{"id":6999,"date":"2011-10-26T09:44:55","date_gmt":"2011-10-26T06:44:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6999"},"modified":"2011-10-26T09:45:12","modified_gmt":"2011-10-26T06:45:12","slug":"is-insanlarimizin-kuresel-risk-algisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/is-insanlarimizin-kuresel-risk-algisi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130\u015f \u0130nsanlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n K\u00fcresel Risk Alg\u0131s\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS)<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde \u0130stanbul&#8217;da bir araya getirdi\u011fi i\u015f adamlar\u0131 ve bankac\u0131larla ilgin\u00e7 bir<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3594272541\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>toplant\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015f. Yapm\u0131\u015f diyorum \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ben bu toplant\u0131y\u0131 RBS&#8217;in yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 24 Ekim tarihli &#8220;Emerging Market<\/p>\n<p>Stategy&#8221; raporundan \u00f6\u011frendim.<\/p>\n<p>Toplant\u0131da ula\u015f\u0131lan sonu\u00e7lar kadar toplant\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6ntemi de ilgin\u00e7. RBS bir t\u00fcr nab\u0131z yoklam\u0131\u015f. Kat\u0131lan 100 kadar T\u00fcrk i\u015f<\/p>\n<p>insan\u0131na d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki riskler, Avrupa sorunlar\u0131,\u00a0 enflasyon e\u011filimleri vb gibi sorular sorulup, verilen<\/p>\n<p>se\u00e7enekleri s\u0131ralamalar\u0131 istenmi\u015f. Hemen ard\u0131ndan, yat\u0131r\u0131m uzman be\u015f ki\u015finin kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir panelde\u00a0 bu cevaplar<\/p>\n<p>tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, yan\u0131tlar bir perspektife oturtulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Timoty Ash&#8217;\u0131n raporlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belgede\u00a0 toplam 13 soru, bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131tlar\u0131 ve yorumlar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor.Bunlardan T\u00fcrk i\u015f<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1570386718\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>insan\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisine d\u00f6n\u00fck risk alg\u0131s\u0131 hakk\u0131nda bilgi veren birka\u00e7 tanesini sizinle payla\u015fmak istiyorum.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lara sorulan sorulardan bir tanesi\u00a0 2011-2012 d\u00f6neminde y\u00fckselen piyasalar\u0131n (emerging markets) kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/p>\n<p>en b\u00fcy\u00fck riskin ne oldu\u011fu sorusu. RBS&#8217;\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmeye sundu\u011fu olas\u0131 riskler \u015f\u00f6yle;\u00a0 Euro b\u00f6lgesinde bor\u00e7 krizi\/<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1302874662\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>senkronize bir k\u00fcresel yava\u015flama\/ \u00c7in&#8217;de olas\u0131 bir sert ini\u015f\/ geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerdeki QE uygulamas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6netimi\/enflasyon.<\/p>\n<p>RBS&#8217;nin bu sorunlar\u0131 en \u00f6nemli riskler olarak de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar k\u00fcresel yava\u015flamay\u0131 ilk s\u0131raya (y\u00fczde 43.3) koymu\u015f. Euro b\u00f6lgesindeki bor\u00e7 krizi de \u00e7ok yak\u0131n bir y\u00fczde<\/p>\n<p>ile ( y\u00fczde 42.3) ikinci s\u0131rada yer al\u0131yor. RBS&#8217;\u0131n \u00f6nemli buldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131lan\u00a0 \u00c7in ekonomisindeki balon ve sert ini\u015f<\/p>\n<p>olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 T\u00fcrk i\u015f insanlar\u0131n\u0131n cidi bir risk olarak alg\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 (y\u00fczde 5.2) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Rapor bunu s\u00fcrpriz olarak<\/p>\n<p>de\u011ferlendiriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Zaten sorulan sorulardan birisi do\u011frudan \u00c7in ile ilgili. \u00c7in ekonomisindeki balonun patlay\u0131p (sert ini\u015f-kriz)<\/p>\n<p>patlamayaca\u011f\u0131 (yumu\u015fak ini\u015f) sorulmu\u015f. