\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u0130\u00e7eride ise Merkez Bankas\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 beklenirken, sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra Fitch T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi notu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc pozitiften dura\u011fana revize etti. Zamanlama PPK karar\u0131 sonras\u0131 olsa da ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. PPK faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n hi\u00e7birinde de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 fonlamas\u0131n\u0131n miktar\u0131 gerekli g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 veya yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ayarlanacakt\u0131r ifadesine yer verildi. TCMB\u2019nin bu yolla d\u00f6viz rezervlerini kullanmadan TL\u2019nin miktar\u0131yla oynayarak kurlar\u0131 dengeleme \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na girece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu hafta TCMB repo ihalesi ve d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f ihalesi a\u00e7mayarak bunun mesaj\u0131n\u0131 vermi\u015fti. Bu strateji i\u015fe yarar m\u0131 bunu zamanla g\u00f6rece\u011fiz fakat bizim inanc\u0131m\u0131z Avrupa\u2019da krizin devam etti\u011fi bir ortamda d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek olan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de bildi\u011fimiz klasik manada faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131p piyasaya bu enstr\u00fcman\u0131n da varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131larak, TCMB gerekti\u011finde her t\u00fcrl\u00fc enstr\u00fcman\u0131 kullanabilir mesaj\u0131 verilmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece kurlarda ve piyasalarda istikrar\u0131n sa\u011flanabilmesi i\u00e7in TCMB\u2019nin \u00e7ok daha farkl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar atma gereklili\u011fi ortadan kalkmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u015euan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck sorunu d\u0131\u015f finansman ve bu sorun a\u015f\u0131lmadan istikrarl\u0131 g\u00fcnler beklemek \u00e7ok hayalci. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k, vadesi gelen \u00f6demeler ve olas\u0131 bir s\u0131cak para \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yla m\u00fccadele etmek \u00e7ok zor. D\u00fcn Fitch de bu konuya de\u011findi ve T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in d\u0131\u015f finansman zorunlulu\u011fu global k\u0131r\u0131lmalara kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131yor uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Bunun yan\u0131nda \u00e7evremizde geli\u015fen olaylar\u0131 da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak artan siyasi riskin de bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011fu ifade edildi. Bu iki ana sebebin Fitch\u2019in not g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc pozitiften dura\u011fana \u00e7evirmesinde etkili oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu iki sorun a\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece de yeni not art\u0131\u015f\u0131 senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n tamamen, belki de 2012\u2019yi de kapsayacak \u015fekilde, rafa kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u0130MKB 30\u2019a gelince d\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerimizi de\u011fi\u015ftirecek \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme yok. \u0130MKB 30\u2019da 60,000 deste\u011fine kadar bir geri \u00e7ekilme potansiyeli var. Bug\u00fcn 62,350 ge\u00e7ilemedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece bu olas\u0131l\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalacakt\u0131r. Fakat d\u00fcn de de\u011findi\u011fimiz gibi 60,000 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek ve bu b\u00f6lgeden bir tepki gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek. 59,500 alt\u0131nda stop loss yapmak kayd\u0131yla bu seviyelere yak\u0131n yerlerden al\u0131m yap\u0131labilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yaln\u0131z bu seviye de k\u0131r\u0131lacak olursa bir s\u00fcre nakde ge\u00e7ip beklemede fayda var. Israrc\u0131 olmak i\u00e7in geriye bir neden kalm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN<\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong>Kapital Menkul De\u011ferler A.\u015e.<\/strong><\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong>T\u00fcrev Ara\u00e7lar Birimi \/ Uzman<\/strong><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Tel: 0212 330 04 70<\/strong><strong><br \/>\nFax<strong>: 0212 330 0 369<\/strong><\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong><a title=\"blocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\nhttp:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" href=\"http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr<br \/> <\/a><\/strong><\/strong><a title=\"blocked::mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\nblocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\nblocked::mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\nblocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\nblocked::mailto:udogan@kapita\" href=\"mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\"><strong>udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<strong>UYARI: <\/strong>Burada yer alan yat\u0131r\u0131m bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda degildir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 hizmeti; Arac\u0131 kurumlar, portf\u00f6y y\u00f6netim sirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile m\u00fcsteri aras\u0131nda imzalanacak yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 s\u00f6zlesmesi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde sunulmaktad\u0131r. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanlar\u0131n kisisel g\u00f6r\u00fcslerine dayanmaktad\u0131r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcsler, mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanarak yat\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonu\u00e7lar dogurmayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasalardaki olumsuz haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcm h\u0131z\u0131yla devam ediyor. D\u00fcn Almanya\u2019n\u0131n tahvil ihrac\u0131na talebin \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131 faizleri y\u00fckseltirken, ABD tahvillerinde faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle aradaki spreadin a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8083","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8083","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8083"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8083\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8083"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8083"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8083"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}