{"id":6576,"date":"2011-10-17T12:37:25","date_gmt":"2011-10-17T09:37:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6576"},"modified":"2011-10-17T14:03:09","modified_gmt":"2011-10-17T11:03:09","slug":"oncesi-ve-sonrasiyla-%e2%80%9cab-liderler-zirvesi%e2%80%9d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/oncesi-ve-sonrasiyla-%e2%80%9cab-liderler-zirvesi%e2%80%9d\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00d6ncesi ve sonras\u0131yla \u201cAB Liderler Zirvesi\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial;font-size: small\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">G\u00dcNCELLEME:<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0ALMANYA MALIYE BAKANI: AB LIDERLERI 23 EKIM ZIRVESINDE KALICI COZUM OLUSTURMAYACAKLAR&#8230; Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 yeni gelecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalar takip edilmeli. Senaryoyu de\u011fi\u015ftirebilecek bir a\u00e7\u0131klama.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1095829024\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: center\"><\/h1>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: center\"><\/h1>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: center\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">\u00d6ncesi ve sonras\u0131yla \u201cAB Liderler Zirvesi\u201d<\/span><\/h1>\n<p>G\u00fcn i\u00e7i k\u0131sa yorumlar\u0131m i\u00e7in Twitter Adresim:\u00a0<span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>@uzeyir_dogan<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Umut dolu bir haftay\u0131 geride b\u0131rakarak ve yine umutlarla dolu bir haftaya merhaba diyoruz. Piyasalar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc kula\u011f\u0131 AB\u2019den gelecek PIIGS ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k krizini \u00e7\u00f6zecek ad\u0131mlarda. Bu konuda \u015fuana kadarki geli\u015fmeler bu ay\u0131n 23\u2019\u00fcnde kapsaml\u0131 bir plan a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasalar da bu beklentiyle olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc devam ettiriyor. T\u00fcm k\u00fcrede hisse senedi endekslerinin neredeyse tamam\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketler olurken, AB\u2019de sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclece\u011fi beklentisi Euro\/Dolar paritesinde de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi destekliyor. Bunun yan\u0131nda emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda da genel olarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket izliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>\u00a0K\u00fcrenin gelece\u011fi AB\u2019nin elinde: \u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Gelelim 23 Ekim\u2019de AB\u2019den beklenen karara. \u00c7\u0131kabilecek kararlar\u0131n neler olaca\u011f\u0131 ve piyasalara nas\u0131l etki edebilece\u011finden \u00f6nce sorunu tan\u0131mlamak gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Avrupa\u2019da sorunun \u015fuanda \u00fc\u00e7 boyutu bulunuyor. Bunlardan ilki Yunanistan ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere iflas sorunu bulunan \u00fclkeler, ikincisi ciddi boyutlarda sermaye ihtiyac\u0131 olan bankalar ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc olarak da \u00fclkelerin ekonomi politikalar\u0131nda birlik olduklar\u0131 imaj\u0131 \u00e7izememeleri yani her \u00fclkenin kendi ba\u015f\u0131na buyruk hareket etmesi. 23 Kas\u0131m\u2019da bu sorunlardan hangisinin ya da hangilerinin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclece\u011fi y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131yla birlikte \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u00fcrecin de resmini ortaya koyabilir. Gelelim senaryolara, \u00f6ncelikli olarak piyasalar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verdi\u011fi senaryoya de\u011finecek olursak, bu senaryoda AB\u2019nin PIIGS ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k sorununa yani yukar\u0131da bahsetti\u011fimiz ilk iki soruna kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler getirece\u011fi bekleniyor. E\u011fer da\u011f fare do\u011furmaz ve AB bu iki sorun i\u00e7in kesenin a\u011fz\u0131n\u0131 gerekti\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u00e7ar ve garantiler verebilirse, plan\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta ufak \u00e7apl\u0131 kar realizasyonlar\u0131 gelse de borsalarda y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 kurtar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olur. Bu nedenle bu haftasonu bu y\u00f6nde bir karar a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olursa orta ve uzun vadeli hisse senedi al\u0131m\u0131nda bir mahsur g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz. Bu iki sorundan en acil \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bekleyeni olan bankac\u0131l\u0131k sorununa \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulunacak fakat PIIGS konusunda yeterli ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lmayacak olursa, k\u0131sa vadede bir rahatlama olabilir. Fakat orta ve uzun vadede ta ki ger\u00e7ek anlama bir \u00fclke iflas\u0131 gelene kadar, \u00f6ld\u00fcrmeyen ama g\u00fcld\u00fcrmeyen de bir piyasa s\u00fcrecine gireriz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Bahsetti\u011fimiz \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc problemle ilgili olarak beklentimiz, temennilerin gelece\u011fi ve k\u0131sa vadede olmasa da orta ve uzun vadede bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7inde olunaca\u011f\u0131 mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n verilmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu da di\u011fer ad\u0131mlar\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda \u015fuan i\u00e7in yeterli bir ad\u0131m olacakt\u0131r. \u00d6zetle bankac\u0131l\u0131k ve PIIGS sorununa birlikte \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretilecek bir senaryoda orta ve uzun vadeli portf\u00f6ylerde hisse senedi pozisyonlar\u0131na a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilmesi gerekece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta oldu\u011fu gibi bu hafta da bu beklentiyle co\u015fkunun devam etmesi karar sonras\u0131 ilk etapta bir kar realizasyonu gelmesine neden olabilir. Bu nedenle bu hafta primlerin abart\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda karar sonras\u0131 al\u0131m i\u00e7in bir s\u00fcre beklenebilir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">En k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryo AB\u2019nin hi\u00e7bir \u015fey yapmamas\u0131 ya da yapamamas\u0131:\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Bu senaryoya \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131k vermekle birlikte, e\u011fer AB bankac\u0131l\u0131k ve PIIGS krizini \u00e7\u00f6zme konusunda sa\u011flam bir irade ortaya koyamazsa, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ile birlikte t\u00fcm k\u00fcrede de Lehman Krizi sonras\u0131 ya\u015fanan kara tablo tekrarlanacak olur. \u015euana kadarki t\u00fcm g\u00f6stergeler AB ve Japonya haricinde global ekonominin genelinin resesyonun \u00e7ok uza\u011f\u0131nda oldu\u011fu ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin devam edece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de AB\u2019de ba\u015flayacak bir panik bu beklentilerin hepsinin tersine d\u00f6nmesine neden olabilir. Bu durumda hisse senetleri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere t\u00fcm riskli varl\u0131klardan ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f h\u0131zlan\u0131r. Fakat ba\u015fta da de\u011findi\u011fimiz gibi bu senaryonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Umar\u0131z yan\u0131lmay\u0131z.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2031186091\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">OVP a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131, temenniler g\u00fczel ama:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00a0\u0130\u00e7eride ise ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta 2012 ile 2014 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) h\u00fck\u00fcmet taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Plandaki temennileri olumlu kar\u015f\u0131lamakla birlikte, senaryonun fazla iyimser bir eksen \u00fczerine oturtuldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesindeyiz. Program\u0131n makroekonomik \u00e7er\u00e7evesi olu\u015fturulurken; d\u00f6nem i\u00e7erisinde, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin tedrici olarak artaca\u011f\u0131, ticaret ortaklar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ise daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi, y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomilerine sermaye giri\u015finin devam edece\u011fi, uluslararas\u0131 mal ve ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yatay bir seyir izleyece\u011fi varsay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Bu senaryoya g\u00f6re hedeflenen rakamlara ula\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, 2012\u2019de yap\u0131lacak bir referandum, 2013 yerel se\u00e7imleri ve 2014 Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesi mali disiplinde olabilecek bozulma, g\u00fcney s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131m\u0131zda, Suriye, Irak ve K\u0131br\u0131s Rum kesiminde ya\u015fanan sorunlar\u0131n \u015fiddetlenmesi ile askeri m\u00fcdahale se\u00e7enekleri ve AB\u2019nin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 da olsa b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrecine giremeyecek olmas\u0131 senaryolar\u0131ndan herhangi birinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, bu palanda bahsedilen hedeflere ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok zor hale getirecektir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Kurumlar\u0131n OVP hakk\u0131ndaki de\u011ferlendirmelerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda da temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Biz de bu yakla\u015f\u0131ma kat\u0131l\u0131yor ve piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131ndan OVP\u2019nin geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck bir etkisinin olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">ABD\u2019de bilan\u00e7olar izleniyor:<\/span><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-972490020\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">ABD\u2019de \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta Alcoa ile ba\u015flad\u0131. Alcoa beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kar a\u00e7\u0131klarken ard\u0131ndan gelen bilan\u00e7olardan beklentileri a\u015fanlar da vard\u0131. Fakat negatif bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n dahi piyasan\u0131n moralini bozmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Piyasalarda AB beklentisi devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece bu hafta da beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalan karlar\u0131n g\u00f6rmezden gelinebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle bilan\u00e7o kaynakl\u0131 ciddi gerilemeler beklememekle birlikte, AB\u2019den ters bir a\u00e7\u0131klama gelmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece olas\u0131 bir gerilemenin de al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu hafta ABD\u2019de bilan\u00e7osu a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00f6nemli \u015firketler ise \u015f\u00f6yle. Bug\u00fcn Citigroup, Wells Fargo ve IBM, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Bank of America, Coca-Cola, Goldman Sachs, Apple, Intel ve Yahoo, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc organ Stanley, American Express ve Ebay, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Microsoft ve Capital One, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise General Electric ve McDonald\u2019s.