{"id":7085,"date":"2011-10-27T13:16:55","date_gmt":"2011-10-27T10:16:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=7085"},"modified":"2011-10-27T13:17:04","modified_gmt":"2011-10-27T10:17:04","slug":"taslar-yerinden-oynayinca","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/taslar-yerinden-oynayinca\/","title":{"rendered":"Ta\u015flar Yerinden Oynay\u0131nca"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda politika de\u011fi\u015ftirerek ta\u015flar\u0131 yerinden oynatt\u0131.<br \/>\n&#8220;S\u0131f\u0131r reel faize&#8221; odaklanan, zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar ve likidite ara\u00e7lar\u0131 ile \u00e7oklu hedeflere ula\u015fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bu politika, ne yaz\u0131k ki Avrupa ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan kaynaklanan nedenlerin de devreye girmesiyle ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olamad\u0131.<br \/>\nSon bir ayda ise T\u00fcrk finans piyasalar\u0131 belirsizli\u011fin doru\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemden ge\u00e7ti.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2186648795\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>MERKEZ S\u00d6ZLE M\u00dcDAHALE ED\u0130YOR<\/strong><br \/>\nD\u00fcn Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n belirsizli\u011fin biraz da olsa azalmas\u0131na neden olaca\u011f\u0131 ku\u015fkusuz. Ancak bu belirginli\u011fin ba\u015fka belirsizlikleri beraberinde getirece\u011fi ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 da a\u00e7\u0131k.<br \/>\nAnla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor ki Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n politika faizini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye hi\u00e7 niyeti yok.<br \/>\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131 enflasyon, d\u00f6viz kuru, banka kredilerindeki art\u0131\u015f, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, finansal istikrar ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u00e2l\u00e2 bankan\u0131n u\u011fra\u015f\u0131 alanlar\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor.<br \/>\nBu kez y\u00fczde 5.75 ile 12 aras\u0131nda olu\u015fan faiz koridoru, zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar ve likidite politikalar\u0131 ile hem TL&#8217;ye de\u011fer kazand\u0131r\u0131lmak isteniyor hem de s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir para politikas\u0131yla istikrar sa\u011flanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<br \/>\n\u0130\u015fte belirginlik yarat\u0131lan bu noktalarla sonuca nas\u0131l ula\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 konusunda piyasan\u0131n kafas\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<br \/>\nPiyasa oyuncular\u0131n\u0131n vard\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7 \u015fu: Piyasada faizler artacak, enflasyon y\u00fckselecek, banka k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne paralel olarak \u0130MKB endeksi d\u00fc\u015fecek. TL&#8217;nin d\u0131\u015f de\u011ferinde ise k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede oynakl\u0131k artacak.<br \/>\nBu tabloyu Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n durumuna da bakarak yorumlamak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>BA\u015eBAKAN&#8217;A ANLATILMASI GEREKEN NOKTA<\/strong><br \/>\nBa\u015fbakan&#8217;\u0131n faizin enflasyonun nedeni oldu\u011fu anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve inanc\u0131 ile Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n faizleri art\u0131rmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu bilmeyen yok.<br \/>\nBanka da buna uydu.<br \/>\nNe var ki piyasada olu\u015fan faizler Ba\u015fbakan&#8217;\u0131n bu direktifini dinlemedi. Son olaylarda \u00e7ift hanelere \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hazine&#8217;nin bu faiz d\u00fczeyinden bor\u00e7lanmak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131 ku\u015fkusuz. D\u00fc\u015fen TL&#8217;nin de ihracat\u00e7\u0131 olmayan reel kesimi ne kadar ma\u011fdur etti\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k.<br \/>\nMerkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizle verdi\u011fi 60 milyar TL&#8217;lik bir haftal\u0131k repo ile de iyi para kazanma f\u0131rsat\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 mevcut.<br \/>\nOysa ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda Merkez Bankas\u0131 faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in \u00e7abalamasa ve &#8220;yeni&#8221; politika bile\u015fimini ortaya koymasa, bunun yerine k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerini 25 ya da 50 baz puan art\u0131rsayd\u0131 \u015fimdi \u00e7ok daha dengeli ve sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir durum ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131.<br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye 2008 krizinde oldu\u011fu gibi sadece d\u0131\u015far\u0131daki olumsuzluklardan etkilenecekti.<br \/>\nBu politika belki de bizi kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir \u00fclke notu olan BBB&#8217;nin al\u0131nmas\u0131na kadar bile g\u00f6t\u00fcrebilecekti.<br \/>\nDolay\u0131s\u0131yla Ba\u015fbakan&#8217;a yak\u0131n \u00e7evresinin bu olu\u015fumlar\u0131 objektif olarak anlatmas\u0131n\u0131n yararl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<br \/>\nMerkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n politika faizini sabit tutmas\u0131 ile faizin ve enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclemeyece\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011finin Ba\u015fbakan&#8217;\u0131n huzurunda bir kez daha ortaya konulmas\u0131nda yarar oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<br \/>\nAksi halde s\u0131f\u0131r reel faiz, \u00e7ift haneli y\u00fcksek enflasyon oran\u0131 d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 kolayl\u0131kla harcanabilecek.<br \/>\nHele hem faizi hem de d\u00f6vizi kontrol eden bir Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131lacak riskleri art\u0131racak.<br \/>\nBunlar\u0131 Ba\u015fbakan&#8217;\u0131n bilmesinde yarar var. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc sonunda fatura kendisine \u00e7\u0131kacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda politika de\u011fi\u015ftirerek ta\u015flar\u0131 yerinden oynatt\u0131. &#8220;S\u0131f\u0131r reel faize&#8221; odaklanan, zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar ve likidite ara\u00e7lar\u0131 ile \u00e7oklu hedeflere ula\u015fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":418,"featured_media":5395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7085","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7085","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/418"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7085"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7085\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7085"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7085"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7085"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}