{"id":6740,"date":"2011-10-20T09:22:48","date_gmt":"2011-10-20T06:22:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6740"},"modified":"2011-10-20T09:22:57","modified_gmt":"2011-10-20T06:22:57","slug":"ovp-uzerine-bazi-gozlemler-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ovp-uzerine-bazi-gozlemler-2\/","title":{"rendered":"OVP \u00dczerine Baz\u0131 G\u00f6zlemler-2"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>OVP&#8217;nin bizler i\u00e7in &#8216;Verimlilik artacak, T\u00fcrkiye h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek&#8230;&#8217; gibi temenni manzumesi haline d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi riski art\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1718351992\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2012-2014 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan yeni Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) hakk\u0131nda \u2018dedikodu\u2019 yapmaya devam ediyorum. OVP\u2019ye ili\u015fkin en b\u00fcy\u00fck sorunum 2010 ve 2011\u2019deki y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k-GSYH oranlar\u0131ndan sonra \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l daha \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k verece\u011fimizin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesiydi. \u00d6yle ki 2014 itibariyle son be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama cari a\u00e7\u0131k-GSYH oran\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 7,7 oluyor. Sermaye hareketlerinin serbest b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 1990\u2019dan bu yana, bu kadar y\u00fcksek bir be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k ba\u015fka bir d\u00f6nemde yok.<br \/>\nSon a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00f6demeler dengesi verilerine g\u00f6re a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan net \u2018kaynak\u2019 (bor\u00e7) bulamad\u0131. Oysa y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yedi ay\u0131ndaki ortalama net d\u0131\u015f d\u00f6viz giri\u015fi 7.2 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyindeydi. \u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullarda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye net d\u0131\u015f d\u00f6viz giri\u015findeki bu durgunlu\u011fun s\u00fcrmesi beklenir. Elbette aydan aya oynamalar olabilir, ama temel e\u011filim \u2013d\u0131\u015far\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczelmedik\u00e7e- bu y\u00f6nde olacak. Bu durumda bu kadar y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n gerektirdi\u011fi net d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanmay\u0131 nas\u0131l yapaca\u011f\u0131z? Yapamazsak, OVP\u2019deki b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131na nas\u0131l ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131z?<\/p>\n<p><strong>OVP eski metinler gibi\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0130kinci sorun, OVP\u2019nin eskiden al\u0131\u015f\u0131k oldu\u011fumuz plan-program metinleri gibi yaz\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. Daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanan orta vadeli programlarda da benzer bir dil vard\u0131. Oysa OVP yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 yeni bir yakla\u015f\u0131m; \u2018yap\u0131lacakt\u0131r\u2019, \u2018edilecektir\u2019 ve \u2018her t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00f6nlem al\u0131nacakt\u0131r\u2019 t\u00fcr\u00fc havada kalan ifadelerden uzak olunmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor insan. Ne var ki metin, mevcut durumun de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fi b\u00f6l\u00fcm d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, bu t\u00fcr ifadelerle dolu. Bu durumda kendinden beklenen temel i\u015flevi g\u00f6rme \u015fans\u0131 azal\u0131yor OVP\u2019nin. Bu havada kalan ifadelerin i\u00e7i dolmad\u0131k\u00e7a, mesela \u2018her t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00f6nlem al\u0131nacakt\u0131r\u2019 ifadesi, o \u00f6nlemlerin nas\u0131l al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131, al\u0131n\u0131rken hangi kaynaklar\u0131n kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131, ne gibi bir zaman diliminde o \u00f6nlemlerin devreye sokulaca\u011f\u0131, beklenen sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n neler olaca\u011f\u0131 gibi ayr\u0131nt\u0131larla desteklenmezse, OVP nas\u0131l belirsizli\u011fi azaltacak?<br \/>\nDenilebilir ki bu \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir program. O ifadelerin i\u00e7inin dolaca\u011f\u0131 metinler ba\u015fka; daha ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 ve teknik metinler. Olabilir. Ama bu durumda OVP ile birlikte bu metinlerin de da\u011f\u0131t\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekmez mi? Da\u011f\u0131t\u0131lmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in elbette bu \u00f6nemli ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n mevcut olmalar\u0131 gerekiyor. Mevcut olup olmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 bilmiyorum. G\u00f6n\u00fcl, olmalar\u0131n\u0131 istiyor \u015f\u00fcphesiz. Ekonomik birimler (bizler) bu ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00f6rmeyip onlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiremedik\u00e7e, ileriye y\u00f6nelik ekonomik kararlar al\u0131rken kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z belirsizlikleri azaltmak bir tarafa, OVP\u2019nin bizler i\u00e7in \u201cVerimlilik artacak, \u00e7evre kirlili\u011fi azalacak, T\u00fcrkiye h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek&#8230;\u201d gibi temenni manzumesi haline d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi riski art\u0131yor. Oysa farkl\u0131 olabilir; T\u00fcrkiye ekonomi b\u00fcrokrasisi daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir orta vadeli program\u0131 rahatl\u0131kla haz\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ekonomi Bakan\u0131 yoktu\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nOVP\u2019ye ili\u015fkin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc sorunum \u2018\u00f6z\u2019 ile ilgili de\u011fil, sunu\u015f ile ilgili. Program\u0131n bas\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131da a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 yapan bakanlar\u0131n ve b\u00fcrokratlar\u0131n oturdu\u011fu masada, g\u00f6rebildi\u011fim kadar\u0131yla, Ekonomi Bakan\u0131 yoktu. Elbette yanl\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f olabilirim. Ekonomi Bakan\u0131 bir g\u00f6rev nedeniyle Ankara\u2019da olmayabilir de. Bu olas\u0131l\u0131klar ge\u00e7erli de\u011filse ortada \u2018garip\u2019 bir durum oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131k. Gariplik, san\u0131yorum Ekonomi Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n isminde. Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ad\u0131n\u0131n \u2018ekonomi bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019 olmas\u0131, bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n sorumluluklar\u0131 ve ba\u011fl\u0131 kurulu\u015flar\u0131 belli oldu\u011funda, zaten yeteri kadar ele\u015ftiri toplam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. OVP\u2019nin sunulu\u015f bi\u00e7imi, bu ele\u015ftirilerin hakl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir kez daha ortaya serdi.<br \/>\nSomut ve inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 hedefler de var elbette. Bunlar genellikle maliye politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin ve olumlu mesajlar veriyorlar: B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, toplam kamu finansman gereksiniminin ve toplam kamu borcunun GSYH\u2019ye oranlar\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i d\u00fczeylerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>OVP&#8217;nin bizler i\u00e7in &#8216;Verimlilik artacak, T\u00fcrkiye h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek&#8230;&#8217; gibi temenni manzumesi haline d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi riski art\u0131yor. 2012-2014 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan yeni Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) hakk\u0131nda \u2018dedikodu\u2019&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6740"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6740\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}