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">\u0130\u00e7eride ana g\u00fcndem PPK:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u0130\u00e7 g\u00fcndemde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ba\u015fl\u0131k Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek olan TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu Toplant\u0131s\u0131. TCMB\u2019den herhangi bir faiz de\u011fi\u015fim karar\u0131 ya da munzam ayarlamas\u0131 beklemiyoruz. Fakat \u015fuana kadar al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemlerin etkilerinin de\u011ferlendirilmesi ve gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik beklentiler takip edilmesi gereken a\u00e7\u0131klamalar olacak.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verilerden \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kanlar:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">17 Ekim 2011 Pazartesi:\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD Ekim Ay\u0131 Empire \u0130malat Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 16:15 \u2013 ABD Eyl\u00fcl Ay\u0131 Sanayi \u00dcretimi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 16:15 \u2013 ABD Eyl\u00fcl Ay\u0131 Kapasite Kullan\u0131m Oran\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>18 Ekim 2011 Sal\u0131:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12:00 \u2013 Almanya Ekim Ay\u0131 ZEW Anketi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12:00 \u2013 AB Ekim Ay\u0131 ZEW Anketi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD Eyl\u00fcl Ay\u0131 \u00dcFE<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 ABD Ekim Ay\u0131 NAHB Konut Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>19 Ekim 2011 \u00c7ar\u015famba:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD Eyl\u00fcl Ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD Eyl\u00fcl Ay\u0131 Konut Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD Eyl\u00fcl Ay\u0131 \u0130n\u015faat \u0130zinleri<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 21:00 \u2013 FED Bej Kitap Raporu\u2019nu yay\u0131nlayacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>20 Ekim 2011 Per\u015fembe:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14:00 \u2013 TCMB Faiz Oran\u0131 Karar\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 Euro B\u00f6lgesi Ekim Ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 ABD Eyl\u00fcl Ay\u0131 \u00d6nc\u00fc G\u00f6stergeler<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 ABD Ekim Ay\u0131 Philadelphia FED Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 ABD Eyl\u00fcl Ay\u0131 Mevcut Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>21 Ekim 2011 Cuma:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10:40 \u2013 Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trichet ve \u00dcyesi Stark Konu\u015fma Yapacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 11:00 \u2013 Almanya Ekim Ay\u0131 IFO \u0130\u015f G\u00fcveni Anketi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>23 Ekim 2011 Pazar:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Avrupa Birli\u011fi Liderler Zirvesi yap\u0131lacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00a0<span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>\u0130MKB 30 TEKN\u0130K ANAL\u0130Z\u0130\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u0130MKB\u2019de ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftay\u0131 art\u0131yla kapatm\u0131\u015f olmamam\u0131za kar\u015f\u0131n, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalarla k\u0131yaslad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda haftal\u0131k bazda primin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bunda \u00f6nceki haftalarda yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerden de daha az etkilenilmi\u015f olmas\u0131 etkili oldu. Teknik olarak grafikler pozitif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc korumaya devam ediyor. \u0130MKB 30\u2019da olu\u015fan simetrik \u00fc\u00e7gen formasyonunda hareket alan\u0131 gitgide daral\u0131yor. Bu formasyonda k\u0131r\u0131lma y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nceden kestirmek \u00e7ok zor olsa da endeksin son g\u00fcnlerde bu formasyonu yukar\u0131 do\u011fru k\u0131rma giri\u015fimini izliyoruz. K\u0131r\u0131lma sonras\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede \u00e7ok sert hareketler ya\u015fanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek. Bizler ge\u00e7en hafta oldu\u011fu gibi formasyonun yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcyor, bu nedenle de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlara temkinli yakla\u015farak, stratejimizi al\u0131m \u00fczerine kurmaya devam ediyoruz. Bu nedenle de olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerde destek seviyelerinden ya da diren\u00e7lerin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131yla al\u0131m yap\u0131lacak bir strateji izliyoruz. Endekste bu hafta bahsetti\u011fimiz formasyon gere\u011fi 73,000 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlara a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilmesi hatta a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlardan uzak durulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fakat 72,750 alt\u0131na olacak