{"id":6974,"date":"2011-10-25T17:48:21","date_gmt":"2011-10-25T14:48:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6974"},"modified":"2011-10-25T17:48:21","modified_gmt":"2011-10-25T14:48:21","slug":"teknik-yorum-25-10-2011","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/teknik-yorum-25-10-2011\/","title":{"rendered":"Teknik Yorum 25.10.2011"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/USDTRY25102011-1.bmp\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6979\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/USDTRY25102011-1.bmp\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>USDTRY<br \/>\nMB&#8217;n\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan sonra para politikalar\u0131nda ciddi de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitme sinyalleri al\u0131nmakta.<br \/>\nGecelik faiz oranlar\u0131nda bor\u00e7 verme %9&#8217;dan %12.5&#8217;e \u00e7\u0131kartarak faiz koridorunu geni\u015fletmi\u015f bir sonraki toplant\u0131ya ise politika faizinin artt\u0131r\u0131m sinyalini vermi\u015fti. TL&#8217;de ya\u015fanan de\u011fer kayb\u0131yla birlikte\u00a0g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki baz art\u0131\u015f etkileri ve di\u011fer yan \u00fcr\u00fcnlerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle birlikte \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda enflasyon y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131 olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n neticesinde MB&#8217;n\u0131n Orta vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde politika de\u011fi\u015ftirmesine sebeb oldu. Ge\u00e7en hafta hat\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere g\u00fcnl\u00fck ihalelerin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda direk m\u00fcdahaleye ra\u011fmen 1.85 alt\u0131na gerilemeyen TL&#8217;de bu politika de\u011fi\u015fim sinyalinin al\u0131nmas\u0131yla birlikte 1.80 seviyelerine kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ini\u015fi g\u00f6zlemlemi\u015ftik. Yar\u0131n MB&#8217;n\u0131n enflasyon raporunla birlikte TL&#8217;yi destekleyici 5 maddelik kademeli eylem plan\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131kyacak olmas\u0131 TL&#8217;yi bug\u00fcn 1.80 alt\u0131na indirerek uzun\u00a0 en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 1.7870 seviyelerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesini sa\u011flad\u0131. TL&#8217;yi destek pakedinde, fiyat istikrar\u0131, faiz politikas\u0131, d\u00f6viz rezerv politikas\u0131, zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k politikas\u0131 ve finansal istikrar ad\u0131mlar\u0131 ile belirlendi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2967119276\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6nceki politikada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ile s\u0131cak para giri\u015fini engelleyen, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle birlikte gelen d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 di\u011fer tarafta son zamanlarda de\u011fer kaybeden TL ile y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi i\u00e7erisine giren bir enflasyon etkisi yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu denge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde MB&#8217;n\u0131n ge\u00e7 kalmayarak faiz koridorunu geni\u015fletmesiyle birlikte sonraki toplant\u0131dan \u00e7\u0131kacak %0.25&#8217;lik faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 hem TL&#8217;yi rahatlatacak hemde enflasyon&#8217;un kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131nda rahatlat\u0131c\u0131 unsur olarak \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r. Bu geli\u015fmelerin ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi baca\u011f\u0131na tabiki \u00a0negatif etki anlam\u0131nda ilk sinyal banka kredilerindeki art\u0131\u015flarla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k buldu. \u00d6zellikle ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta sonu baz\u0131 banklar\u0131n konut ve ticari kredilerindeki yapm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu 0.20.-0.70 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde etkisini kredi musluklar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte yo\u011fun bir telep kesilmesine neden olacak. Hat\u0131rlatmak gerekirki T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in 2012\u00a0y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen max b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 %5 olarak tahmin edilmekte.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/USDTRY25102011.bmp\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6980\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/USDTRY25102011.bmp\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Son geli\u015fmeleri \u00f6zetledikten sonra olu\u015fan bu durumda k\u0131sa ve orta vadede TL&#8217;de ne gibi bir etki yaratacak ve\u00a0k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u00a0\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde nas\u0131l pozisyon almal\u0131 sorusunun cevab\u0131n\u0131 ise asl\u0131nda MB ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerle ve att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlarla cevab\u0131n\u0131 vermekte. G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki merkez 1.90 \u00fczerinde bir UsdTry kuru istememekte. Sepet baz\u0131nda 2.20 \u00fczerinde de\u011ferlenen bir TL&#8217;yi yine kabul etmemekte.