{"id":7728,"date":"2011-11-16T10:50:05","date_gmt":"2011-11-16T07:50:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=7728"},"modified":"2011-11-16T10:50:12","modified_gmt":"2011-11-16T07:50:12","slug":"politikalardaki-belirsizlik-faizi-vurdu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/politikalardaki-belirsizlik-faizi-vurdu\/","title":{"rendered":"Politikalardaki Belirsizlik Faizi Vurdu!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn yap\u0131lan Hazine ihalelerinde tahvil faizleri Temuz 2009\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yeniden ihrac\u0131 yap\u0131lan 17 Temmuz 2013 vadeli g\u00f6sterge bono ihalesinde ortalama bile\u015fik faiz y\u00fczde 10.59 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Maksimum bile\u015fik faizin y\u00fczde 10.69 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi ihalenin 364\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>g\u00fcn<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0\u00fczerinden hesapland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da unutmamakta fayda var! \u0130kincil piyasa denkli\u011finin yani 365 g\u00fcn \u00fczerinden ortalama 10.62\u2019ye, maksimum ise 10.72\u2019ye denk geliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1750435509\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130halelerde faizler y\u00fckselirken talebin de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 \u00f6nemliydi. G\u00f6sterge bono ihalesinde sat\u0131\u015f\/teklif y\u00fczde 79.50\u2019lerde olmas\u0131 (ki i\u015fler yolundayken\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>bu<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0oran y\u00fczde 25-30\u2019lardayd\u0131), 4 y\u0131ll\u0131k sabit faizli tahvile hepi topu 377 milyon nominallik bir talep gelmesi piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u201crisk i\u015ftahlar\u0131n\u0131n\u201d y\u00fcksek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor!<\/p>\n<p>Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 son g\u00fcnlerde yok \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131klar\u0131 y\u00fczde 7\u2019nin, yok \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131nkiler y\u00fczde 6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 derken, i\u00e7erideki faizleri pek dikkate alm\u0131yorlard\u0131. Bizi as\u0131l ilgilendiren i\u00e7erideki\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>faiz<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0hareketleri asl\u0131nda. D\u00fcnk\u00fc ihalelere gelen talep ve faizlerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f art\u0131k dikkatlerin i\u00e7eriye d\u00f6nmesini sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Faizlerin y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131nda birka\u00e7\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>sebep<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0say\u0131labilir:<\/p>\n<p>En masumundan ba\u015flayal\u0131m: Kl\u00e2sik olarak piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 ihale \u00f6ncesinde ellerindeki bonolar\u0131 sat\u0131p faizleri az da olsa y\u00fckseltip; daha fazla miktar\u0131, daha iyi faizden almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rlar. Bu strateji ancak \u015fartlar\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>uygun<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0oldu\u011funda \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Herkesin \u201cmal almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d bir ortamda bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaz! D\u00fcnk\u00fc ihaleler \u00f6ncesinde \u015fartlar uygundu!<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6nemli sebeplerden birisi yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle de AB B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ya\u015fanan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar, artan faizler ve bunun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gerilimin bizim piyasalara yans\u0131mas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmazd\u0131! Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00e7oktan pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltm\u0131\u015f ya da hedge ederek kenarda bekliyorlard\u0131. K\u00fcresel piyasalarda hava bu kadar \u201ckaranl\u0131k\u201d iken bizim piyasalar\u0131m\u0131za gelenlerin say\u0131s\u0131nda ciddi azal\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu kesin.<\/p>\n<p>Bence as\u0131l \u00f6nemli sebep; Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son 1 y\u0131lda ama \u00f6zellikle de son 2 ayda uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 politikalard\u0131. Bir piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n dedi\u011fi gibi, \u2018Piyasa; Merkez\u2019den intikam\u0131n\u0131, Hazine\u2019den ald\u0131!\u2018 Sorunu yaratan, fonlama taraf\u0131nda MB eliyle yarat\u0131lan belirsizlik asl\u0131nda. MB d\u00f6viz \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmak ad\u0131na fonlama faizlerini y\u00fczde 5.75 ile y\u00fcze 12.50 aras\u0131nda \u201cdalgalan\u0131r\u201d hale getirince belirsizlik adeta \u201ctavan yapt\u0131\u201d. Bono alacak olanlar y\u00fczde 5.75\u2019lik haftal\u0131k repodan m\u0131, y\u00fczde 12.50\u2019lik gecelik faizden mi yoksa y\u00fczde 12\u2019lik piyasa yapc\u0131s\u0131 faizinden mi bor\u00e7lanabilece\u011fi net olmay\u0131nca riski almak yerine bu riski Hazine\u2019ye y\u0131kt\u0131lar. \u00dcstelik bunu iki y\u0131ll\u0131k \u2018\u00e7apraz para swap\u2019 faizlerin TL faizleri 8.25\u2019lerde dalgalan\u0131rken.<\/p>\n<p>MB\u2019nin \u201cbelirsizlik politikas\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e bono faizlerinin geri \u00e7ekilmesi zor olacak! Hatta yak\u0131n zamanda de\u011fil gerilemek, 10.75 bile\u015fik seviyelerine kadar \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ihtimali de az de\u011fil. MB\u2019nin bundan sonraki mesajlar\u0131 \u00f6nemli olacak.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3981460833\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Belirsizli\u011fi azaltacak s\u00f6ylemler, faizleri de azaltacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn yap\u0131lan Hazine ihalelerinde tahvil faizleri Temuz 2009\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yeniden ihrac\u0131 yap\u0131lan 17 Temmuz 2013 vadeli g\u00f6sterge bono ihalesinde ortalama&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7728","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7728"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7728\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}