{"id":8060,"date":"2011-11-22T13:19:21","date_gmt":"2011-11-22T10:19:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8060"},"modified":"2011-11-23T13:19:37","modified_gmt":"2011-11-23T10:19:37","slug":"likiditeye-dikkat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/likiditeye-dikkat\/","title":{"rendered":"Likidite&#8217;ye Dikkat"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa finans piyasalar\u0131, kriz yetmiyor gibi \u015fimdi bir de likidite s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorunu ya\u015famaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<br \/>\nBu son geli\u015fme, \u00fc\u00e7 nedenden kaynaklan\u0131yor.<br \/>\nBirincisi, bankalar sermaye yeterlili\u011fini tutturabilmek ve yeni d\u00fczenlemelere ayak uydurabilmek i\u00e7in bilan\u00e7osundaki bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yorlar.<br \/>\n\u0130kincisi, sorunlu aktifleri i\u00e7in ay\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 abart\u0131yorlar. &#8220;Ma\u00e7o kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k&#8221; diye adland\u0131r\u0131lan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ay\u0131rma y\u00f6ntemini uyguluyorlar.<br \/>\n\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, y\u0131l sonu yakla\u015f\u0131rken bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131n iyi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesini istiyorlar.<br \/>\nT\u00fcm bu fakt\u00f6rler, baz\u0131 bankalar\u0131n likidite taleplerini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da kredi arayanlar ya da likidite talep edenler giderek s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir durumla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131yorlar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-207975345\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>B\u0130ZE ETK\u0130S\u0130<\/strong><br \/>\nAvrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB), \u00fclkelerin tahvillerini al\u0131p faizlerinin daha da y\u00fckselmesine m\u00e2ni olma d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ek likiditeyi piyasalara sa\u011flayam\u0131yor. Bankalar\u0131n para bulacaklar\u0131 di\u011fer kap\u0131lar da kapal\u0131.<br \/>\nKu\u015fkusuz bu geli\u015fmeler bizim piyasalar\u0131 da etkiliyor.<br \/>\nLikiditeye s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan ve T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de hisse senedi ya da Hazine tahvillerine para yat\u0131ran Avrupal\u0131 finans kurulu\u015flar\u0131, bizdeki varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 satarak \u00e7\u0131kmak istiyorlar.<br \/>\nBu ise bizde hem d\u00f6vizin fiyat\u0131n\u0131 hem de piyasa faizlerinin d\u00fczeyini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor.<br \/>\n\u00d6te yandan da cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelen net fon ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 bu bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>TL H\u00c2L\u00c2 DE\u011eERL\u0130<\/strong><br \/>\nGlobalSource&#8217;dan Murat \u00dc\u00e7er&#8217;in i\u015faret etti\u011fi bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ilgimi \u00e7ekti.<br \/>\nMerkezi Washington&#8217;da bulunan Peterson Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc&#8217;nden tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f ekonomistler olan William Cline ve John Williamson&#8217;\u0131n d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 \u00fczerine yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu ara\u015ft\u0131rma, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n Ekim 2011 tarihi itibar\u0131yla h\u00e2l\u00e2 de\u011ferli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<br \/>\n&#8220;D\u00f6viz Kurunun Yap\u0131sal Dengesi&#8221; esas al\u0131narak elde edilen sonu\u00e7lara g\u00f6re TL, 20 para cinsine esas al\u0131narak olu\u015fturulan sepete g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 21.7, dolara g\u00f6re ise y\u00fczde 12.7 daha de\u011ferli bir durumda bulunuyor.<br \/>\nHesaplaman\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 tarihi 2007 ve denge kuru analizinin varsay\u0131m\u0131 olarak cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131 (+) ya da (-) 3 al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f.<br \/>\nBunun anlam\u0131 \u015fu: TL&#8217;nin denge kuruna ula\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in daha da de\u011fer kaybetmesi laz\u0131m. Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3&#8217;\u00fcn \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 ise de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n daha da fazla olmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>***<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>PPK \u00f6nemini yitiriyor<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc toplanacak.<br \/>\nBu kez piyasalarda fazla bir beklenti ya da heyecan yok. Faiz inecek mi yoksa \u00e7\u0131kacak m\u0131 diye kimse fikir y\u00fcr\u00fctm\u00fcyor.<br \/>\nPolitika faizi &#8220;koridora&#8221; girince ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 &#8220;kurala ba\u011fl\u0131&#8221; para politikas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7ince PPK&#8217;n\u0131n i\u015flevi de azald\u0131. Piyasalara sinyal verip \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemlerde enflasyonist e\u011filimleri y\u00f6nlendirmesi bir ba\u015fka bahara kald\u0131.<br \/>\nB\u00f6yle de olunca &#8220;\u00e7ok ama\u00e7l\u0131&#8221; para politikas\u0131na uygun bir PPK ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa finans piyasalar\u0131, kriz yetmiyor gibi \u015fimdi bir de likidite s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorunu ya\u015famaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu son geli\u015fme, \u00fc\u00e7 nedenden kaynaklan\u0131yor. Birincisi, bankalar sermaye yeterlili\u011fini tutturabilmek&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":418,"featured_media":5395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8060","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/418"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8060"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8060\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8060"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8060"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8060"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}