{"id":7887,"date":"2011-11-19T10:01:09","date_gmt":"2011-11-19T07:01:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=7887"},"modified":"2011-11-19T10:01:19","modified_gmt":"2011-11-19T07:01:19","slug":"cari-acik-nereye","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cari-acik-nereye\/","title":{"rendered":"Cari A\u00e7\u0131k Nereye"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bor\u00e7 bulmakta zorlanaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in daha az yat\u0131r\u0131m yapaca\u011f\u0131z, daha az t\u00fcketece\u011fiz. Sonu\u00e7ta bu da cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa olumlu katk\u0131 yapacak.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1990421814\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Hafta i\u00e7inde eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6demeler dengesi verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Dikkat \u00e7ekici geli\u015fmelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda cari i\u015flemler dengesindeki k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fme geliyor. Mevsimlik nedenlerle cari i\u015flemler dengesinde belirgin oynamalar olabiliyor. Oysa iktisadi a\u00e7\u0131dan bunlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki hareketler \u00f6nemli. Bu nedenle mevsim hareketlerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f cari i\u015flemler dengesine bak\u0131yorum. Bunu yaparken de cari dengeye ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan \u00fc\u00e7 ana kalemin (mal ihracat\u0131, mal ithalat\u0131 ve turizm ile m\u00fcteahhitlik gibi hizmetlerden elde edilen net d\u00f6viz giri\u015fleri) mevsimlik hareketlerini ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 dikkate al\u0131yorum. \u0130kinci olarak da enerji \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z net \u00f6demeleri d\u0131\u015flayan enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 cari denge hesab\u0131n\u0131 dikkate al\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Avrupa daralacak\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\n2009\u2019un ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana iki de\u011fi\u015fkenin hareketleri milyon dolar cinsinden Grafik 1\u2019de g\u00f6steriliyor (art\u0131 de\u011ferler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediyor). Marttan eyl\u00fcle kadar her iki de\u011ferde de belirgin bir azalma s\u00f6z konusu. Eyl\u00fclde ise tersine bir hareket var: Hem cari a\u00e7\u0131k hem de enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k art\u0131yor. Bu olumsuz geli\u015fme bundan sonra da s\u00fcrer mi? Cari i\u015flemler dengesinin hem d\u00fczelmesine hem de bozulmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak baz\u0131 geli\u015fmeler bizleri bekliyor. Net etki b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla d\u00fczelme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olacak.<br \/>\nOlumsuz etkiden ba\u015flayay\u0131m. Avrupa ekonomisi derin bir krizde ve 2012\u2019de Avrupa i\u00e7in beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 s\u00fcrekli olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru g\u00fcncelleniyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131ya yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z pazar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l geni\u015flememesi hatta daralmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. Bu, bir yandan da bu pazardaki rekabetin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeleri bir yana b\u0131rak\u0131rsak bu pazardaki temel rakiplerimiz \u015fu \u00fclkeler: Brezilya, \u00c7in, Endonezya, Hindistan, Kore, Meksika, Rusya ve Tayland. Bir de Avrupa Birli\u011fi i\u00e7inden rakiplerimiz var: \u00c7ek Cumhuriyeti, Macaristan, Polonya ve Romanya. Daha \u00f6nce belirttim: Rusya (o da daha \u00e7ok enerji \u00fcr\u00fcnleri sat\u0131yor) ve Hindistan d\u0131\u015far\u0131da tutuldu\u011funda di\u011fer \u00fclkelere kar\u015f\u0131 maliyet dezavantaj\u0131m\u0131z s\u00f6z konusu: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de enflasyon daha y\u00fcksek. Sadece \u015fimdi de\u011fil, mesela 2005\u2019ten ya da 2009\u2019dan bu yana da y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kaynak miktar\u0131 azal\u0131yor\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nOlumlu unsurlara gelince: Birincisi, 2010\u2019un son aylar\u0131ndan bu yana d\u00f6viz kurunda \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. B\u00f6ylelikle d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya sataca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z mallar yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n para birimleri cinsinden ucuzlam\u0131\u015f oluyor. Az \u00f6nce s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim rekabet dezavantaj\u0131 (enflasyonu artt\u0131racak olsa da) bu yolla bir miktar azal\u0131yor. \u2018Bir miktar\u2019 \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc rakiplerimizin paralar\u0131 da son aylarda de\u011fer yitirdi. \u0130kinci neden de ge\u00e7en haftalarda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131. Vergi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bir yandan kamu gelirlerini artt\u0131rarak kamu tasarrufuna olumlu etki yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Di\u011fer yandan da \u00f6zellikle motorlu ta\u015f\u0131t ithalat\u0131n\u0131 azaltaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<br \/>\n\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc olumlu etki \u2018zorla\u2019 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek; bir s\u00fcredir ya\u015fan\u0131yor da. \u015eu: Son \u00fc\u00e7 ayda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 i\u00e7in bulabildi\u011fimiz net kaynak miktar\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131na ya da ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla belirgin bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu nedenle, bu geli\u015fmenin artarak s\u00fcrmesi beklenir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, verebilece\u011fimiz cari a\u00e7\u0131k miktar\u0131 azalacak. T\u00fcrk\u00e7esi, bor\u00e7 bulmakta eskisine k\u0131yasla zorlanaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in daha az yat\u0131r\u0131m yapaca\u011f\u0131z, daha az t\u00fcketece\u011fiz. Sonu\u00e7ta da b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015fecek. Bu da cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa olumlu katk\u0131 yapacak.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.radikal.com.tr\/150x113\/2011\/11\/18\/fft16_mf857805.Jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Grafik 1. Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131: 2009 Ocak \u2013 2011 Eyl\u00fcl (milyon dolar).<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bor\u00e7 bulmakta zorlanaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in daha az yat\u0131r\u0131m yapaca\u011f\u0131z, daha az t\u00fcketece\u011fiz. Sonu\u00e7ta bu da cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa olumlu katk\u0131 yapacak. Hafta i\u00e7inde eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6demeler&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7887","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7887"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7887\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7887"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7887"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7887"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}