{"id":7741,"date":"2011-11-16T10:55:10","date_gmt":"2011-11-16T07:55:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=7741"},"modified":"2011-11-16T10:55:20","modified_gmt":"2011-11-16T07:55:20","slug":"cari-acik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cari-acik\/","title":{"rendered":"Cari A\u00e7\u0131k"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">D\u00fcn<\/span><\/strong>, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na ait \u00f6demeler dengesi verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. A\u011fustos verilerine ili\u015fkin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m de\u011ferlendirmede iki noktay\u0131 \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Birincisi, cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131nda (mevsim hareketlerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f verilerle) y\u0131l\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131ndan bu yana belirgin bir iyile\u015fme vard\u0131. \u0130kincisi ise temmuz ve a\u011fustos aylar\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n net sermaye giri\u015fleri ile finanse edilen k\u0131sm\u0131nda bir azalma ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda bu iki de\u011fi\u015fken de ters y\u00f6nde hareket etti. Mevsim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f cari a\u00e7\u0131kta art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Net sermaye giri\u015fi, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki d\u00fczeyine gelmese de y\u00fckseldi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1862603445\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Mevsim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131n\u0131n hareketlerini Grafik 1&#8217;de veriyorum. Ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m d\u00f6nem 2009 Ocak &#8211; 2011 Eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6nemi. Yorumlamas\u0131 kolay olsun diye cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 &#8216;art\u0131&#8217; de\u011ferler ile g\u00f6steriyorum. Veriler milyon dolar cinsinden. Ayr\u0131ca \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k hareketli ortalamalar da yer al\u0131yor grafikte. Daha &#8216;d\u00fczg\u00fcn&#8217; olan e\u011fri bu ortalamalar\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Her iki e\u011fri de bozulmay\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Ama dikkat: Bunlar sadece bir ayl\u0131k bozulma. Hemen &#8216;cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lacak&#8217; gibi sonu\u00e7lar \u00e7\u0131karmak gerekmiyor. Mesela Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri z\u0131t y\u00f6nde. Temelde \u00fc\u00e7 nedenle cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Birincisi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n 2011&#8217;in son \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 ve 2012&#8217;de uzun d\u00f6nemli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130kincisi, 2010&#8217;un son aylar\u0131ndan bu yana d\u00f6viz kurunda \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Liradaki bu de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f pazarlardaki rakiplerimizin para birimlerinin de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu belirtiyor Merkez Bankas\u0131. B\u00f6ylelikle d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya sataca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z mallar yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n para birimleri cinsinden ucuzlam\u0131\u015f oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc neden de ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftalarda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131. Vergi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bir yandan kamu gelirlerini art\u0131rarak kamu tasarrufuna olumlu etki yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Di\u011fer yandan da \u00f6zellikle motorlu ta\u015f\u0131t ithalat\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 ve b\u00f6ylelikle ithalata olumlu katk\u0131 yapmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclere s\u00f6ylenecek bir \u015fey yok; hepsi akla yatk\u0131n. Ancak cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131racak ba\u015fka bir geli\u015fme hanidir ya\u015fan\u0131yor: Avrupa ekonomisi krizde. 2012&#8217;de Avrupa i\u00e7in beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru g\u00fcncelleyen tahminler pe\u015fi s\u0131ra a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131ya yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z pazar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l geni\u015flememesi ihtimali var. Bu, bir yandan da bu pazardaki rekabetin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Japonya ve ABD gibi geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeleri bir yana b\u0131rak\u0131rsak bu pazardaki temel rakiplerimiz \u015fu \u00fclkeler: Brezilya, \u00c7in, Endonezya, Hindistan, Kore, Meksika, Rusya ve Tayland. Bir de Avrupa Birli\u011fi i\u00e7inden rakiplerimiz var: \u00c7ek Cumhuriyeti, Macaristan Polonya ve Romanya. Bu \u00fclkelerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen birikimli fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ile T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen birikimli fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 i\u015fin i\u00e7ine kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmadan g\u00f6reli maliyet durumumuz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir fikir veriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Param\u0131zdan alt\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131r att\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 2005&#8217;in ba\u015f\u0131 ile (son veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda IMF&#8217;ce yap\u0131lan tahminler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde elde edilen) 2011 sonu aras\u0131ndaki t\u00fcketici fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na bak\u0131nca vaziyet \u015f\u00f6yle: Rusya ve Hindistan d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bu d\u00f6nemde birikimli fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;den daha y\u00fcksek olan \u00fclke yok. Bu on \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclkede s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim d\u00f6nemde fiyatlar\u0131n ortalama art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 46.1 olmu\u015f. T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in bu de\u011fer y\u00fczde 72.5. \u00dcstelik ortalamay\u0131 Rusya y\u00fckseltiyor; o da daha \u00e7ok enerji ihra\u00e7 ediyor; rakibimiz say\u0131lmaz. Durum i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil k\u0131sacas\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3488408033\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015e\u00fcphesiz &#8220;Ne var bunda? Bu maliyet dezavantaj\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 param\u0131za de\u011fer kaybettirerek telafi ederiz.&#8221; diyebilirsiniz. Temel sorun da burada zaten. Birincisi, bizim gibi \u00fclkelere sermaye hareketleri yoluyla akan d\u00f6vizin \u00e7ok bol oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde (mesela 2010 ve 2011&#8217;in ilk yar\u0131s\u0131) paraya de\u011fer kaybettirmek zor oluyor. Bunu ba\u015farabilmek i\u00e7in ba\u015fka \u00f6nceliklerden feragat etmek gerekiyor; mesela enflasyondan. \u0130kincisi, paran\u0131z de\u011fer kaybederken yurti\u00e7i \u00fcretim maliyetleri daha da art\u0131yor; bir anlamda ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funuz yere d\u00f6n\u00fcyorsunuz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na ait \u00f6demeler dengesi verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. A\u011fustos verilerine ili\u015fkin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m de\u011ferlendirmede iki noktay\u0131 \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Birincisi, cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131nda (mevsim hareketlerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7741","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7741","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7741"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7741\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7741"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7741"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7741"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}