{"id":6940,"date":"2011-10-25T09:15:11","date_gmt":"2011-10-25T06:15:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6940"},"modified":"2011-10-25T09:15:20","modified_gmt":"2011-10-25T06:15:20","slug":"gurultu-kirliligi-mi-yaratiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/gurultu-kirliligi-mi-yaratiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"G\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc Kirlili\u011fi mi Yarat\u0131yor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>TCMB&#8217;nin \u00e7ok ama\u00e7l\u0131-\u00e7ok ara\u00e7l\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirin: Sizce ileriye y\u00f6nelik bekleyi\u015fleri \u015fekillendirmede ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 m\u0131?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2445685108\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Laf\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB\u2019nin) politikalar\u0131na getirece\u011fim ama \u00f6nce \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019e oradan da ABD\u2019ye uzanmam gerekiyor. 2011 Nobel Ekonomi \u00d6d\u00fcl\u00fc\u2019n\u00fc alan iki ki\u015fiden biri olan Thomas Sargent\u2019in \u00f6d\u00fcle giden yolda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nemli katk\u0131lardan biri, ekonomik birimlerin ileriye y\u00f6nelik karar al\u0131rken baz\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin ileri d\u00f6nemlerde alacaklar\u0131 de\u011ferlere ili\u015fkin olu\u015fturduklar\u0131 bekleyi\u015flere ili\u015fkin. Bu bekleyi\u015f meselesi iktisatta \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n<p>Mesela yak\u0131n gelecekte dolar kurunun de\u011ferinin lira kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda belirgin bi\u00e7imde artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorsan\u0131z bug\u00fcn gidip dolar sat\u0131n almak isterseniz. E\u011fer piyasadaki bekleyi\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak b\u00f6yle ise ba\u015fka ki\u015filer de dolar al\u0131r. Sonu\u00e7ta d\u00f6viz kuru bug\u00fcn artar. D\u00f6viz kurunun ileride artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 beklemek \u2018g\u00f6kten gelen vahiy\u2019le olmaz. Belki ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z \u00fclkenin merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika faizini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde emareler vard\u0131r. Ek olarak belki yerli ve yabanc\u0131 mali yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma i\u015ftahlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltacak geli\u015fmeler \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorsunuzdur.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kurun gelece\u011fi\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nBu durumda, en az\u0131ndan d\u00f6viz kurunun bug\u00fcn alaca\u011f\u0131 de\u011feri bug\u00fcn belirleyen d\u00f6viz kurunun ileride nas\u0131l \u015fekillenece\u011fine ili\u015fkin bekleyi\u015flerin kendisi, ekonomi politikas\u0131n\u0131n gelecekte nas\u0131l \u015fekillenece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte birka\u00e7 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma arkada\u015f\u0131yla birlikte Sargent\u2019in alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi\u011fi \u00f6nemli nokta bu. Oysa Sargent ve aralar\u0131nda kendisi gibi Nobel \u00f6d\u00fcl\u00fc alan birka\u00e7 ki\u015fi daha olan iktisat\u00e7\u0131 grubu bu can al\u0131c\u0131 noktay\u0131 yakalamadan \u00f6nce, ileriye y\u00f6nelik bekleyi\u015flerin genellikle ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki ve bug\u00fcnk\u00fc politikalardan etkilendikleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclerek makroekonomik modeller olu\u015fturuluyor ve \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n<p>Bunun \u00f6nemini g\u00f6stermek i\u00e7in enflasyonla i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 (i\u015fsizlik yerine ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 da olur) aras\u0131nda \u2018var oldu\u011fu\u2019 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen (san\u0131lan) bir ili\u015fkiyi ele alay\u0131m. Buna g\u00f6re enflasyonu azaltmak ancak i\u015fsizli\u011fi artt\u0131rmakla (b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmekle) m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olur. Bu nedenle televizyon ekranlar\u0131nda merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n politikalar\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken \u201cAma \u015fimdi merkez bankas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrs\u00fcn m\u00fc?\u201d \u015feklinde s\u00f6zler duyars\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ili\u015fki teknik olarak \u015f\u00f6yle: \u201cEnflasyonla beklenen enflasyon aras\u0131ndaki fark (enflasyon fark\u0131) ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ile potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark (b\u00fcy\u00fcme fark\u0131)\u201d ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde ili\u015fkili. Gelin bu ili\u015fkiyi birebir oran\u0131nda alal\u0131m. Diyelim ki bir \u00fclkede h\u00fck\u00fcmet y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru o y\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenen y\u00fczde 30 dolay\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131 yeni y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 10\u2019a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek istiyor. Bu \u00fclkenin potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 5 olsun. Soru \u015fu: E\u011fer enflasyonu y\u00fczde 10\u2019a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilirse yeni y\u0131lda onu nas\u0131l bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 bekliyor?<\/p>\n<p>S\u0131k\u0131 durun: Yeni y\u0131lda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenen enflasyonun i\u00e7inde bulunulan y\u0131lda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fenden (y\u00fczde 30) farkl\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyorsa yeni y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 10 enflasyon hedefi alt\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak enflasyon fark\u0131 (10 eksi 30 e\u015fittir) eksi 20 olacak. Bu durumda b\u00fcy\u00fcme fark\u0131 da eksi 20 olmal\u0131. Yani, yeni y\u0131lda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek b\u00fcy\u00fcme eksi y\u00fczde 15 olacak (eksi 20 art\u0131 y\u00fczde 5)! Oysa bu h\u00fck\u00fcmetin enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme program\u0131na g\u00fcvenilse yeni y\u0131lda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenen enflasyon hedeflenen kadar (y\u00fczde 10) olacak ve ne enflasyon fark\u0131 ne de b\u00fcy\u00fcme fark\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131. Yeni y\u0131lda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 5\u2019te kalacakt\u0131! \u201cEnflasyonla b\u00fcy\u00fcme aras\u0131nda birinden di\u011feri lehine fedak\u00e2rl\u0131k et\u201d \u015feklinde bir a\u00e7maz ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmayacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Elbette ger\u00e7ek ekonomilerin i\u015fleyi\u015fi bu kadar mekanik de\u011fil. Ama \u00f6nemli nokta \u015fu: \u0130leriye y\u00f6nelik bekleyi\u015flerin nas\u0131l olu\u015fturuldu\u011fu ve bu bekleyi\u015fleri \u015fekillendirmede ekonomi politikas\u0131 karar\u0131 alanlar\u0131n ve uygulayanlar\u0131n ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olduklar\u0131 ya\u015famsal \u00f6nemde. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede TCMB\u2019nin \u00e7ok ama\u00e7l\u0131-\u00e7ok ara\u00e7l\u0131 yeni para politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirin: Sizce ileriye y\u00f6nelik bekleyi\u015fleri \u015fekillendirmede ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 m\u0131? Yan\u0131t aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelecek yaz\u0131larda.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4201280683\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TCMB&#8217;nin \u00e7ok ama\u00e7l\u0131-\u00e7ok ara\u00e7l\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirin: Sizce ileriye y\u00f6nelik bekleyi\u015fleri \u015fekillendirmede ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 m\u0131? Laf\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB\u2019nin) politikalar\u0131na getirece\u011fim ama \u00f6nce \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019e oradan da&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6940","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6940"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6940\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6940"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6940"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6940"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}