{"id":7053,"date":"2011-10-27T09:07:54","date_gmt":"2011-10-27T06:07:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=7053"},"modified":"2011-10-27T09:08:02","modified_gmt":"2011-10-27T06:08:02","slug":"para-politikasinda-neler-oluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/para-politikasinda-neler-oluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Para Politikas\u0131nda Neler Oluyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yo\u011fun bir g\u00fcn oldu. Y\u0131l\u0131n son Enflasyon Raporu ve Ekim Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131 \u00f6zeti yay\u0131nland\u0131. Ayn\u0131 anda Ba\u015fkan Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 TL\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek be\u015f maddelik \u201ceylem plan\u0131n\u0131\u201d tan\u0131tt\u0131. Bir g\u00f6zlemle ba\u015flamak istiyorum. \u201cEylem plan\u0131\u201d ifadesini abart\u0131l\u0131 buluyorum. Sunulan, bir tedbirler k\u00fcmesi de\u011fildir.\u00a0Merkez\u00a0Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz kurunda olu\u015fan sert hareket kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki tavr\u0131 ve m\u00fcdahale gerek\u00e7eleri \u00f6zetleniyor. Kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1187865732\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Enflasyon Raporu 110 sayfa. Grafik ve tablolara ek olarak g\u00fcncel sorulara ek \u201ckutular\u201d a\u00e7\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131 15 sayfa. Raporu \u00f6zetliyor art\u0131 eylem plan\u0131 var. Toplant\u0131 tutana\u011f\u0131 ise k\u0131saama\u00a0\u00f6z; 4 sayfa.<\/p>\n<p>Malzeme b\u00f6yle bol olunca, iktisat\u00e7\u0131lara tart\u0131\u015facak\u00a0\u00e7ok\u00a0konu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Tek yaz\u0131da hepsine giremem. Do\u011frusu raporun kutular\u0131n\u0131 daha okuyamad\u0131m. Bug\u00fcn genel bir de\u011ferlendirme yap\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Para politikas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>2003 sonras\u0131nda uygulanan\u00a0para\u00a0politikas\u0131na kamuoyu al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Politika enstr\u00fcman\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n gecelik bor\u00e7lanma faizi idi. Faiz art\u0131nca para politikas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131, inince gev\u015fedi deniyordu. 2010 sonuna kadar b\u00f6yle devam etti. Sonra para politikas\u0131 k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir de\u011fi\u015fim ge\u00e7irdi. Politika enstr\u00fcman\u0131 haftal\u0131k fonlama faizi oldu. Gecelik bor\u00e7lanma ve fonlama faizleri aras\u0131ndaki aral\u0131k (faiz koridoru) geni\u015fledi. Zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n aktif kullan\u0131m\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Para politikas\u0131 bu \u015fekilde \u201cezber d\u0131\u015f\u0131na\u201d ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131nca tefsiri de zorla\u015ft\u0131. Birden fazla ara\u00e7 i\u015fleri kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u201cS\u0131kma\u201d\u00a0ve\u00a0\u201cgev\u015feme\u201d kavramlar\u0131n\u0131n eski basitli\u011fi kalm\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131lara gizlenen \u015feytan\u0131 bulup \u00e7\u0131kartmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda i\u00e7 i\u00e7e \u00fc\u00e7 soru vard\u0131r. Ne yapt\u0131? Neden yapt\u0131? Do\u011fru mu yapt\u0131? Sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 analizin \u00f6nko\u015fulu ilkinde hata yapmamakt\u0131r. Ben de oradan ba\u015fl\u0131yorum. D\u00fcnk\u00fc resme g\u00f6re para politikas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131 m\u0131? Evet s\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131 diyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Mali piyasan\u0131n alg\u0131lay\u0131\u015f\u0131 da b\u00f6yledir. Zaten belli olmu\u015ftu. Kur a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ve faiz yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. D\u00fcn e\u011filim s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Sepet kur 2.10 TL\u2019ye geriledi. G\u00f6sterge tahvil faizi y\u00fczde 10\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3846774891\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Zor tercihler<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Denizciler iyi bilir. Sert havada d\u00fcmen tutmak zordur. Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi de zor i\u015fe soyundu. Olumsuz k\u00fcresel konjonkt\u00fcrde d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131ktan kaynaklanan k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 asgari hasarla d\u00fczeltmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Kim demi\u015f \u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d kolay diye? Kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na bir dizi tats\u0131z \u00f6d\u00fcnle\u015fme (trade-off) \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Kurla ba\u015fl\u0131yal\u0131m. TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kaybetmesi gerekiyor. Ama \u00e7ok de\u011fer kaybederse zarar veriyor. Enflasyon t\u0131rman\u0131yor. D\u00f6viz bor\u00e7lu \u00f6zel kesimin bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 bozuluyor. K\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve mali istikrar etkileniyor.<\/p>\n<p>Faizin a\u00e7mazlar\u0131na gelelim. K\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde i\u00e7 talebi k\u0131sarak enflasyonu ve d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumlu etkiliyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor ve TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f dengede kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fczeltmeyi \u00f6teliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1944185146\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bence yap\u0131lan bir orta yol aray\u0131\u015f\u0131d\u0131r. Fonlama faizinde art\u0131\u015f hem d\u00f6vizde spek\u00fclasyonu, hem kredi kanal\u0131n\u0131 hedefliyor. Ayn\u0131 anda bor\u00e7lanma faizinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutulmas\u0131 s\u0131cak paran\u0131n keyfini ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131yor. Bilmem anlatabildim mi?<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcnl\u00fck bu kadar; tart\u0131\u015facak \u00e7ok \u015fey kald\u0131. Devam ederim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yo\u011fun bir g\u00fcn oldu. Y\u0131l\u0131n son Enflasyon Raporu ve Ekim Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131 \u00f6zeti yay\u0131nland\u0131. Ayn\u0131 anda Ba\u015fkan Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 TL\u2019yi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7053","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7053"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7053\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7053"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}