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fczde 39.6&#8217;s\u0131\u00a0 balonun sonunda patlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ama bunu bir<\/p>\n<p>orta-uzun vade riski olarak g\u00f6d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k\u00a0 y\u00fczde 20.4 l\u00fck bir grup balonun var oldu\u011funu kabul<\/p>\n<p>ediyor ama \u00c7in&#8217;li y\u00f6neticilerin bunu iyi y\u00f6neteceklerini ekonomideki ini\u015fin yumu\u015fak olmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacaklar\u0131n\u0131, yani<\/p>\n<p>krizden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 ifade ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yan\u0131tlara bakarak T\u00fcrk\u00a0 i\u015f insanlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 60&#8217;n\u0131n \u00c7in ekonomisindeki sorunun fark\u0131nda oldu\u011funu ama bunu acil bir<\/p>\n<p>risk olarak de\u011ferlendirmedi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<p>Bir ba\u015fka soruda \u00c7in ekonomisi, bu defa dolayl\u0131 olarak, g\u00fcndeme geliyor. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lara yeni geli\u015fen ekonomilerden<\/p>\n<p>hangisinin k\u00fcresel piyasalar i\u00e7in en y\u00fcksek bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k riski ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 soruluyor. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131 (y\u00fczde<\/p>\n<p>37.1)\u00a0 \u00c7in&#8217;i ilk s\u0131raya koyuyor. \u0130kinci s\u0131rda y\u00fczde 19.1 ile Rusya yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>RBS bu de\u011ferlendirmeyi ilgin\u00e7 buldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. \u00c7in ekonomisinde sert ini\u015f (kriz) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu<\/p>\n<p>d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu \u00fclkeyi birinci s\u0131raya yerle\u015ftirmi\u015f olmas\u0131\u00a0 ger\u00e7ekten ilgin\u00e7. T\u00fcrk i\u015f insan\u0131n\u0131n<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7in&#8217;de kolayca kriz olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, olursa da bunun t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyay\u0131 sarsaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Raporda risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 Avrupa a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan irdeleyen bir soru da var. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lara Euro b\u00f6lgesinin sonunun ne olaca\u011f\u0131<\/p>\n<p>soruluyor. RBS alt\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131k saym\u0131\u015f. Bunlardan Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131n durumu ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olan ikisini T\u00fcrk kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar ilk<\/p>\n<p>s\u0131ralara yerle\u015ftirmi\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n (y\u00fczde 49)\u00a0 Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131n bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (sa\u00e7 tra\u015f\u0131), Euro<\/p>\n<p>b\u00f6lgesinin aynen devam edece\u011fini ve bir bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc\u00a0 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu Avrupa&#8217;ya d\u00f6n\u00fck baya\u011f\u0131<\/p>\n<p>iyimser bir risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yayg\u0131n oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130kinci s\u0131rada yer alan se\u00e7enek bu kadar iyimser de\u011fil.Y\u00fczde<\/p>\n<p>22.5 oran\u0131nda kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131n bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (sa\u00e7 tra\u015f\u0131), Euro alan\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu<\/p>\n<p>s\u00fcre\u00e7 ciddi bir bula\u015fman\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>RBS raporu T\u00fcrk i\u015f insan\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel risklerin fark\u0131nda oldu\u011funu, risk de\u011ferlendirmesinde g\u00f6rece nesnel ve so\u011fukkanl\u0131<\/p>\n<p>davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bunun olumlu bir not olarak kaydedilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS)\u00a0ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde \u0130stanbul&#8217;da bir araya getirdi\u011fi i\u015f adamlar\u0131 ve bankac\u0131larla ilgin\u00e7 bir toplant\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015f. Yapm\u0131\u015f diyorum \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ben bu toplant\u0131y\u0131 RBS&#8217;in&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6999","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6999"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6999\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6999"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6999"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6999"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}