{"id":8033,"date":"2011-11-23T10:55:10","date_gmt":"2011-11-23T07:55:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=8033"},"modified":"2011-11-23T10:55:19","modified_gmt":"2011-11-23T07:55:19","slug":"ithalat-ihracat-issizlik-ve-buyume","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ithalat-ihracat-issizlik-ve-buyume\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130thalat, \u0130hracat, \u0130\u015fsizlik ve B\u00fcy\u00fcme"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6\u011frenmeye birka\u00e7 hafta kald\u0131. 2011&#8217;in t\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde. Mesela Orta Vadeli Program 2011 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini y\u00fczde 7.5 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Uzun d\u00f6nemli ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fczde 4.8 oldu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131n\u0131rsa olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek bir rakam bu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2955843491\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek miktarda a\u00e7\u0131k vermesinden \u015fik\u00e2yet ediyoruz. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeylere \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 nedenleri var. Bunlardan bir tanesi de y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131. H\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcrken yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli miktarda ara mal\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131m mal\u0131 ithal ediyoruz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etki yap\u0131yor y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131. Grafik 1&#8217;de GSYH ile ithalat aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fki g\u00f6steriliyor. Her iki veri de mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00e7eyrek y\u0131ll\u0131k veriler. 1998&#8217;in ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131 ile 2011&#8217;in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemde bu iki de\u011fi\u015fken nerdeyse birbirlerine yap\u0131\u015f\u0131k hareket etmi\u015fler.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel krizden sonraki d\u00f6nemde ihracat\u0131m\u0131z ithalat\u0131m\u0131za paralel bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermedi; sonu\u00e7ta da cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z artt\u0131. Grafik 2&#8217;de 2008&#8217;in ilk ay\u0131ndan 2011&#8217;in Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar olan d\u00f6nemde (mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f) ihracat ve ithalat\u0131n seyri g\u00f6steriliyor. Rahat okunsun diye her ikisinin 2008&#8217;in Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ald\u0131klar\u0131 de\u011ferler 100 olmak \u00fczere di\u011fer de\u011ferleri de endeks haline getirdim. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zelli\u011fi ihracat\u0131n en y\u00fcksek de\u011feri ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ay olmas\u0131. \u0130thalat i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel krizden \u00f6nceki rekor de\u011fer A\u011fustos 2008&#8217;de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ek olarak her bir ay\u0131n de\u011feri kendisi ve kendisinden \u00f6nceki iki ay\u0131n ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Grafikte bir de yatay 100 do\u011frusu var; bu rekor de\u011ferleri ifade ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>H\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin etkisiyle ithalat alm\u0131\u015f ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 gitmi\u015f; 2011&#8217;in ilk aylar\u0131nda k\u00fcresel krizden \u00f6nceki en y\u00fcksek de\u011ferini a\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve o d\u00f6nemden bu yana da s\u00fcrekli art\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ihracat\u0131m\u0131z hen\u00fcz k\u00fcresel krizden \u00f6nceki rekoruna ula\u015famad\u0131. \u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yar\u0131ya yak\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi Avrupa&#8217;daki sorunlar derinle\u015fiyor. Bu durumda ihracat performans\u0131m\u0131z bundan sonra da parlak olmayacak.<\/p>\n<p>Cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131n\u0131 bozan y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi beklenir. Ne yaz\u0131k ki 2002&#8217;den bu yana ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z bu beklentiye ters d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Tablo 1&#8217;de 2001 krizinden sonraki \u00e7e\u015fitli ara d\u00f6nemlerde i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n seyri yer al\u0131yor. 2011&#8217;e ili\u015fkin veriler, i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk sekiz ay\u0131n ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 i\u00e7in ise Orta Vadeli Program&#8217;da tahmin edileni g\u00f6steriyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>2002-2007 d\u00f6neminde y\u00fcksek say\u0131labilecek bir h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f olmam\u0131za kar\u015f\u0131n, i\u015fsizli\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmekte ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olamam\u0131\u015f\u0131z. Onca b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye kar\u015f\u0131n 2002-2004 ve 2005-2008 d\u00f6nemlerindeki toplam i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 neredeyse ayn\u0131. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 2005-2007 ile 2011 i\u00e7in yaparsak da durum de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. \u00dcstelik bu defa tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n da de\u011fi\u015fmeden kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n belli bir e\u015fi\u011fi a\u015fmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini biliyoruz. Bu e\u015fik de\u011feri \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131mdaki art\u0131\u015f belirliyor. Her ikisi y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e bu e\u015fik de\u011fer de y\u00fckseliyor. Ancak tablodan g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi gibi, k\u00fcresel kriz d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan d\u00f6nemlerdeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. E\u015fik de\u011ferin bu kadar y\u00fcksek olmamas\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi beklenirdi. Olmam\u0131\u015f. Y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme cari i\u015flemler dengesini iyice bozmu\u015f ama i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmemi\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel finansal piyasalardaki sorunlar nedeniyle cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 eskisi gibi rahat finanse edemeyece\u011fiz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla eskisi kadar y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k veremeyece\u011fiz. \u0130ster istemez ithalat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 yava\u015flayacak. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse 2012&#8217;de b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fecek. Orta Vadeli Program bu h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 4 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Muhtemelen bu d\u00fczeyin belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z olacak 2012&#8217;de. Bu durumda i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131nda da bir miktar art\u0131\u015f olacak. B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z ne kadar d\u00fc\u015ferse cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z o kadar azalacak, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z ise o kadar artacak. Sevimli de\u011fil. Ama bu ekonomik yap\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmedik\u00e7e b\u00f6yle sevimsiz durumlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hep var.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-624308155\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Tablo 1. B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve i\u015fsizlik<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131\u00a0\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme (%)\u00a0Toplam (%)\u00a0Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (%)<\/p>\n<p>2002-2004\u00a07.0\u00a010.5\u00a014.2<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-579210396\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2005-2007\u00a06.4\u00a010.4\u00a012.9<\/p>\n<p>2008-2010\u00a00.9\u00a012.3\u00a015.3<\/p>\n<p>2011\u00a07.5\u00a010.1\u00a012.8<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6\u011frenmeye birka\u00e7 hafta kald\u0131. 2011&#8217;in t\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde. Mesela Orta Vadeli Program 2011 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8033","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8033","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8033"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8033\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8033"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8033"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8033"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}