{"id":7468,"date":"2011-11-04T12:30:52","date_gmt":"2011-11-04T09:30:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=7468"},"modified":"2011-11-04T16:13:11","modified_gmt":"2011-11-04T13:13:11","slug":"enflasyon-hizlandi-ama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/enflasyon-hizlandi-ama\/","title":{"rendered":"Enflasyon H\u0131zland\u0131 Ama"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ekim ay\u0131 enflasyon rakamlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bir y\u00f6n\u00fcyle s\u00fcrpriz yok denilebilir. Enflasyon y\u00fckseldi. Bunun b\u00f6yle olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015f, sa\u011f\u0131r sultan bile duymu\u015ftu. A\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon verileri bir y\u00f6n\u00fcyle de s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131r. T\u00fcketici ve \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131zlar\u0131 beklenenin \u00e7ok \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Her iki kalemde de hem ayl\u0131k hem de 12 ayl\u0131k enflasyon bulgular\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n \u00fczerinde uzla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 say\u0131lar\u0131 ciddi marjlarla a\u015ft\u0131. Ekim ay\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon verileri bu nedenlerle s\u00fcrpriz olarak alg\u0131land\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4078924054\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonbahar\u0131nda enflasyonun beklenin de \u00f6tesinde h\u0131zlanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 bir yandan bunun nedenlerine d\u00f6n\u00fck bir soru\u015fturma ba\u015flatt\u0131 bir yandan da iktisat politikalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck tart\u0131\u015fmalara yol verdi. \u00d6zellikle Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131nda bir y\u00f6n ya da t\u00fcr de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine ihtiya\u00e7 duyup duymayaca\u011f\u0131 merak konusu haline geldi.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomiyi izleyenler Ekim ay\u0131nda enflasyonun (T\u00dcFE) g\u00f6rece daha h\u0131zl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyorlard\u0131. Ayl\u0131k enflasyon h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 2-2.5 civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyordu. Ekim ay\u0131nda t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3.27 oran\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.\u00a0 Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme bekleneni neredeyse kendisi kadar a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 2002 y\u0131l\u0131ndan buyana en y\u00fcksek ayl\u0131k fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 olmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da \u00f6nemliydi.<\/p>\n<p>Ayl\u0131k bazdaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f ku\u015fkusuz y\u0131ll\u0131k (12 ayl\u0131k) enflasyon h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n da beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131na neden oldu. y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon da Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 6.15 d\u00fczeyinden Ekim ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7.66 oran\u0131na z\u0131plad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Benzer e\u011filimlerin \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 (\u00dcFE) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. \u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 1.60 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. T\u00dcFE kadar olmasa da bu da beklentilerin \u00fczerinde bir art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131yd\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda da \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 12.1 oran\u0131ndan Ekim ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 12.6 d\u00fczeyine y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n<p>Enflasyondaki ger\u00e7ek e\u011filimi yans\u0131tmas\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00f6zel bir merakla izlenen \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun da ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 1.81 y\u00fckselmesi enflasyonun kendi i\u00e7inde ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 ivmenin de y\u00fckselme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 7.67 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. Bunun man\u015fet enflasyon h\u0131z\u0131na (y\u00fczde 7.66) e\u015fitlenmi\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131 enflasyonun ilerideki olas\u0131 hareket deseni a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir uyar\u0131 oldu\u011funu kabul etmek gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1353062320\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ekim ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin b\u00fct\u00fcn fiyat indekslerinin enflasyonda h\u0131zlanma bilgisi veriyor olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bunun ciddi bir enflasyon alarm\u0131 olarak alg\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek zor. Hem enflasyonla yak\u0131ndan ilgili politika otoritesi (Merkez Bankas\u0131) hem de g\u00f6zlemci ve yorumcular Ekim ay\u0131 enflasyon bulgular\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece sakin kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131lar. Enflasyondaki h\u0131zlanman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ar\u0131zi nedenlerden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmeler bu s\u00fckunetin ana nedeni.<\/p>\n<p>Ar\u0131zi nedenlerden kas\u0131t enflasyondaki h\u0131zlanman\u0131n genel bir talep bask\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok d\u00f6viz kuru y\u00fckselmesi, vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, kamu otoritesi taraf\u0131ndan belirlenen fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015flar ya da mevsimlik etkiler gibi talep d\u0131\u015f\u0131 etkenler\u00a0 taraf\u0131ndan y\u00fckseltilmi\u015f olmas\u0131. Bu t\u00fcr itici fakt\u00f6rlerin tek seferlik etki yarataca\u011f\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hareket yaratmayaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ekim ay\u0131 enflasyon say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda h\u0131zlanman\u0131n arkas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bu t\u00fcr t\u00fcr etkenlerin yatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin elektrik-do\u011falgaz gibi enerji grubu \u00fcr\u00fcnlere yap\u0131lan zamlar bu grupta fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 7.4 d\u00fczeyine, t\u00fct\u00fcn mamullerine getirilen \u00d6TV art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da bunlar\u0131n fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 14 oran\u0131na y\u00fckseltti\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu iki grubun enflasyon \u00fczerinde y\u00fczde 1.4 puan y\u00fckseltici etki yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaplan\u0131yor. G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f da enflasyonu bir puan yukar\u0131ya \u00e7ekmi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. D\u00f6viz kurundaki y\u00fckseli\u015ften do\u011frudan etkilenen telefon vb ekipman,\u00a0 mobilya, g\u00f6rsel ve i\u015fitsel sistemler gibi kalemlerde g\u00f6zlenen y\u00fcksek fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131zlar\u0131 da kur ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011finin Ekim ay\u0131nda enflasyonun h\u0131zlanmas\u0131na \u00f6nemli katk\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu veriler Ekim ay\u0131nda enflasyonda g\u00f6zlenen h\u0131zlanman\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda tekrar etmeyece\u011fini, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 ve sonras\u0131nda enflasyonun daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck noktalara gerileyebilece\u011fini ve y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon rakam\u0131n\u0131n da Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rda tutulabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. B\u00f6yle bir e\u011filim ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon baca\u011f\u0131nda hala g\u00f6rece rahat olaca\u011f\u0131 ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131lardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2933526584\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekim ay\u0131 enflasyon rakamlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bir y\u00f6n\u00fcyle s\u00fcrpriz yok denilebilir. Enflasyon y\u00fckseldi. Bunun b\u00f6yle olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015f, sa\u011f\u0131r sultan bile duymu\u015ftu. A\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon verileri&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7468","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7468","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7468"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7468\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7468"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7468"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7468"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}