{"id":7675,"date":"2011-11-15T10:26:46","date_gmt":"2011-11-15T07:26:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=7675"},"modified":"2011-11-15T10:26:53","modified_gmt":"2011-11-15T07:26:53","slug":"borc-dinamigi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/borc-dinamigi\/","title":{"rendered":"Bor\u00e7 Dinami\u011fi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130talya\u2019da devlet tahvili faizlerindeki art\u0131\u015f bana T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2001 krizinde ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 an\u0131msat\u0131yor. \u015eimdi belki unutuldu.\u00a0Ama\u00a0o d\u00f6nemde y\u00fcksek reel faizin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumsuz bor\u00e7 dinami\u011finden T\u00fcrkiye \u00e7ok \u00e7ekti.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-830756643\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Nitekim makro iktisat ders notlar\u0131ma \u00fcnl\u00fc bor\u00e7 dinami\u011fi denklemini o s\u0131ralarda ekledim.\u00a0T\u00fcrkiye\u00a0krizi \u00e7abuk atlatt\u0131. S\u0131k\u0131 maliye politikas\u0131 bor\u00e7 dinami\u011fini h\u0131zla d\u00fczeltti. Ben tedbirli davrand\u0131m. Denklemi \u00f6\u011fretmeye devam ettim.<\/p>\n<p>Do\u011frusunu yapm\u0131\u015f\u0131m. Bor\u00e7 dinami\u011fi denklemi aniden geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin g\u00fcndeminde ba\u015f k\u00f6\u015feye oturdu. \u0130talya, Fransa, ABD, \u0130ngiltere vs. her yerde kamu borcu senaryolar\u0131\u00a0b\u00fcy\u00fck\u00f6nem kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Gene en g\u00fczelini The Economist yapm\u0131\u015f: www.economist.com\/debtdynamics. \u0130nteraktif bir grafik var. 13 \u00fclke ve 4 \u00fclke grubu i\u00e7in IMF tahminlerine g\u00f6re bor\u00e7 e\u011frilerini \u00e7iziyor. Varsay\u0131mlarla oynayabiliyorsunuz.\u00a0\u00c7ok\u00a0e\u011flendirici ve \u00f6\u011fretici.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Basit bir aritmetik<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Denklemi net ya da br\u00fct kamu borcu ile yazmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Keza, yerli\u00a0<span><strong>para<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0ve d\u00f6vizle bor\u00e7 ay\u0131rt edilebiliyor. Denklem borcun milli gelire oran\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutmak i\u00e7in gerekli ko\u015fullar\u0131 sapt\u0131yor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da br\u00fct kamu borcu ve sadece yerli para varsay\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n<p>Denklemin sol taraf\u0131nda reel faiz haddinden b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131yoruz. Elde edilen say\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faretine bak\u0131yoruz. S\u0131f\u0131rdan b\u00fcy\u00fckse bor\u00e7 oran\u0131 artar; k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fckse azal\u0131r, s\u0131f\u0131rsa sabit kal\u0131r. Reel faiz ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme, bor\u00e7 dinami\u011finin iki kritik belirleyicisidir.<\/p>\n<p>Denklemin sa\u011f taraf\u0131nda faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazla oran\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 bor\u00e7 oran\u0131 ile b\u00f6l\u00fcyoruz. \u0130kincisi veri; ilki ise denklemin politika de\u011fi\u015fkenidir. Yani reel faiz ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme veri iken bor\u00e7 oran\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutan faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 dengeyi ifade ediyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3791870039\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2011 i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye uygulayal\u0131m. Reel faizi y\u00fczde 2, b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 7 al\u0131nca fark y\u00fczde 5 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Borcu y\u00fczde 40\u2019ta sabit tutmak i\u00e7in faiz-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 dengede y\u00fczde 2 a\u00e7\u0131k gerekiyor. H\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bor\u00e7 oran\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 mucize budur.<\/p>\n<p>The Economist\u2019in hesab\u0131 ile \u0130talya\u2019ya bakal\u0131m. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131 bor\u00e7 oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 119; reel faiz y\u00fczde 3.1; b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 0.8; yani fark y\u00fczde 2.3 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Buradan bor\u00e7 oran\u0131n\u0131 sadece sabit tutmak i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2.7 faiz-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazla gerekti\u011fini anl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130lgin\u00e7 senaryolar<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Birka\u00e7 ilgin\u00e7 \u00f6rne\u011fe bakal\u0131m. \u0130talya\u2019da nominal faizin y\u00fczde 7.5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. Reel faiz y\u00fczde 5.7\u2019ye, dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile bor\u00e7 oran\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutan faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazla y\u00fczde 5.7\u2019ye t\u0131rman\u0131yor. Neden olmas\u0131n? T\u00fcrkiye 2001 krizi sonras\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6.5 tutturmu\u015ftu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2347637696\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n temel sorunu b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131; reel faiz de y\u00fckselince ba\u015f\u0131 derde giriyor. 2001 sonras\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fcksekti ama reel faiz inan\u0131lmaz d\u00fczeye t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 (y\u00fczde 15-20). Devasa faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazla ondan gerekti.<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011fer u\u00e7ta ABD yer al\u0131yor. Reel faiz y\u00fczde 1.5; b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.6; 2010 bor\u00e7 oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 94; faiz-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 dengede y\u00fczde 1 a\u00e7\u0131k bor\u00e7 oran\u0131n\u0131 sabitliyor. Halbuki IMF\u2019nin faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisi y\u00fczde 4.7; 2020\u2019de bor\u00e7 oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 129\u2019a y\u00fckseliyor. ABD\u2019de bor\u00e7 dinami\u011fini bozan b\u00fcy\u00fcme ya da faiz de\u011fil; do\u011frudan kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131. Mim koyun derim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130talya\u2019da devlet tahvili faizlerindeki art\u0131\u015f bana T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2001 krizinde ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 an\u0131msat\u0131yor. \u015eimdi belki unutuldu.\u00a0Ama\u00a0o d\u00f6nemde y\u00fcksek reel faizin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumsuz bor\u00e7 dinami\u011finden T\u00fcrkiye \u00e7ok&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7675"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7675\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}