{"id":713,"date":"2011-06-02T09:36:06","date_gmt":"2011-06-02T06:36:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=713"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:34:13","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:34:13","slug":"o-sayginlik-kolay-kazanilmadi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/o-sayginlik-kolay-kazanilmadi\/","title":{"rendered":"O Sayg\u0131nl\u0131k Kolay Kazan\u0131lmad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok da y\u00fcksek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermek i\u00e7in TCMB raporlar\u0131nda l\u00fctfen anlams\u0131z g\u00f6stergelere ba\u015fvurmay\u0131n.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-424649619\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce bu d\u00fcnyaya veda eden ve tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f bir iktisat\u00e7\u0131 olan R. Dornbusch\u2019un \u00f6zl\u00fc bir s\u00f6z\u00fc vard\u0131. Mealen \u015f\u00f6yle diyordu: \u201cGeli\u015fmekte olan bir \u00fclkenin merkez bankas\u0131, paras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na piyasalar\u0131 ikna etmek \u00fczere \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 reel kur endeksleri hesaplay\u0131p kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131klamaya ba\u015flarsa, bilin ki o \u00fclkenin paras\u0131 de\u011ferlidir ve \u00fclke \u00f6nemli sorunlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r.\u201d<br \/>\nUluslararas\u0131 finans yaz\u0131n\u0131na yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 katk\u0131larla bilinen Dornbusch\u2019un bu s\u00f6z\u00fc, \u00f6zellikle d\u00f6viz cinsinden y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerle bo\u011fu\u015fan finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne, \u015firketler kesimine ve hazineye sahip olan geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erliydi. Maliye politikas\u0131nda \u2018her t\u00fcrl\u00fc su\u00e7u\u2019 i\u015flerken s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle d\u00f6viz kurunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in s\u00f6ylenmi\u015fti. Oysa kuram ve deneyim, maliye politikas\u0131 o denli bozukken, d\u00f6viz kurunun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyordu. Bu \u00fclkeler ise bir yandan para birimlerinin de\u011ferli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; aksine, iktisadi temelleri yans\u0131tt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ufukta bir kriz olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kan\u0131tlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlard\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ko\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015fti <\/strong><br \/>\nEninde sonunda bu t\u00fcr suni geli\u015fmeler, yetkililer ne derlerse desinler bir yerden patlak veriyor; ger\u00e7ek ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ama bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, veriler orta yerde duruyorken, \u2018kanlar\u0131n\u0131n son damlas\u0131na kadar\u2019 onlar\u0131n asl\u0131nda \u00f6yle olmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, farkl\u0131 okunmalar\u0131 gerekti\u011fini kan\u0131tlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan kurumlar g\u00fcvenilirliklerini yitiriyorlar. Elbette, Dornbusch\u2019un bu saptamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an ko\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015fti. \u00c7o\u011fu y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomisi art\u0131k daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir ekonomiye sahip.<br \/>\nKo\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015fti dedim, ama o \u2018nafile savunma\u2019 anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131lan pek de\u011fi\u015fmemi\u015f. Ba\u015fka bi\u00e7imlerde kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kabiliyor. T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB), 2001 krizinin hemen sonras\u0131nda ekonomi politikas\u0131n\u0131 tasarlamak ve uygulamaktan sorumlu di\u011fer kamu kurumlar\u0131 gibi sayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yitirmi\u015fti. Bu sayg\u0131nl\u0131k kayb\u0131 hakl\u0131 ya da haks\u0131z olabilir; tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m o de\u011fil, sayg\u0131nl\u0131k yitmi\u015fti. Sayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n tekrar kazan\u0131lmas\u0131 uzun bir m\u00fccadeleyi gerektirdi. TCMB\u2019nin s\u00f6yledikleri ile yapt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 oldu\u011funun anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ve bu yap\u0131lanlar\u0131n \u00f6nceden a\u00e7\u0131klanan ama\u00e7lara uygun sonu\u00e7lar vermeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 ile sayg\u0131nl\u0131k yeniden kazan\u0131ld\u0131.<br \/>\nDaha fazla de\u015fmeye gerek yok; s\u00f6yleyece\u011fim \u015fudur: Y\u00fcksek kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndan TCMB olarak neden rahats\u0131z oldu\u011funuzu anl\u0131yoruz. Bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in neden farkl\u0131 bir yol izledi\u011finizi de anl\u0131yor ve buna cesaret etti\u011finiz i\u00e7in size sayg\u0131 duyuyoruz. San\u0131yorum o izledi\u011finiz yolun, ba\u015fka kurumlar\u0131n da devreye girmeleri ile desteklenmedik\u00e7e sonu\u00e7 vermesinin ne denli zor oldu\u011funun siz de fark\u0131ndas\u0131n\u0131z. En az\u0131ndan bu k\u00f6\u015fede bu zorluk hakk\u0131nda \u00e7ok yaz\u0131ld\u0131, \u00e7izildi. \u00dcstelik daha kararlar\u0131n\u0131z yeni a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan itibaren bu tema s\u00fcrekli yer ald\u0131 bu k\u00f6\u015fede. Ama\u00e7, yap\u0131c\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde sizi uyarmakt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sessizli\u011fi se\u00e7mek <\/strong><br \/>\nKredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok da y\u00fcksek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermek i\u00e7in TCMB raporlar\u0131nda l\u00fctfen anlams\u0131z g\u00f6stergelere ba\u015fvurmay\u0131n. Olmuyor. Yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z i\u015f, ba\u015fka kurumlar\u0131, bu arada maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6reve \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rarak, sizi o \u00e7ok \u00fcrk\u00fcten kredi geni\u015flemesini yava\u015flatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak. Bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fene kadar da g\u00f6sterge ard\u0131na g\u00f6sterge \u00fcretmek yerine, sessiz olmay\u0131 se\u00e7erek, yeni a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verilerin sizin arzulad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z y\u00f6nde sonu\u00e7 vermesini beklemek. Ba\u015fka kurumlar devreye girmiyorsa da durumu a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde kamuoyuna anlatmak. Yoksa bilmem ka\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama al\u0131nca ya da mevcut veriye kafa\u00fcst\u00fc ters d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131nca, asl\u0131nda kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 o kadar da y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131km\u0131yor demek de\u011fil. Sa\u011fda solda bu g\u00f6stergeler hakk\u0131nda \u2018e\u011flenceli\u2019 raporlar dola\u015f\u0131yor, muhtemelen sizler de okuyorsunuz. A\u015f\u0131nma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 -ne yaz\u0131k ki- olan sayg\u0131nl\u0131k, ki\u015filerin sayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011fil, \u00f6yle olsa \u2018ne yapal\u0131m, onlar da \u00f6yle yapmasayd\u0131\u2019 der ge\u00e7eriz, TCMB\u2019nin sayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131. O sayg\u0131nl\u0131k kolay kazan\u0131lmad\u0131 ve kayb\u0131 t\u00fcm T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi olumsuz etkiler.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Fatih \u00d6ZATAY &#8211; Radikal Gazetesi<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok da y\u00fcksek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermek i\u00e7in TCMB raporlar\u0131nda l\u00fctfen anlams\u0131z g\u00f6stergelere ba\u015fvurmay\u0131n. Birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce bu d\u00fcnyaya veda eden ve tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-713","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/713","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=713"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/713\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}