{"id":7971,"date":"2011-11-22T10:42:23","date_gmt":"2011-11-22T07:42:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=7971"},"modified":"2011-11-22T10:42:32","modified_gmt":"2011-11-22T07:42:32","slug":"yeni-bir-ekonomik-program-gereksinimi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yeni-bir-ekonomik-program-gereksinimi\/","title":{"rendered":"Yeni Bir Ekonomik Program Gereksinimi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c7ok farkl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lardan bakarak T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin yeni bir ekonomik programa ihtiyac\u0131 oldu\u011fu saptamas\u0131n\u0131 kolayl\u0131kla yapmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3019504144\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>K\u00fcresel kriz s\u0131ras\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7rayan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131ndan itibaren \u2018normal\u2019 d\u00fczeyi olan y\u00fczde 10 dolaylar\u0131nda gezinmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevsim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f a\u011fustos i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 9.6 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu de\u011fer \u2018normal\u2019in (\u00e7ok az) alt\u0131nda olsa da, birka\u00e7 ay sonra i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n yeniden y\u00fczde 10 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseli\u015fine tan\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131z. B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fmesinin beklendi\u011fi 2012\u2019de ise i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 daha da y\u00fckselecek.<br \/>\nY\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 i\u00e7eren bir tablo veriyorum. Hem toplam hem de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin veriler yer al\u0131yor. Birka\u00e7 farkl\u0131 d\u00f6nem var: Krizin etkilerinin hissedildi\u011fi d\u00f6nem (2008-2010), 2002-2004 ve 2005-2007. 2011\u2019e ili\u015fkin veriler, i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk sekiz ay\u0131n ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 i\u00e7in ise Orta Vadeli Program\u2019da tahmin edileni g\u00f6steriyorlar.<br \/>\n\u0130\u015fsizlik verileri hassasiyet a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en sorunlu verilerin ba\u015f\u0131nda geliyorlar. Bu \u00f6zellik bir tarafa, tabloda \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bir olgu var: 2002-2007 d\u00f6neminde y\u00fcksek say\u0131labilecek bir h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f olmam\u0131za kar\u015f\u0131n, i\u015fsizli\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmekte ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olamam\u0131\u015f\u0131z. Onca b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye kar\u015f\u0131n 2002-2004 ve 2005-2008 d\u00f6nemlerindeki toplam i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 neredeyse ayn\u0131. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131nda bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var. Fakat bu ne kadar \u2018ger\u00e7e\u011fi\u2019 yans\u0131t\u0131yor, belirtmek zor; i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc istatistiklerinin hesaplanmas\u0131nda bir s\u00fcredir farkl\u0131 bir y\u00f6ntem kullan\u0131l\u0131yor. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 2005-2007 ile 2011 i\u00e7in yaparsak da durum de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. Onca b\u00fcy\u00fcme, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 10\u2019un alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrememi\u015f. \u00dcstelik bu defa tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n da de\u011fi\u015fmeden kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<br \/>\n\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n belli bir e\u015fi\u011fi a\u015fmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini biliyoruz. Birka\u00e7 nedenle b\u00f6yle bir e\u015fik de\u011fer s\u00f6z konusu. Birincisi, verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 varsa, eskiden 10 i\u015f\u00e7i ile bin g\u00f6mlek \u00fcretiyorduysan\u0131z, \u015fimdi ayn\u0131 say\u0131da i\u015f\u00e7i ile bin y\u00fcz g\u00f6mlek \u00fcretebilir duruma geliyorsunuz. \u00dcretim artarken istihdam artmayabiliyor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015fmeyebiliyor. \u0130kincisi, her y\u0131l i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne yeni kat\u0131l\u0131mlar oluyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin getirdi\u011fi istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 bu yeni kat\u0131l\u0131mdan sa\u011flan\u0131yor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, daha fazla \u00fcretiyorsunuz diye baz\u0131 t\u00fcr i\u015fler i\u00e7in daha fazla elemen istihdam etmiyorsunuz. Mesela bah\u00e7\u0131van say\u0131n\u0131z de\u011fi\u015fmiyor, kap\u0131daki g\u00fcvenlik\u00e7i say\u0131s\u0131 da.<br \/>\nBunlar\u0131n hepsi tamam. Tamam da tablodaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131 da az buz de\u011fil. Kriz d\u00f6nemini d\u0131\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6.4 ve \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131ndan s\u00f6z ediyorum. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uzun d\u00f6nemli ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 4.8 dolay\u0131nda oldu\u011fu hat\u0131rlan\u0131rsa, bu ortalaman\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00fczerindeki bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrememesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan bak\u0131nca da ayn\u0131 sonuca ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yeni bir ekonomik programa ihtiyac\u0131 var.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.radikal.com.tr\/150x113\/2011\/11\/21\/fft16_mf859601.Jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c7ok farkl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lardan bakarak T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin yeni bir ekonomik programa ihtiyac\u0131 oldu\u011fu saptamas\u0131n\u0131 kolayl\u0131kla yapmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. K\u00fcresel kriz s\u0131ras\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7rayan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131ndan&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7971","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7971","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7971"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7971\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7971"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7971"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7971"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}