{"id":6479,"date":"2011-10-14T13:49:39","date_gmt":"2011-10-14T10:49:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6479"},"modified":"2011-10-14T13:49:51","modified_gmt":"2011-10-14T10:49:51","slug":"yeni-orta-vadeli-program","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yeni-orta-vadeli-program\/","title":{"rendered":"Yeni Orta Vadeli Program"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2009 y\u0131l\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ilk kez a\u00e7\u0131klanan ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l revize edilen Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) yeni \u015fekliyle, 2012-2014 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayacak \u015fekilde d\u00fcn kamuoyuna sunuldu.<br \/>\nKu\u015fkusuz belirsizli\u011fi azaltan ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00f6rmemize yard\u0131m eden bu t\u00fcr programlar ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i oldu\u011fu ve kredibilitesi sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131na da katk\u0131 yapan bir nitelik ta\u015f\u0131rlar.<br \/>\nAyn\u0131 zamanda &#8220;Mali Kural&#8221;\u0131n olmazsa olmaz ko\u015fulu olan OVP&#8217;ler kamu finansman\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flam olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren unsurlardan birisidir.<br \/>\nD\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan program konusundaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerimi \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetleyebilirim.<br \/>\n\u25a0 D\u00fcnya&#8217;n\u0131n i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu bu belirsizlik ve kriz ortam\u0131nda OVP yapmak zor bir i\u015ftir. Varsay\u0131mlar her an de\u011fi\u015febilir. Belirsizlik daha da artabilir.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Program\u0131n ba\u015fta IMF olmak \u00fczere uluslararas\u0131 baz\u0131 kurulu\u015flara dan\u0131\u015farak ve tart\u0131\u015farak haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 san\u0131yorum. B\u00f6yle de olmas\u0131 laz\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3208983375\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>B\u00dcT\u00c7EY\u0130 SA\u011eLAM TUT GER\u0130S\u0130N\u0130 D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcNME<\/strong><br \/>\n\u25a0 Erdo\u011fan h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri ekonomide bir ger\u00e7e\u011fin fark\u0131na vard\u0131lar; kamu maliyesinin dengesini sa\u011flad\u0131ktan sonra di\u011fer makro verileri kontrol etmenin kolay oldu\u011funu anlad\u0131lar.<br \/>\nNe yaz\u0131k ki bu anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131n uzun y\u0131llar olu\u015fmamas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;yi potansiyelinin alt\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131na itti.<br \/>\nBu konunun OVP&#8217;nin en temel noktas\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fkil etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerin ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i ve bizi G-20&#8217;ler aras\u0131nda kamu finansman dengesi ve kamu bor\u00e7lulu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131ndan \u00f6nde tutacak veriler oldu\u011fu kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Ancak OVP&#8217;nin kredibilitesi tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131. 2009 y\u0131l\u0131 program\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen rakamlar\u0131n hi\u00e7birisi tutmad\u0131. G-20&#8217;ler aras\u0131nda OVP hedeflerinden en fazla sapan \u00fclke biz olduk.<br \/>\nDolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu konuda sorunumuz var.<br \/>\n\u25a0 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 da tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 noktalardan birisi. Ben b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyorum. OVP&#8217;de yer alan y\u00fczde 4 kan\u0131mca makul bir oran.<br \/>\nAncak 2013 ve 2014 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in konulan y\u00fczde 5 oran\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131n dolu oldu\u011funu ise sanm\u0131yorum. &#8220;B\u00f6yle olur herhalde&#8221; diye konulmu\u015f veriler gibi geldi bana.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Enflasyon ise y\u00fczde 5&#8217;lik orta vadeli hedefe odaklanm\u0131\u015f. Y\u00fczde 5 yine sihirli rakam olarak dikkate al\u0131narak, Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n faizlerini art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131 sinyali verilmi\u015f gibi geldi bana.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise enerji faturas\u0131n\u0131n bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Halen y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 42.6 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde s\u00fcregiden enerji faturas\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemlerde elimizi ba\u011flayacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<br \/>\n\u25a0 OVP&#8217;nin d\u00f6viz ve faiz varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 bulamad\u0131m. Yetkililer a\u00e7\u0131klarsa \u00f6\u011frenebilece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>ZAMLARIN NEDEN\u0130<\/strong><br \/>\nD\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan zamlar ise OVP&#8217;nin bir par\u00e7as\u0131. Her ne kadar kamu finansman dengesi iyi olsa da Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz arac\u0131n\u0131 kullanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in &#8220;gev\u015fek&#8221; para politikas\u0131 uyguluyor.<br \/>\nBu nedenle h\u00fck\u00fcmetin azalacak b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate alarak, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 frenlemek ve kamu dengesini daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek amac\u0131yla bu beklenmeyen zamlar\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m.<br \/>\nTemel ama\u00e7 faizi art\u0131rmadan OVP&#8217;nin hedeflerini tutturabilmek.<br \/>\nIMF&#8217;nin de buna sesini \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Gazi ER\u00c7EL<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2009 y\u0131l\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ilk kez a\u00e7\u0131klanan ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l revize edilen Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) yeni \u015fekliyle, 2012-2014 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayacak \u015fekilde d\u00fcn kamuoyuna sunuldu.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":418,"featured_media":5395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6479","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/418"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6479"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6479\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}