{"id":7624,"date":"2011-11-14T10:17:51","date_gmt":"2011-11-14T07:17:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=7624"},"modified":"2011-11-14T10:18:03","modified_gmt":"2011-11-14T07:18:03","slug":"papandreu-ve-berlusconi%e2%80%99nin-istifasi-piyasalari-rahatlatacak-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/papandreu-ve-berlusconi%e2%80%99nin-istifasi-piyasalari-rahatlatacak-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Papandreu ve Berlusconi\u2019nin istifas\u0131 piyasalar\u0131 rahatlatacak m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>AB\u2019nin \u2018hasta adamlar\u0131\u2019 ilan edilen Yunanistan ve \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n Ba\u015fbakanlar\u0131 Papandreu ve Berlusconi, iktidardan ayr\u0131larak yerlerini \u2018teknisyen\u2019 h\u00fck\u00fcmetlere b\u0131rakt\u0131. Nedense piyasalar bu de\u011fi\u015fimleri, sorunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fcler. Peki Kom\u015fu\u2019da Papademos ve \u0130talya\u2019da Monti sorunlara \u00e7are olabilir mi? Gidenler de \u00f6nlemlere kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fillerdi ki! Di\u011fer yandan bu \u2018teknokratlar\u0131n\u2019 elinde sihirli de\u011fnek mi var da \u00fclkelerini bu s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 d\u00f6nemde bor\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00f6deyebilecek denli b\u00fcy\u00fctecekler? Kesinlikle hay\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3245105006\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Kas\u0131m ay\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 zorlu ge\u00e7ecek. Son y\u0131llarda; bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131m fonunun (\u00f6zellikle y\u00fcksek risk alabilen hedge -serbest- fonlar\u0131n) ve yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131n\u0131n finansal\/raporlama y\u0131l sonu Kas\u0131m ay\u0131na kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu nedenle Kas\u0131m ay\u0131n\u0131n kapan\u0131\u015f de\u011ferleri; hem fonlar\u0131n performanslar\u0131, hem de bu fonlar\u0131 y\u00f6netenlerin y\u0131l sonu ikramiyeleri (bonuslar) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli!<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki bu\u00e7uk hafta boyunca \u201cumutlarla ger\u00e7eklerin\u201d m\u00fccadelesine tan\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131z. \u0130yi kapanmas\u0131 \u201cumut edilen\u201d finansal piyasalarla, bu umutlar\u0131 desteklemekte zorlanan reel ekonomi-ger\u00e7ek hayat. \u00dcstelik ge\u00e7en seneki Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 ve y\u0131l sonu endeks de\u011ferlerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u201cumuda\u201d oynayanlar\u0131n i\u015finin zor oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6zellikle de ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki hem geli\u015fmi\u015f, hem de geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalarda&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftan\u0131n son g\u00fcn\u00fcnde borsalar Avrupa\u2019dan gelen \u201ciyi haberlerle\u201d y\u00fckseldi. Neydi bu \u201ciyi haberler\u201d derseniz, AB\u2019nin \u201chasta adamlar\u0131\u201d ilan edilmi\u015f olan Yunanistan ve \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n Ba\u015fbakanlar\u0131 Papandreu ve Berlusconi\u2019nin iktidardan ayr\u0131larak yerlerini \u201cteknisyen\u201d h\u00fck\u00fcmetlere b\u0131rakmas\u0131yd\u0131!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sorun \u00fclkeler \u00fcst\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Nedense piyasalar bu de\u011fi\u015fimleri, sorunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fcler! Peki Kom\u015fu\u2019da Papademos ve \u0130talya\u2019da Monti sorunlara \u00e7are olabilir mi? Gidenler de \u201c\u00f6nlemlere kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fillerdi ki! Di\u011fer yandan bu \u201cteknokratlar\u0131n\u201d elinde sihirli de\u011fnek mi var da \u00fclkelerini bu s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 d\u00f6nemde bor\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00f6deyebilecek denli b\u00fcy\u00fctecekler? M\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc bu?<\/p>\n<p>Bence, kesinlikle hay\u0131r! Neden mi? Her ikisi de b\u00fcrokrat\/teknokrat. Her ikisi de ne bir siyasi (se\u00e7im kazanm\u0131\u015f\/kaybetmi\u015f) ne de bir ekonomik risk alm\u0131\u015f (\u015firket kurmu\u015f\/bat\u0131rm\u0131\u015f, adam i\u015fe alm\u0131\u015f\/atm\u0131\u015f) de\u011filler. Di\u011fer yandan her ikisinin de ard\u0131nda bir halk deste\u011fi yok, sadece \u015fu anda \u201cse\u00e7ilmi\u015f olan\u201d politikac\u0131lar\u0131n deste\u011fi s\u00f6z konusu. Peki bu \u201cse\u00e7ilmi\u015f\u201d politikac\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131nda yeterli halk deste\u011fi var m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>Sanmam, en az\u0131ndan son iki y\u0131lda halka sorulmu\u015f de\u011fil ki&#8230; Eminim halka sorsalar; yani her iki \u00fclkede de bug\u00fcn se\u00e7im yapsalar; \u015fu andaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mdan \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 bir resim ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r. S\u0131rf bu sebeplerle piyasalar\u0131n sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 iyimserli\u011fin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Zira sorun \u201cteknokrat h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin\u201d \u00fclkeler baz\u0131nda \u00e7\u00f6zebilece\u011fi boyutu \u00e7oktan a\u015fm\u0131\u015f, \u00fclkeler\u00fcst\u00fc bir hal alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bunun da \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc t\u00fcm AB nezdinde bulunmak zorunda. Neler yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine dair 11.11.11 tarihli \u201cBen de \u00f6neriyorum\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131mda de\u011findim! Sorun \u201cvitrindeki adam\u0131\u201d de\u011fi\u015ftirerek \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemez!