{"id":7502,"date":"2011-11-08T12:07:23","date_gmt":"2011-11-08T09:07:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=7502"},"modified":"2011-11-08T12:07:38","modified_gmt":"2011-11-08T09:07:38","slug":"ekim-enflasyonu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ekim-enflasyonu\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekim Enflasyonu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bayram\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn\u00fc ekonomi yazmakta teredd\u00fct ettim. Pazar yaz\u0131ma \u00e7ok iltifat ald\u0131m. \u201cHoca b\u0131rak art\u0131k ekonomiyi, b\u00f6yle\u00a0genel\u00a0konular yaz\u201d temas\u0131 h\u00e2kimdi. Do\u011frusu, ekonomi yaz\u0131lar\u0131m art\u0131k ilgi \u00e7ekmiyor mu diye \u015f\u00fcphelendim. Neyse, huylu huyundan vazge\u00e7mezmi\u015f&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3008330478\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Euro\u00a0krizi, sonunda Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n siyasi co\u011frafyas\u0131na yans\u0131yor. Papandreu\u2019nun referandum resti planlar\u0131 bozdu. Muhalefet elini ta\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131na koymak zorunda kald\u0131. G\u00fcndeme \u00f6nce geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet, ard\u0131ndan erken se\u00e7im geldi.<\/p>\n<p>Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n siyasi yap\u0131s\u0131 ilgin\u00e7tir. \u00dclkeyi az say\u0131da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc aile y\u00f6netir. Aradaki kavga\u00a0\u00e7ok\u00a0kanl\u0131 ge\u00e7er. Neticede bir hanedan gider, \u00f6b\u00fcr\u00fc gelir. Ya\u015fanan kriz bu oligar\u015fik d\u00fczeni k\u00f6kten h\u0131rpal\u0131yor. Tamamen da\u011f\u0131tmas\u0131 ihtimali bile belirdi. Merakla izliyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Beklendi\u011fi gibi, euro krizi \u0130talyan siyasetine de s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. \u0130talya asl\u0131nda bat\u0131k de\u011fil; ama\u00a0b\u00fcy\u00fck\u00a0ekonomi yani hazm\u0131 zor. Niteli\u011fi Yunanistan\u2019dan farkl\u0131 olsa da, \u00e7ok ciddi siyasi sorunlar\u0131 var. Krizin \u0130talyan siyasetinde de bir d\u00f6nemi bitirece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. G\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ekim\u2019de y\u00fcksek enflasyon<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ekim enflasyonu man\u015fetlere \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Vergi art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u00a0ve\u00a0kur etkisi ile t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n t\u0131rmanaca\u011f\u0131 biliniyordu. Merkez Bankas\u0131 da kamuoyunu uyarm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Piyasa Ekim\u2019de y\u00fczde 2.8 bekliyordu. Y\u00fczde 3.3 geldi. B\u00f6ylece y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 7.7 ile 2011\u2019in en y\u00fcksek de\u011ferine ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131nda enflasyon ekonomi g\u00fcndeminde geri plana d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ocak-Nisan aras\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 5\u2019in alt\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m. May\u0131s\u2019ta ani bir s\u0131\u00e7rama ile y\u00fczde 7.2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Haziran-Eyl\u00fcl aras\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 6.5 civar\u0131nda ge\u00e7irdi.<\/p>\n<p>Son d\u00f6nem enflasyon tekrar ilgi oda\u011f\u0131 oldu. \u0130ki neden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Biri, maliyet y\u00fckselten geli\u015fmelerdir. Ekim\u2019de ortalama sepet kur 2.17 TL ile tarihi zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ayn\u0131 anda h\u00fck\u00fcmet maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131kma karar\u0131 ald\u0131. Dolayl\u0131 vergilere zam yapt\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3479485979\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Di\u011feri \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz-y\u00fcksek kur\u201d politikas\u0131na g\u00fcvensizliktir. Sert kur hareketi ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahaleleri yeni politikaya muhalifleri heyecanland\u0131rd\u0131. \u00d6zetle, enflasyondaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin kal\u0131c\u0131 (ve tehlikeli) oldu\u011funu savunmak kolayla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Daima b\u00f6yledir. Enflasyon tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 d\u00f6ner dola\u015f\u0131r para politikas\u0131 ve faizlerde d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcmlenir. Fiyatlardaki y\u00fckseli\u015f ge\u00e7ici ve arz k\u00f6kenli ise faiz de\u011fi\u015fmez. Kal\u0131c\u0131 ve talep k\u00f6kenli ise faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gerekir. Olay\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fc budur.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Y\u00fckseli\u015f ge\u00e7ici<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu konuyu ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz aylarda epey i\u015fledim. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u201cge\u00e7ici ve arz k\u00f6kenli\u201d g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc anlatt\u0131m. Nitekim son Eflasyon Raporunda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2012 i\u00e7in y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahmini y\u00fczde 5.2\u2019dir. Kat\u0131l\u0131yorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1053996359\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Dolayl\u0131 vergi zamlar\u0131na bakal\u0131m. K\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde mutlaka enflasyonu y\u00fckseltir. Ama b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r. Yani orta d\u00f6nemde toplam talebi daralt\u0131c\u0131 etki yapar. O nedenle enflasyonu azd\u0131rmaz, bilakis s\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim kira kalemine (onsuz olmaz!). Grafi\u011fi haz\u0131r ama bayram g\u00fcn\u00fc koymak istemedim. Y\u0131ll\u0131k kira art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de y\u00fczde 4.5\u2019ten Ekim\u2019de y\u00fczde 4.6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. O kadar. Laf\u0131 uzatmayaca\u011f\u0131m. Mevcut verilerde enflasyon \u00fczerinde bir talep bask\u0131s\u0131 i\u015fareti g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Okuyucular\u0131m\u0131n berber fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da merak etti\u011fini biliyorum. Bug\u00fcnl\u00fck bu kadar; nas\u0131l olsa enflasyon ve para politikas\u0131 konular\u0131na geri d\u00f6nece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bayram\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn\u00fc ekonomi yazmakta teredd\u00fct ettim. Pazar yaz\u0131ma \u00e7ok iltifat ald\u0131m. \u201cHoca b\u0131rak art\u0131k ekonomiyi, b\u00f6yle\u00a0genel\u00a0konular yaz\u201d temas\u0131 h\u00e2kimdi. Do\u011frusu, ekonomi yaz\u0131lar\u0131m art\u0131k ilgi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7502","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7502"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7502\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7502"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7502"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7502"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}