{"id":6657,"date":"2011-10-19T09:38:24","date_gmt":"2011-10-19T06:38:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6657"},"modified":"2011-10-19T09:38:34","modified_gmt":"2011-10-19T06:38:34","slug":"son-gelismeler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/son-gelismeler\/","title":{"rendered":"Son Geli\u015fmeler"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Son g\u00fcnlerde hem \u00f6nemli veriler a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131 hem de \u00f6nemli politika metinleri. Bug\u00fcn i\u015fsizlik ve cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verileri ile Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) ve 2012 b\u00fct\u00e7esi \u00fczerinde durmak istiyorum. \u00d6nce pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan temmuz ay\u0131na ait i\u015fsizlik verileri.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-371466972\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131nda kat\u0131l\u0131k<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kriz \u00f6ncesinde (2006&#8217;da ve 2007&#8217;de) ortalama i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 10.2 d\u00fczeyindeydi. Krizle birlikte s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, sonra da zamanla d\u00fc\u015ferek kriz \u00f6ncesi d\u00fczeyine indi. \u015eubat 2011&#8217;den bu yana mevsim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 10.3 ile y\u00fczde 10.1 aras\u0131nda dar bir alanda oynuyor. Haziranda y\u00fczde 10.3 d\u00fczeyindeydi temmuz ay\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 10.1 oldu. Bir anlamda i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10 dolaylar\u0131ndaki kat\u0131l\u0131\u011fa geri d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f durumday\u0131z (Grafik 1).<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.dunya.com\/pics\/fatih1.jpg\" alt=\"\" align=\"baseline\" border=\"0\" hspace=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bu kat\u0131l\u0131k bir olumlu geli\u015fmeyi maskelememeli. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lma oran\u0131nda kriz \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f var: Temmuz ay\u0131nda 2006 ve 2007 ortalamas\u0131na k\u0131yasla yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt puan daha fazla. K\u0131sacas\u0131, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir n\u00fcfusa oranla daha fazla insan son y\u0131llarda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak istemi\u015f. Bu fazlal\u0131\u011fa ra\u011fmen i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 sabit kalm\u0131\u015f. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle, kriz \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn daha fazla bir k\u0131sm\u0131na i\u015f bulabilmi\u015fiz, daha fazla istihdam yaratm\u0131\u015f\u0131z. \u015e\u00f6yle de ifade edilebilir: \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lma oran\u0131 kriz \u00f6ncesindeki d\u00fczeyinde olsayd\u0131, \u015fimdi i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olacakt\u0131. Bir parantez: Bu art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lma oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 50 gibi \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir d\u00fczeyde; \u00f6nemli bir \u00fcretim g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc devreye sokamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z anlam\u0131na geliyor bu.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Cari a\u00e7\u0131kta iyile\u015fme, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan net d\u00f6viz giri\u015finde k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fme<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u011fustos ay\u0131na ait \u00f6demeler dengesi verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Temmuz ay\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 5.3 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyindeyken a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda 3.9 milyar dolar oldu. Ama bunlar ham veriler; mevsim etkilerini bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yorlar. \u00c7o\u011fu makroekonomik veriye oldu\u011fu gibi cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131na da mevsim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131rarak bakmak gerekiyor. \u00d6yle bak\u0131nca a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda bir ay \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla bir iyile\u015fme yok. Aksine s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir miktar art\u0131yor cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f (mevsim hareketlerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda) \u015fubat ay\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6zlenen belirgin iyile\u015fmeyi g\u00f6lgelememeli. Gelinen nokta, cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131ndaki k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmeden \u015fik\u00e2yet etti\u011fimiz 2010&#8217;un ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki noktadan farkl\u0131 de\u011fil ama olsun, bu da olumlu bir geli\u015fme\u00a0 (Grafik 2).