<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3179235583\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Atina\u2019da bir yaln\u0131z adam<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yunanistan\u2019da, ekonomik sorunlar\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi siyasi kriz, atadan siyaset\u00e7i olan Papandreu\u2019yu ba\u015fbakanl\u0131ktan etti. Bask\u0131lar \u00fczerine \u00fclkenin y\u00f6netimini Lukas Papadimos\u2019a teslim eden Yorgo Papandreu\u2019nun ad\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ba\u015f g\u00f6steren ekonomik krizin ilk siyasi kurban\u0131 olarak tarihe yaz\u0131l\u0131rken, sakin mizac\u0131 ve sorunlara ak\u0131lc\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131yla Yunan siyasetinde de iz b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Papandreu, Yunan bir baba ve Amerikal\u0131 bir annenin \u00e7ocu\u011fu olarak 1952 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin Minnesota\u2019ya ba\u011fl\u0131 St. Paul kentinde do\u011fdu.<\/p>\n<p>Yorgo Papandreu, babas\u0131 olan Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n eski ba\u015fbakanlar\u0131ndan Andreas Papandreu\u2019nun iste\u011fi \u00fczerine 1981\u2019de politikaya girerek, milletvekili se\u00e7ildi. Papandreu, ekonomik kriz ger\u00e7e\u011fiyle ilk kez 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda Davos\u2019ta kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya geldi. \u015eimdi Yunan bas\u0131n\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u201cAtina\u2019da yaln\u0131z bir adam\u201d olarak nitelenen Papandreu\u2019nun, PASOK\u2019un \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde yap\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen ola\u011fan kongresi \u00f6ncesinde, partinin liderli\u011fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyece\u011fine karar vermesi bekleniyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3117313198\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Piyasalarda umutla ger\u00e7e\u011fin m\u00fccadelesi<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Umutla ger\u00e7e\u011fin m\u00fccadelesinin ilk perdesini izleyece\u011fiz. Ancak \u201cumudun\u201d i\u015fi zor! Dow Jones\u2019un grafi\u011fine bakacak olursan\u0131z bunun \u201cteknik analize\u201d dayal\u0131 sebebini g\u00f6rebiliyoruz. Daha \u00f6nceleri destek olmu\u015f trend, \u015fimdi \u201cdiren\u00e7\u201d olmu\u015f durumda. Bu direncin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ilk denemede m\u00fcmk\u00fcn ol(a)mam\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu hafta 12.350 seviyesinden ge\u00e7en bu trendin test edilmesi (umudun \u00e7abalar\u0131yla) s\u00f6z konusu. A\u015f\u0131l\u0131r m\u0131? Belki 12.400-450 band\u0131 olabilir ancak \u00fczeri bence zor!<\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131 gitmekte zorlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayd\u0131\u011f\u0131m Dow Jones\u2019un hafta i\u00e7inde 11.950\u2019nin alt\u0131na inmesi kafalar\u0131 iyiden iyiye kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r! Hele ki haftan\u0131n ikincei yar\u0131s\u0131nda, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen 11.736\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na inilmesi ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131 piyasalarda \u201cumutlar\u0131n\u201d t\u00fckenmesine sebep olacakt\u0131r. Bu haftan\u0131n yatay gitmesi ve bu tahminlerin bir sonraki haftaya \u201cdevretmesi\u201d de sonucu \u00e7ok fazla de\u011fi\u015ftir(e)meyecektir!<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130MKB cephesinde durum \u00e7ok da farkl\u0131 de\u011fil!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendindeki \u0130MKB\u2019de de \u201cumudun y\u00fckseli\u015finin\u201d s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ihtimali hayli y\u00fcksek! Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda 58.450 seviyesine denk gelen trend, hafta sonunda 58.100\u2019e kadar geriliyor. Hafta boyunca bu tren \u00f6nemli bir diren\u00e7 olacak ve bu seviyelerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ihtimali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ise ana hedef halen daha 53.600 seviyelerinde. Ancak bu seviyeye bir anda gidilmesi ihtimali; en az\u0131ndan \u201cumut-ger\u00e7ek\u201d m\u00fccadelesi s\u0131ras\u0131nda o kadar da \u00e7abuk olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu arada hat\u0131rlatmakta fayda var. 58 binlere do\u011fru ya\u015fanacak bir y\u00fckseli\u015f geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z baz\u0131 bo\u015fluklar\u0131n da dolmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r ki bu da \u201cteknik a\u00e7\u0131dan\u201d sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 hareket olacakt\u0131r!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AB\u2019nin \u2018hasta adamlar\u0131\u2019 ilan edilen Yunanistan ve \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n Ba\u015fbakanlar\u0131 Papandreu ve Berlusconi, iktidardan ayr\u0131larak yerlerini \u2018teknisyen\u2019 h\u00fck\u00fcmetlere b\u0131rakt\u0131. Nedense piyasalar bu de\u011fi\u015fimleri, sorunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc olarak&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7624","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7624"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7624\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}