{"id":6837,"date":"2011-10-23T13:39:11","date_gmt":"2011-10-23T10:39:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6837"},"modified":"2011-10-23T13:39:45","modified_gmt":"2011-10-23T10:39:45","slug":"bize-buyuk-bazuka-lazim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/bize-buyuk-bazuka-lazim\/","title":{"rendered":"Bize B\u00fcy\u00fck Bazuka Laz\u0131m"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Hernekadar g\u00fcndemin \u015fehvetine kap\u0131lmak yerine \u015fehveti g\u00fcndelik olarak kovalamay\u0131 tercih eden bir yazar da olsam, asl\u0131nda AB\u2019yle ilgili bu keyifli makaleden \u00f6nce TCMB\u2019ya mutad bindirmemi yapmadan ge\u00e7emeyece\u011fim.\u00a0 Son zamanlarda komik TCMB f\u0131kralar\u0131 duydunuz mu?\u00a0 Ben duydum ve sizinle payla\u015fmazsam yaz s\u0131ca\u011f\u0131nda so\u011fuk p\u0131nara b\u0131rak\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Diyarbak\u0131r karpuzu gibi g\u00f6be\u011fimden \u00e7atlar\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-672217967\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Desperate Housewives dizisi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye uyarlanm\u0131\u015f, ad\u0131 \u201cDesperate Central Bankers\u201d (Umutsuz Merkez Bankac\u0131lar\u0131), ba\u015frol\u00fc TCMB\u2019ye teklif etmi\u015fler.<\/p>\n<p>Bir arkada\u015f\u0131n d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vard\u0131, geline dolar serpmek i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz b\u00fcfesine gittim, \u00f6yle ufak bir \u015fey alaca\u011f\u0131m, bir ka\u00e7 bin dolar.\u00a0 B\u00fcfeci \u201cEngerek Baba yar\u0131m saat bekle\u201d dedi. (Yak\u0131n arkada\u015flar\u0131m bana Engerek der)\u00a0 \u201cNiye?\u201d dedim, \u201cBiraz sonra TCMB tenzilatl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f yapacak, o zaman daha hesapl\u0131 olur.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>TCMB ile Frans\u0131z ordusu niye birbirine benzer?\u00a0 \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ikisinin de binlerce silah\u0131 vard\u0131r, ama sava\u015fmadan teslim olurlar.<\/p>\n<p>Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 almak i\u00e7in ka\u00e7 PPK \u00fcyesi gerekir?\u00a0 Asla bilemeyece\u011fiz, hi\u00e7 faiz art\u0131rmayacaklar ki!!!<\/p>\n<p>Valla, Vezir-i Azam\u0131n frenk el\u00e7isine dedi\u011fi gibi:\u00a0 \u201c\u015ea\u015f\u0131yorum, ya siz d\u0131\u015fardan biz i\u00e7erden 600 y\u0131ld\u0131r bitiremedik bu Devlet-i Osmaniye\u2019yi\u201d. D\u0131\u015farda bitmeyen riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f, i\u00e7erde her karar\u0131yla ekonominin dengesini ve halk\u0131n ruh sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bozan TCMB ve AKP, ama hala direniyoruz.\u00a0 Daha ne kadar direniriz?\u00a0 Cevap art\u0131k bizde de\u011fil.\u00a0 TCMB Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizini art\u0131rmayarak elini g\u00f6sterdi.\u00a0 AKP\u2019den telgrafla direktif gelmeden faiz art\u0131rmaz. Bu s\u0131cak para ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 devam ederse, bir ay sonra TL ve D\u0130BS\u2019de bu seviyeleri \u201cmazide kalan g\u00fczel g\u00fcnler\u201d olarak hat\u0131rlar\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>AB\u2019de maliye bakanlar\u0131 ve\u00a0 liderler 6 g\u00fcn s\u00fcrecek g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme maratonuna ba\u015flad\u0131lar.\u00a0 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fcnyan\u0131n kaderini belirleyecek karar a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.\u00a0 E\u011fer AB\u2019nin karar\u0131 piyasalar\u0131 tatmin ederse, amenna. T\u00fcrkiye bu seneyi sorunsuz atlat\u0131r, TL de\u011fer kazan\u0131r, D\u0130BS faizleri d\u00fc\u015ferken \u0130MKB-100 de 70 bin puana do\u011fru depara kalkar.\u00a0 Benim g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc sorarsan\u0131z, AB maliyeti \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ac\u0131 ilac\u0131 yutacak.\u00a0 \u00c7ok bor\u00e7lu \u00fclkeler (PIIGS) ve Avrupa bankalar\u0131 panik sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 kordon alt\u0131na al\u0131nacak, Yunanistan ise ya karantinaya, ya da iflasa mahkum edilecek.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki alt\u0131 g\u00fcn ya\u015fanacak tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n p\u00fcf noktalar\u0131n\u0131 kavraman\u0131z i\u00e7in biraz pedantik de olsa bir k\u0131lavuz haz\u0131rlamak ihtiyac\u0131 duydum bu yaz\u0131mda.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2048761875\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Hair-cut:\u00a0 Sa\u00e7 t\u0131ra\u015f\u0131.\u00a0 Trader efrad\u0131n\u0131n kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u201cufak bir kay\u0131pla pozisyondan \u00e7\u0131kmak\u201d demek.