\u00a0 Anla\u015f\u0131lan o ki 2TL senaryolar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada rafa kald\u0131rmak durumunday\u0131z. Euro-Zone b\u00f6lgesinde ise bor\u00e7 krizine ili\u015fkin s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar devam ederken bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretilememekte. Toplant\u0131 \u00fcst\u00fcne toplant\u0131 yapan liderler zirvelerine ili\u015fkin beklentilerin neticesinde son 10-15 g\u00fcnl\u00fck periyodda\u00a0tepki veren t\u00fcm avrupa ve abd ednekslerinde de a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda ya\u015fanan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerindeki kay\u0131plar\u0131nda belli d\u00fczeltme seviyelerine ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Kal\u0131c\u0131 sorun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc bulanaca\u011f\u0131na inanmayan piyasan\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda t\u00fcm global piyasalara a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan sonra ikincil bir sert k\u0131r\u0131lma hareketi daha kap\u0131da olabilir. Bu durumda IMKB&#8217;nin mutlaka etkilenmesiyle birlikte TL&#8217;de de yeniden de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ise TL&#8217;de olas\u0131 1.85-1.90 bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na do\u011fru yeniden hareketlenmelerine kar\u015f\u0131n TL&#8217;ye d\u00f6nmeleri \u015fu anki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm itibariyle en mant\u0131kl\u0131 \u015fe\u00e7enek olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmekte.<\/p>\n<p>MB&#8217;nin ge\u00e7en hafta per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadarki s\u00fcre\u00e7te strateji olarak\u00a0 1,90 seviyelernin k\u0131sa pozsiyon a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun oldu\u011funu ve TL&#8217;nin 1.75-178 bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na gelmesi durumunda pozisyonlar\u0131n kapat\u0131larak yeniden bir sonraki s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in yeni longlar i\u00e7in uygun oldu\u011funu belirlemi\u015ftik. K\u0131sa vadeli traderlar i\u00e7in pozisyon kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n halen bu seviyelerden realize edilmesini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmekle birlikte orta ve uzun vadeli perspektifte ise \u00f6zellikle ticari m\u00fcesseselerin son MB politika kararlar\u0131ndan sonra TL&#8217;de orta vadede yeniden kuvvetlenme ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentiler \u00fczerine yeniden 1.65 alt b\u00f6lgesini kendilerine pozisyon kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 olarak en kuvvetli destek seviyesi olarak belirlemeleri mant\u0131kl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Hat\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere USDTRY&#8217;deki yeni bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 1.65-1.85 olarak belirlemi\u015f ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde MB&#8217;n\u0131n bu bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda\u00a0kurun dalgalanmas\u0131 iste\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Bu ba\u011flamda 1-Avrupa b\u00f6lgesinde yeniden sert k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda TL&#8217;de ya\u015fanacak yeni yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket sat\u0131\u015f\u00a0 f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131lmal\u0131\u00a02- \u015eu a\u015famada 1.90 ve \u00fczerinde \u00f6zellikle 2TL seviyesini bekleyen k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu beklentilerini art\u0131k \u00e7\u00f6pe atma zaman\u0131n\u0131n geldi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesini yerle\u015ftirmeleri gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Burak Ger\u00e7ek<br \/>\n<a href=\"mailto:burakgercek@gmail.com\">burakgercek@gmail.com<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/author\/burak-gercek\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/author\/burak-gercek\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USDTRY MB&#8217;n\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan sonra para politikalar\u0131nda ciddi de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitme sinyalleri al\u0131nmakta. Gecelik faiz oranlar\u0131nda bor\u00e7 verme %9&#8217;dan %12.5&#8217;e \u00e7\u0131kartarak faiz&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6774,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6974","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6974"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6974\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6774"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6974"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6974"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6974"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}