sarkmalarda k\u0131sa vadeli ve dar stoplu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemler yap\u0131labilir. Endekste g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn negatifle\u015fece\u011fi seviyemiz ise 72,000. Ciddi bir sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 ve panik havas\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131 yer ise 70,800 alt\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu seviye alt\u0131na olacak bir sarkma, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert hareketlerin ba\u015flamas\u0131na neden olabilir. Yukar\u0131da ise ilk olarak 74,000 direncini ard\u0131ndansa ana hedef olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 76,250\/76,500 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 takip ediyor olaca\u011f\u0131z. Bu direncin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede olmasa da ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde 80,000\u2019li rakamlar\u0131 dahi g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">USD\/TL TEKN\u0130K ANAL\u0130Z\u0130\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 geli\u015fmelerin verdi\u011fi destek ve TCMB\u2019nin m\u00fcdahalesi Dolar\/TL kurunda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n gerek dolar endeksine gerekse di\u011fer geli\u015fmekte olan para birimlerinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz iki haftadaki seyrine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda Dolar\/TL kurunda TCMB\u2019nin bask\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen gerilemenin emsallerinin ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durum bize TCMB m\u00fcdahalesinden ziyade orta vadede k\u00fcresel konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn takip edilmesi gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Kurda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde 1,8150 \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek konumundayken, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde takip etti\u011fimiz ilk \u00f6nemli diren\u00e7 1,85 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor. Kur bir s\u00fcre bu band i\u00e7inde hareket edebilir. Fakat \u00f6zellikle 1,85\u2019in a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda hareketin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 ve yeniden 1,90\u2019l\u0131 rakamlar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclme ihtimalinin artmas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Kur\u2019da sert geri \u00e7ekime ya\u015fan\u0131p ya\u015fanmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair bir \u00e7ok soru al\u0131yoruz. Bu konuda bizim g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz kurda 1,8150 deste\u011finin kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131p, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc yeni bir hareketin ba\u015flama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu y\u00f6nde bir olacak hareket i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z kazanmas\u0131 gerekece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Aksi takdirde TCMB m\u00fcdahalelerine ba\u011fl\u0131 sert geri \u00e7ekilme beklentimiz yok. Zaten TCMB\u2019nin de b\u00f6yle bir hedefi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, amac\u0131n\u0131n volatiliteyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00a0<strong>\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN<\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong>Kapital Menkul De\u011ferler A.\u015e.<\/strong><\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong>T\u00fcrev Ara\u00e7lar Birimi \/ Uzman<\/strong><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Tel: 0212 330 04 70<\/strong><strong><br \/>\nFax<strong>: 0212 330 0 369<\/strong><\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong><a title=\"blocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\nhttp:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" href=\"http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr<br \/>\n<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><a title=\"blocked::mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\nblocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" href=\"mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\"><strong>udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>UYARI: <\/strong>Burada yer alan yat\u0131r\u0131m bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda degildir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 hizmeti; Arac\u0131 kurumlar, portf\u00f6y y\u00f6netim sirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile m\u00fcsteri aras\u0131nda imzalanacak yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 s\u00f6zlesmesi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde sunulmaktad\u0131r. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanlar\u0131n kisisel g\u00f6r\u00fcslerine dayanmaktad\u0131r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcsler, mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanarak yat\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonu\u00e7lar dogurmayabilir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>G\u00dcNCELLEME:\u00a0ALMANYA MALIYE BAKANI: AB LIDERLERI 23 EKIM ZIRVESINDE KALICI COZUM OLUSTURMAYACAKLAR&#8230; Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 yeni gelecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalar takip edilmeli. Senaryoyu de\u011fi\u015ftirebilecek bir a\u00e7\u0131klama.\u00a0 \u00d6ncesi ve&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6576","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6576"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6576\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}