\u00a0 \u00c7ok bor\u00e7lu \u00fclkeler olan Yunanistan, Portekiz \u0130rlanda, Italya ve \u0130spanya (PIIGS) krizi ba\u011flam\u0131nda, Yunan tahvili (D\u0130BS\u2019i) tutanlar\u0131n bu zirvede tayin edilecek zarar\u0131n\u0131 tan\u0131ml\u0131yor.\u00a0 Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n 2014 sonunda en iyimser senaryoda kamu borcu\/GSYIH oran\u0131 %160\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na inmez.\u00a0 Palikaryay\u0131 ya\u015fatman\u0131n tek \u00e7aresi var.\u00a0 Halen D\u0130BS tutan alacakl\u0131lara bir hair-cut yapmak.\u00a0 21 Temmuz Zirvesin\u2019de bu hair-cut nominal de\u011ferin %21\u2019i olarak saptanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131, ama yetmiyor. Bu zirvede hair-cut %50 olarak belirlenecek.<\/p>\n<p>Bankalar\u0131n yeniden sermayelendirilmesi:\u00a0 Palikarya\u2019n\u0131n 360\u00a0 milyar Euro civar\u0131nda kamu borcu var, takriben 100-130 milyar\u0131 Avrupa bankalar\u0131n\u0131n bilan\u00e7olar\u0131nda. Haircut\u2019dan sonra 50-70 milyar zarar etmi\u015f olacaklar.\u00a0 Ama, Avrupa bankalar\u0131n\u0131n bir ba\u015fka sorunu daha var.\u00a0 Getirisi %2.5-3.5 civarndan ald\u0131klar\u0131 Guido (\u0130talyan) ve Sanchez (\u0130spanyol) tahvillerinde getiri \u015fimdi %5.5 civar\u0131nda, yani acaip zarardalar.\u00a0 Ayr\u0131ca e\u011fer Palikarya D\u0130BS\u2019i tutan herkes %50 hair-cut yiyecekse, ilerde ayn\u0131 kolpo\u00e7inonun Guido ve Sanchez D\u0130BS\u2019e yap\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 ne malum?\u00a0 Bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle, Avrupa bankalar\u0131na bor\u00e7 verenler yaln\u0131z Palikarya D\u0130BS\u2019de u\u011frayacaklar\u0131 zarar\u0131 de\u011fil, Guido-Sanchez D\u0130BS\u2019de u\u011frayacaklar\u0131 muhtemel zarar\u0131 da hesaba kat\u0131yor, onlarla i\u015f yapm\u0131yor.\u00a0 \u0130\u015fte bu y\u00fczden yeniden sermaylendirmenin yan\u0131nda\u00a0 bir \u015fekilde kordon alt\u0131na al\u0131nmalar\u0131 la\u0131zm.<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa bankalar\u0131na 100-200 milyar Euro civar\u0131nda taze sermaye koymak laz\u0131m ki, yeniden Interbank\u2019tan, ABD Likit Fonlardan, bono ve tahvil piyasalar\u0131ndan bor\u00e7lanabilsinler. Bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fcts\u00fcnler, kredi versinler. Bankalar ya borsadan sermaye art\u0131racak, ya da devletin \u00f6n\u00fcnde el a\u00e7acaklar. Her iki durumdada semrayedar\u0131n b\u00f6breklerine kadar \u201cteyet ge\u00e7ecek\u201d. Bu y\u00fczden Avrupa bankalar\u0131 yeniden sermayelendirmeye H\u00fcrrem Sultan\u2019\u0131n hamama gitmeye \u00a0direndi\u011fi gibi direniyor.\u00a0 Ama, bu konuda uzla\u015fma var, bankalar ya seve seve ya da fatmag\u00fcl usul\u00fc (FadimaRose style) sermaye bulacak.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fck Bazuka:\u00a0 \u0130\u015fte Fransa ve Amanya (Fransua ve Hans) burda anla\u015fam\u0131yor, ve e\u011fer zirve fos \u00e7\u0131kacaksa, B\u00fcyk Bazuka\u2019n\u0131n bulunamamas\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kacak.\u00a0 \u015eimdi manzaraya bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda kar\u015f\u0131n\u0131za \u015f\u00f6yle bir senarya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Palikarya \u00a0iflas etti, ya da D\u0130BS\u2019de %50 hair-cut yap\u0131ld\u0131. \u00a0\u00a0Ayn\u0131 muamelenin Guido ve Sanchez, hatta Pepe (Portekiz) ve McIntosh (\u0130rlanda\u2019n\u0131n) ihra\u00e7 etti\u011fi D\u0130BS\u2019de de ba\u015flar\u0131na gelece\u011finden korkan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bunlar\u0131 ishal olmu\u015f tav\u015fan gib portf\u00f6ylerinden \u00e7\u0131kartmaya ba\u015flayacak.\u00a0 Bu \u00fclkeler uzun s\u00fcre bor\u00e7lanamayacaklar\u0131 i\u00e7in batma s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na gelecekler. Ayr\u0131ca bankalar\u0131n elinde hali haz\u0131rda bulunan D\u0130BS\u2019lerin de de\u011feri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in ilave edilen sermaye kediye y\u00fcklenmi\u015f olacak.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2266069338\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ekonomihaberyorum.com\/bize-buyuk-bazuka-lazim\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">t\u0131klay\u0131n\u0131z<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hernekadar g\u00fcndemin \u015fehvetine kap\u0131lmak yerine \u015fehveti g\u00fcndelik olarak kovalamay\u0131 tercih eden bir yazar da olsam, asl\u0131nda AB\u2019yle ilgili bu keyifli makaleden \u00f6nce TCMB\u2019ya mutad bindirmemi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6837","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6837"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6837\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6837"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6837"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6837"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}