{"id":6614,"date":"2011-10-18T09:43:32","date_gmt":"2011-10-18T06:43:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6614"},"modified":"2011-10-18T09:43:41","modified_gmt":"2011-10-18T06:43:41","slug":"ovp-uzerine-bazi-gozlemler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ovp-uzerine-bazi-gozlemler\/","title":{"rendered":"OVP \u00dczerine Baz\u0131 G\u00f6zlemler"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde \u015fimdiye de\u011fin hi\u00e7 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015f bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k olacak.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2251246334\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.radikal.com.tr\/150x113\/2011\/10\/17\/fft16_mf834713.Jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/>Geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 2012-2014 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan yeni Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. OVP\u2019de tak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131m temel nokta program d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczeyi. 2010 ve 2011 y\u0131llar\u0131nda gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131laya (GSYH) oranla y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k verdik: Y\u00fczde 6,5 ve y\u00fczde 9,4 (2011 y\u0131l\u0131 de\u011feri programda verilen tahmin). OVP bu y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k oran\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l daha s\u00fcrece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 2012: Y\u00fczde 8,0, 2013: Y\u00fczde 7,5 ve 2014: Y\u00fczde 7,0.<br \/>\nB\u00f6ylelikle 2014 sonunda son be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemin cari a\u00e7\u0131k oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 7.7 olacak. \u00dcstelik 2014\u2019te verilmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen cari a\u00e7\u0131k-GSYH oran\u0131, sermaye hareketlerini serbestle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz 1990\u2019dan 2010 sonuna kadar olan d\u00f6nemin en y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olacak. K\u0131sacas\u0131, be\u015f y\u0131l \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k verece\u011fiz ve d\u00f6nem sonunda h\u00e2l\u00e2 1990-2010 d\u00f6neminin en y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k oran\u0131na sahip olaca\u011f\u0131z. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle bu kadar y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 finanse edebilece\u011fiz. Nas\u0131l olacak bu i\u015f?<br \/>\nBir fikir edinmek i\u00e7in ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bakmak yararl\u0131 olacak. 1990\u2019dan sonra ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen cari a\u00e7\u0131k-GSYH oranlar\u0131na teker teker bakmak yerine her y\u0131l i\u00e7in son be\u015f y\u0131lda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ortalama cari a\u00e7\u0131k-GSYH oranlar\u0131na bakmak yeterli olacak. Tablo bu oranlar\u0131 (y\u00fczde olarak) g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcm 1990-2008 d\u00f6nemindeki en y\u00fcksek be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k-GSYH ortalamas\u0131 2008 y\u0131l\u0131nda verilmi\u015f. Bu nedenle ara y\u0131llara ili\u015fkin de\u011ferleri verip yaz\u0131y\u0131 rakama bo\u011fmaya gerek yok.<br \/>\nTablo a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steriyor ki, 2014\u2019te ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u015fimdiye de\u011fin hi\u00e7 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015f bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k olacak. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle be\u015f y\u0131l \u00fcst \u00fcste hi\u00e7 bu denli y\u00fcksek d\u0131\u015f finansman bulamam\u0131\u015f\u0131z. \u015eimdi d\u00f6rt soru:<br \/>\nBir: Hi\u00e7 k\u00fcresel kriz ya\u015fanmasayd\u0131 -d\u00fcnya g\u00fcll\u00fck g\u00fclistanl\u0131k olsayd\u0131- \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015f y\u0131l bu kadar finansman bulabilir miydik? \u0130ki: En az\u0131ndan OVP\u2019nin ilk y\u0131l\u0131 olan 2012\u2019nin de k\u00fcresel finansal sekt\u00f6r a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ge\u00e7ece\u011fi, yani ortal\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00fcll\u00fck g\u00fclistanl\u0131k olmayaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse bu finansman\u0131 bulur muyuz? \u00dc\u00e7: Avrupa Birli\u011fi neden sonra \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmde anla\u015f\u0131p zor durumdaki bankalar\u0131na sermaye deste\u011fi verirse bize bu kadar finansman kayna\u011f\u0131 kal\u0131r m\u0131? D\u00f6rt: 2010 ve 2011\u2019de neden a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7la finanse edebildik y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131? Yani neden zorland\u0131k?<br \/>\nBu sorulardan sonra akla hemen b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile d\u0131\u015f finansman ili\u015fkisi geliyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemler genellikle cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu, yani d\u0131\u015f finansmana \u015fu ya da bu bi\u00e7imde eri\u015febildi\u011fi y\u0131llar. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla son soru \u015fu: OVP\u2019deki \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerine (y\u00fczde 4, 5 ve 5) bile bu durumda nas\u0131l ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131z?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde \u015fimdiye de\u011fin hi\u00e7 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015f bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k olacak. Geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 2012-2014 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan yeni&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6614","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6614"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6614\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6614"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6614"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6614"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}