{"id":6802,"date":"2011-10-21T09:32:55","date_gmt":"2011-10-21T06:32:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6802"},"modified":"2011-10-21T09:33:15","modified_gmt":"2011-10-21T06:33:15","slug":"spekulatif-atak-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/spekulatif-atak-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Spek\u00fclatif Atak m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Hafta ortas\u0131nda ba\u015flayan geli\u015fmeler ekonomide de d\u00f6vizde bir harekelili\u011fin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sinyalini verdi. 18 Ekim \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00f6viz y\u00fcksek taleple\u00a0 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. D\u00f6viz kuru a\u011f\u0131r bir bask\u0131 alt\u0131na girdi. D\u00f6viz kurunda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131. Bu gidi\u015fin durdurulup, durumun kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nabilmesi i\u00e7in Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck hacimli do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalesi gerekti.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1214789008\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u00f6viz alan\u0131nda ya\u015fananlar hemen eski bir tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 \u0131s\u0131t\u0131p, yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. D\u00f6viz kurundaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin ters y\u00f6ne \u00e7evrilmesi i\u00e7in Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 faizini y\u00fckseltmesi gerekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bir kez daha y\u00fcksek sesle ifade edilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Faiz lobisi hemen i\u015fe koyuldu anlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6viz kuru hareketlenince akla hemen faizin geliyor olmas\u0131\u00a0 raslant\u0131 de\u011fil. De\u011feri bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131p gerilemeye ba\u015flay\u0131nca paran\u0131n yeniden talep edilmesini sa\u011flaman\u0131n en bilinen ve g\u00f6r\u00fcnen yolu m\u00fckafat\u0131n\u0131 yani getirisini y\u00fckseltmektir. Bunun da en do\u011frudan yolu faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseltilmesidir. Bug\u00fcn Merkez Bankas\u0131ndan istenen de budur.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak d\u00f6viz kurundaki y\u00fckselmenin arkas\u0131ndaki nedene ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak faiz de\u011fi\u015fmesinin bu s\u00fcreci pek fazla etkilememesi de m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6viz kuru hareketi temelde d\u00f6viz arz ve talebindeki de\u011fi\u015fme ile ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar. D\u00f6viz arz ve talebi ise birden fazla nedenle de\u011fi\u015fir. Bu nedenleri iki gruba ay\u0131rabiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Gruplardan birisi d\u00f6viz arz ve talebini olu\u015fturan temel b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerden olu\u015fur. \u0130haracat, ithalat vb gibi ticaret kalemleri bu grupta yer al\u0131r. Bunlar\u0131n \u00f6zelli\u011fi de\u011fi\u015fir olmalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen zaman i\u00e7indeki hareketlerinin a\u011f\u0131r olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Temel b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerdeki hareketler ani ve b\u00fcy\u00fck marjl\u0131 kur de\u011fi\u015fmesine neden olmaz.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6viz arz ve talebini etkileyen ikinci grup etken sermaye hareketlerinden, yani sermaye giri\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan olu\u015fur.\u00a0 Bu grupta hareketlilik g\u00f6rece daha y\u00fcksektir. Ani ve \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6viz giri\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 yaratabilirler. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla d\u00f6viz arz ve talebinde ani ve y\u00fcksek marjl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmelere neden olabilirler. Bu ba\u011flamda en u\u00e7 nokta spek\u00fclatif atak olarak tan\u0131mlanan d\u00f6viz hareketleridir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2461725567\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Bu iki grup etkenden kaynaklanan kur hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 izlecek politikalar farkl\u0131d\u0131r. Temel b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerdeki de\u011fi\u015fimden kaynaklanan kur hareketlerinde para ve faiz politikas\u0131ndaki y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmeler daha etkili olur. Bu ko\u015fullarda d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale etmenin yararl\u0131 ve kal\u0131c\u0131 sonucu olmaz.<\/p>\n<p>Sermaye giri\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki hareket risk alg\u0131s\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir de\u011fi\u015fiminden kaynaklan\u0131yorsa, etkili bir beklenti y\u00f6netiminin gerekti\u011fi, bu ba\u011flamda faiz ve do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalenin bir arada kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Sermaye hareketi b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle spek\u00fclatif i\u015ftahdan kaynaklan\u0131yorsa, yani bir spek\u00fclatif atak s\u00f6z konusuysa, bu nedenle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan d\u00f6viz kuru hareketinin kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131nda faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesi b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle etkisiz kal\u0131r. Spek\u00fclatif atak faize kar\u015f\u0131 duyars\u0131z bir geli\u015fmedir. D\u00f6viz kurunu\u00a0 de\u011fi\u015fmeye zorlay\u0131p, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan spek\u00fclatif kazanc\u0131 elde etmeye y\u00f6nelik bir hareketlerdir bu t\u00fcr spek\u00fclasyonlar.\u00a0 Bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6viz hareketlerinin panzehiri miktar m\u00fcdahalesi ile spek\u00fclasyonu bast\u0131rmakt\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4258706454\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Hafta ortas\u0131nda d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeleri de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in iyi bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve olu\u015fturdu\u011fumuzu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Yap\u0131dan kaynaklanan bir arz talep dengesizli\u011fi sonucu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan bir kur de\u011fi\u015fmesi s\u00f6zkonusu ise faiz lobisinin hakl\u0131 oldu\u011fu sonucuna ula\u015fmam\u0131z gerekir. Yok e\u011fer gelir ge\u00e7er bir spek\u00fclatif atak devreye girdiyse faizi unutup, do\u011frudan miktar m\u00fcdahalesinin pe\u015fine d\u00fc\u015fmek do\u011fru olur.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durumda hafta ortas\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeyi do\u011fru alg\u0131lay\u0131p, do\u011fru politikan\u0131n arkas\u0131nda durmak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz hareketinin nedenini do\u011fru saptamak gerekir. Bu noktada s\u00f6z\u00fcn Merkez Bankas\u0131na b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 do\u011fru olur. Hareketin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn TCMB&#8217;den yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada &#8220;piyasa derinli\u011finin kaybolmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak spek\u00fclatif davran\u0131\u015flar sonucunda kurlarda sa\u011fl\u0131ks\u0131z fiyat olu\u015fumlar\u0131 g\u00f6zlenmesi durumunda piyasaya al\u0131m ya da sat\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale edilebilecektir&#8221; denilmi\u015ftir. Yani Merkez Bankas\u0131 son geli\u015fmeleri spek\u00fclatif atak olarak de\u011ferlendirmi\u015f ve d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na do\u011frudan sat\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahalesi yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Do\u011fru olan da budur diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hafta ortas\u0131nda ba\u015flayan geli\u015fmeler ekonomide de d\u00f6vizde bir harekelili\u011fin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sinyalini verdi. 18 Ekim \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00f6viz y\u00fcksek taleple\u00a0 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. D\u00f6viz kuru a\u011f\u0131r bir bask\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6802","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6802"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6802\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}