{"id":6834,"date":"2011-10-22T09:58:24","date_gmt":"2011-10-22T06:58:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6834"},"modified":"2011-10-22T09:58:32","modified_gmt":"2011-10-22T06:58:32","slug":"kaderin-cilvesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kaderin-cilvesi\/","title":{"rendered":"Kaderin Cilvesi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#8216;Bizlerin&#8217; bir daha g\u00f6rmek istemedi\u011fi o finansman bi\u00e7iminin Avrupa i\u00e7in kurtar\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi de kaderin cilvesi olsa gerek.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3674823268\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Nobel Ekonomi \u00d6d\u00fcl\u00fc bu y\u0131l iki ki\u015fi aras\u0131nda payla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131: Christopher Sims ve Thomas Sargent. Nobel Ekonomi \u00d6d\u00fcl\u00fc Komitesi, \u00f6d\u00fcl\u00fcn neden bu iktisat\u00e7\u0131lara verildi\u011fini, Sims ve Sargent\u2019in katk\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rk sayfal\u0131k bir raporla a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u00d6zellikle iktisat lisans\u00fcst\u00fc \u00f6\u011frencilerinin ve ileri makroekonomi dersi alan iktisat lisans \u00f6\u011frencilerinin o raporu internetten bulup okumalar\u0131nda yarar var. Raporun sekizinci sayfas\u0131nda Sargent\u2019in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomi politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlama yer verilen bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm var. Ele al\u0131nan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalardan biri, bu k\u00f6\u015fede \u00e7e\u015fitli defalar yer ald\u0131: \u2018Sevimsiz monetarist aritmetik\u2019 ad\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor ve Wallace ile yaz\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Bu k\u00f6\u015fede neden defalarca yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu yaz\u0131n\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru berrakla\u015facak olan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, 1981\u2019de ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Minneapolis \u2018\u015fubesinin\u2019 akademik dergisinde yay\u0131mland\u0131. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilgin\u00e7 ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n nedeni \u015fu:<\/p>\n<p>Maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015fek oldu\u011fu bir \u00fclkede merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cBen bildi\u011fimi okurum; s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131ndan beni kimse geri \u00e7eviremez\u201d deme \u015fans\u0131n\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fc \u015f\u00f6yle: Maliye politikas\u0131 gev\u015fek oldu\u011fu ve bu gev\u015feklik bir s\u00fcredir s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in bir devletin borcu az\u0131msanmayacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde olsun. Bu nedenle, devletin \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni tahvilleri sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in tasarruf sahipleri giderek daha y\u00fcksek faiz talep edecekler. Bu durumda devletin borcuna \u00f6dedi\u011fi faizin enflasyonun \u00fczerinde kalan k\u0131sm\u0131 (reel faiz) ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131ndan belirgin bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek olacak. Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda, maliye politikas\u0131nda gev\u015feklik ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, devletin (reel) borcu giderek artacak. \u00d6yle bir noktaya gelinecek ki devletin ya \u201cBorcumu \u00f6demiyorum\u201d demesi gerekecek ya da merkez bankas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcp \u201cB\u0131rak \u015fimdi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131, ben iflasa gidiyorum, bas paray\u0131 ver bana, borcumu \u00f6deyece\u011fim\u201d demesi.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci se\u00e7enek tercih edildi\u011finde \u2018sevimsiz monetarist aritmetik\u2019 ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Maliye politikas\u0131ndaki gev\u015fekli\u011fe ve bu gev\u015fekli\u011fin de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fine dair hi\u00e7bir sinyal gelmemesine ra\u011fmen enflasyonla m\u00fccadele etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131, bir s\u00fcre sonra para basmak zorunda kal\u0131yor ve muhtemelen ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksek bir enflasyona neden oluyor. Bitmedi: E\u011fer o \u00fclkede ya\u015fayanlar gidi\u015fat\u0131n gidi\u015fat olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlarsa, devletin \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahvillere talep erkenden azal\u0131yor, \u00e7ok daha erken para bast\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor ve enflasyonun y\u00fckselmesi \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nce oluyor. Avrupa\u2019da ya\u015fananlarla bir miktar benzerlik arz etmiyor mu? Sonu\u00e7ta d\u00f6n\u00fcp dola\u015f\u0131l\u0131p bankalar\u0131n kurtar\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ba\u015flar Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na \u00e7evriliyor. Banka ise o oyuna kat\u0131lmak istemiyormu\u015f gibi davran\u0131yor. Merak edilen, ortadaki oyuna t\u00fcm\u00fcyle ne zaman kat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131? S\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma Avrupa\u2019da ya\u015fananlara \u2018k\u0131smen\u2019 benziyor dedim. \u2018K\u0131smen\u2019, zira bu ko\u015fullarda Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bol para basmas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu \u201c\u015eimdilik\u201d azd\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 pek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen yok. \u00d6te yandan Avrupa\u2019da ya\u015fananlar\u0131n Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 \u20181990\u2019lardaki tipik bir y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomisine\u2019 yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 da ortada. Hani, 1990\u2019larda, Latin Amerika \u00fclkelerinde ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ne tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131rd\u0131? Y\u00fcksek kamu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131, bu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n do\u011furdu\u011fu finansman gereksiniminin merkez bankalar\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131, bunlar\u0131n zararl\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131. \u2018Bizlerin\u2019 bir daha g\u00f6rmek istemedi\u011fi o finansman bi\u00e7iminin Avrupa i\u00e7in kurtar\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi de kaderin cilvesi olsa gerek. Bakal\u0131m yery\u00fcz\u00fc daha nelere sahne olacak!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8216;Bizlerin&#8217; bir daha g\u00f6rmek istemedi\u011fi o finansman bi\u00e7iminin Avrupa i\u00e7in kurtar\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi de kaderin cilvesi olsa gerek. Nobel Ekonomi \u00d6d\u00fcl\u00fc bu y\u0131l iki ki\u015fi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6834","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6834","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6834"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6834\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6834"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6834"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6834"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}