<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.dunya.com\/pics\/fatih2.jpg\" alt=\"\" align=\"baseline\" border=\"0\" hspace=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bir di\u011fer dikkat \u00e7ekici geli\u015fme, a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n (d\u00f6viz ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n) azalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, bu ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan net d\u00f6viz giri\u015fleri ile kar\u015f\u0131lanamam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 (s\u00f6z konusu olan d\u00f6viz ihtiyac\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in &#8216;ham&#8217; veriye, yani mevsim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f veriye bakmak gerekiyor). Bunun yerine cepten (d\u00f6viz rezervimizden) yemi\u015fiz. Bu durum uzun bir s\u00fcredir ilk defa ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yedi ay\u0131nda yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sa\u011flanan net finansman tam 50.4 milyar dolar; ayba\u015f\u0131na 7.2 milyar dolar ediyor. Oysa a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda sadece 0.8 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir net finansman s\u00f6z konusu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2567414406\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">OVP ve 2010 b\u00fct\u00e7esi<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Hem OVP&#8217;de hem 2012 b\u00fct\u00e7esinde maliye politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6stergeler a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak olumlu y\u00f6nde. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, toplam kamu kesiminin finansman gereksiniminin ve toplam kamu borcunun GSYH&#8217;ye oranlar\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeylerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Mesela AB tan\u0131ml\u0131 kamu borcu-GSYH oran\u0131 2011&#8217;de y\u00fczde 39.8 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir oranda kalacak. 2014 sonunda ise bu oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 32&#8217;ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi planlan\u0131yor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerde tek ele\u015ftirilecek nokta, \u00f6nemli bir yap\u0131sal sorunumuzun s\u00fcr\u00fcyor olmas\u0131: Vergi alabildi\u011fimiz kesim yeterince b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fil; bu nedenle, birincisi, vergi gelirlerimizin GSYH&#8217;ye oran\u0131 OECD ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda, ikincisi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak dolayl\u0131 vergilere dayan\u0131yor vergi gelirlerimiz.<\/p>\n<p>OVP ile temel sorunum program d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczeyi ile ilgili. Programda \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k-GSYH oran\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2010 ve 2011 y\u0131llar\u0131nda zaten y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k verdik. Bu durumda \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015f y\u0131l boyunca olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k vermi\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k-GSYH oran\u0131 rakamlar\u0131 y\u00fczde olarak \u015f\u00f6yle: 2010: 6.5, 2011: 9.4, 2012: 8.0, 2013: 7.5 ve 2014: 7.0. B\u00f6ylelikle 2014 sonunda son be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemin cari a\u00e7\u0131k oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 7.7 olacak.<\/p>\n<p>Tablo 1&#8217;de baz\u0131 y\u0131llar i\u00e7in o y\u0131l dahil son be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen cari a\u00e7\u0131k-GSYH oranlar\u0131 var. Tablo a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steriyor ki, 2014&#8217;te ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u015fimdiye de\u011fin hi\u00e7 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015f bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k olacak. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle, be\u015f y\u0131l \u00fcst \u00fcste hi\u00e7 bu denli y\u00fcksek d\u0131\u015f finansman bulamam\u0131\u015f\u0131z. Bu finansman\u0131 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bu ko\u015fullar\u0131nda bulabilir miyiz? Yukar\u0131da, a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda net d\u00f6viz giri\u015flerinin durdu\u011funu belirttim. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullarda bu durgunluk bir e\u011filim haline d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir. D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrse, OVP&#8217;deki \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerine (y\u00fczde 4, 5 ve 5) ula\u015fmakta zorluk \u00e7ekece\u011fimiz a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1558746616\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Cari a\u00e7\u0131k-GSYH oranlar\u0131 (%, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamalar)<\/p>\n<p>1995\u00a00.5<\/p>\n<p>2000\u00a01.1<\/p>\n<p>2005\u00a01.8<\/p>\n<p>2008\u00a05.2<\/p>\n<p>2010\u00a05.3<\/p>\n<p>2011\u00a06.0<\/p>\n<p>2014\u00a07.7<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Son g\u00fcnlerde hem \u00f6nemli veriler a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131 hem de \u00f6nemli politika metinleri. Bug\u00fcn i\u015fsizlik ve cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verileri ile Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) ve 2012&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6657","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6657","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6657"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6657\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6657"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6657"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6657"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}