{"id":7977,"date":"2011-11-22T10:46:52","date_gmt":"2011-11-22T07:46:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=7977"},"modified":"2011-11-22T10:47:01","modified_gmt":"2011-11-22T07:47:01","slug":"%e2%80%98net-hata-noksan%e2%80%99-bilmecesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/%e2%80%98net-hata-noksan%e2%80%99-bilmecesi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Net Hata Noksan\u2019 Bilmecesi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Pazar yaz\u0131ma sevgili dostum Ege Cansen\u2019den iltifat ald\u0131m. Grafi\u011fin d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131kta tehlikeli gidi\u015fat\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Mevcut kur d\u00fczeyinin\u00a0bu\u00a0e\u011filimi k\u0131rmakta yetersiz kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme kat\u0131l\u0131yor. Huyludur; \u00f6yle kolay be\u011fenmez. Sevindim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2152620283\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>O arada \u201cnet hata noksan\u201d (NHN) kalemini de konu\u015fma f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 bulduk. Yaz\u0131da \u201cnesebi gayri sahih\u201d\u00a0d\u00f6viz\u00a0giri\u015flerinde patlamaya da i\u015faret etmi\u015ftim. Beraberce say\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irdik. Telefonda beyin f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131 yapt\u0131k.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6demeler dengesinde muhasebe hatalar\u0131 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n da g\u00fcndeminde. The Economist iktisat k\u00f6\u015fesine \u201cMars\u2019a ihracat\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u00a0att\u0131. Eskiden d\u00fcnya cari denge toplam\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131r ya da eksi bakiye verirdi. Alt\u0131 y\u0131ld\u0131r baya\u011f\u0131 art\u0131ya ge\u00e7ti. (www.economist.com\/node\/21538100)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Muhasebe sorunu<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Y\u00f6ntemi hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m. \u00d6demeler dengesi \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnya\u00a0<span><strong>ile<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0t\u00fcm parasal ili\u015fkilerini kaps\u0131yor. \u0130hracat, ithalat, sermaye hareketleri vs. bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc i\u015flem baz\u0131nda tutuluyor. Turizm, bavul ticareti vs. di\u011ferleri ise \u00e7e\u015fitli y\u00f6ntemlerle tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00f6ylece cari i\u015flemler\u00a0<span><strong>ve<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0sermaye dengelerine ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Teoride ikisinin toplam\u0131n\u0131n rezerv de\u011fi\u015fimine e\u015fit olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. De\u011filse, aradaki fark \u201cnet hata noksan\u201d kalemini olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n<p>NHN fazlas\u0131 h\u00e2line bakal\u0131m. \u00dclkeye d\u00f6viz girdi\u011fi, banka sisteminden g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ama \u00f6demeler dengesinin hangi kaleminden girdi\u011fi saptanam\u0131yor. Do\u011fru anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. Olay \u00f6z\u00fcnde bir muhasebe sorunudur.<\/p>\n<p>Ayl\u0131k NHN b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmalar g\u00f6sterir. Uzun d\u00f6nemde bakiyesi s\u0131f\u0131ra y\u00f6neldi\u011fi s\u00fcrece ihmal edilebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\/eksi bakiye olu\u015fmas\u0131 ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7me hatalar\u0131na i\u015farettir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4276629451\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130ki ihtimal var. Bir: Ger\u00e7ek d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k hesaplanandan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fckt\u00fcr. \u0130ki: Ger\u00e7ek sermaye giri\u015fi hesaplanandan b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Hata nerede?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiktedir. Birikimli NHN hesab\u0131n\u0131 Aral\u0131k 2006\u2019dan ba\u015flatt\u0131m. \u0130lk 22 ay iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket ediyor. K\u00fcresel krizin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl 2008\u2019de 2 milyar dolar eksi bakiye veriyor. NHN tan\u0131m\u0131 ile uyumludur.<\/p>\n<p>Kriz sonras\u0131nda aniden de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Eyl\u00fcl 2009\u2019da 11 milyar dolar art\u0131ya ge\u00e7iyor. Bir y\u0131lda 13 milyar dolar giri\u015f demek. Ertesi y\u0131l gene dura\u011fan ge\u00e7iyor. Eyl\u00fcl 2010\u2019da 12 milyar dolar art\u0131da kal\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3729923628\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Son y\u0131lda ise d\u00f6viz giri\u015fi tekrar patl\u0131yor: 14 milyar dolar. Birikimli 27 milyar dolara, \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda giren ise 29 milyar dolara ula\u015f\u0131yor. \u00dc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n (127 milyar dolar) y\u00fczde 22.4\u2019\u00fc bu d\u00f6vizle kar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131yor. Sistematik hata oldu\u011fu kesindir.<\/p>\n<p>Hata nerede? Kayda girmeyen sermaye giri\u015fi mi? Yoksa kayda girmeyen ihracat geliri mi? Ege ile epey tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. \u0130kincisi daha makul duruyor. \u201cOla\u011fan \u015f\u00fcpheli\u201d hizmet ihracat\u0131 hesaplar\u0131n\u0131n zorlu\u011fudur. B\u00f6yle ise d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fckt\u00fcr.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pazar yaz\u0131ma sevgili dostum Ege Cansen\u2019den iltifat ald\u0131m. Grafi\u011fin d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131kta tehlikeli gidi\u015fat\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Mevcut kur d\u00fczeyinin\u00a0bu\u00a0e\u011filimi k\u0131rmakta yetersiz kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme kat\u0131l\u0131yor. Huyludur;&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7977","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7977"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7977\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7977"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7977"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7977"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}