{"id":6442,"date":"2011-10-14T09:40:14","date_gmt":"2011-10-14T06:40:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6442"},"modified":"2011-10-14T09:40:24","modified_gmt":"2011-10-14T06:40:24","slug":"orta-vadeli-program","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/orta-vadeli-program\/","title":{"rendered":"Orta Vadeli Program"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2012-2014 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan &#8220;Orta Vadeli Program&#8221; a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Asl\u0131nda program\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 biraz ge\u00e7 kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve merakla bekleniyordu. Temelde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde siyasi otoritenin d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;deki ekonomik geli\u015fme desenini nas\u0131l alg\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, nas\u0131l \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmledi\u011fini ve bunlarda \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olas\u0131 geli\u015fme dinamiklerini\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir belge bu orta vadeli program.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-318754801\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Mevcut durumun nas\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tabii \u00f6nemli ama program\u0131n esas \u00f6nemi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7in bir perspektif veriyor, bir ufuk \u00e7iziyor olmas\u0131. Bir t\u00fcr yol g\u00f6sterici yani. Bidi\u011finiz gibi, bu g\u00fcnlerde d\u00fcnya ekonomisi yeniden kar\u0131\u015f\u0131yor, a\u011f\u0131r resesyon s\u00f6ylentilerinin ortal\u0131kta dola\u015f\u0131yor ve bu tablonun T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye de bula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 korkusu yay\u0131l\u0131yor.\u00a0 Ortam b\u00f6ylesine bulan\u0131k olunca, ekonomiyi y\u00f6netenlerin tutum ve niyetlerini bilmek daha da \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, b\u00f6yle bir programa olan ihtiya\u00e7 \u015fimdi daha da artm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda siyasi otoritenin b\u00f6yle orta vadeli e\u011filimlerini ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini a\u00e7\u0131klama yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 pek de yeni say\u0131lmaz. Yan\u0131lm\u0131yorsam d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan program bunlar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc. AKP h\u00fckumetleri orta vadeli hedef ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini s\u0131kca yenileyip, g\u00fcncelleyerek yoluna devam ediyor. Bana kal\u0131rsa iyi de yap\u0131yor. Hem uyar\u0131yor, yol g\u00f6steriyor hem de kendi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ve e\u011filimlerini alenile\u015ftirerek de\u011ferlendirmeye sunuyor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Belli bir vadeye yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f plan, program t\u00fcr\u00fc giri\u015fimlerin de\u011ferlendirilmesinde benim \u00f6ncelikle \u00f6nem verdi\u011fim temel bir kriter var. Tutarl\u0131l\u0131k kriteridir bu. Bu belgeler \u00f6ncelikle tutarl\u0131 olmak zorundad\u0131rlar diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Aksi takdirde adlar\u0131 plan ya da program da olsa havada u\u00e7u\u015fan, hayal aleminde yol almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan, yol g\u00f6stermekten \u00e7ok yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olan, kimsenin i\u015fine yaramayan belgeler olman\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7emez\u00a0 bunlar.<\/p>\n<p>Bu t\u00fcr programlar\u00a0 mevcut durum ve\u00a0 ko\u015fullarla uyumlu ve tutarl\u0131 olmal\u0131d\u0131r;\u00a0 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc hedefler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kendi i\u00e7inde tutarl\u0131 olmal\u0131d\u0131r; ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck imkan ve olas\u0131l\u0131klarla da\u00a0 tutarl\u0131 olmak durumundad\u0131r. Plan ve programlar bu \u00fc\u00e7 tutarl\u0131l\u0131kdan yoksunsa g\u00fcven vermezler ve\u00a0 bunlar\u0131 ciddi bir yol g\u00f6sterici olarak de\u011ferlendirmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmaz. Tutarl\u0131 olmayan belgeler do\u011frudan rafa kald\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan orta vadeli program\u0131n bu \u00fc\u00e7 tutarl\u0131l\u0131k kriteri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da olumlu oldu\u011fu kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m. Yay\u0131nlanan resmi metnin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu ko\u015fullar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesine ayr\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcmde yap\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirmeler ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i ve tutarl\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki olas\u0131 geli\u015fme dinami\u011finin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ile ba\u011flant\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda da ger\u00e7ek\u00e7ilik ve tutarl\u0131l\u0131k kayg\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. \u00d6zetle ifade etmek gerekirse d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda kayda de\u011fer bir canlanma olmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve bunun da T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposunu yava\u015flataca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck tasar\u0131mlar\u0131n bu temel motife g\u00f6re yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 izlenimini ta\u015f\u0131yorum ve bunun ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i ve tutarl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-899506781\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Orta vadeli programda 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda ekonominin y\u00fczde 7.5 gibi g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek bir h\u0131zda b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Daha sonra b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flayarak 2012 de y\u00fczde 4 d\u00fczeyine gerileyece\u011fi, sonraki iki y\u0131lda da ekonominin y\u00fczde 5 h\u0131z\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bunlar so\u011fukkanl\u0131 ve olduk\u00e7a muhafazakar say\u0131labilecek \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler. B\u00fcy\u00fcme ekseninde u\u00e7an ka\u00e7an bir \u015fey yok anlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefleri b\u00f6yle belirlenince gerisi de buna g\u00f6re bi\u00e7imleniyor tabii. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2011 de y\u00fczde 10.5 olaca\u011f\u0131\u00a0 tahmin edilen i\u015fsizlik oarn\u0131n\u0131n 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda ancak y\u00fczde 9.9 d\u00fczeyine gerileyebilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 tahmininden hareketle bu y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda y\u00fczde 9.4 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen cari a\u00e7\u0131k\/GSMH oran\u0131n\u0131n 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7 oran\u0131na kadar geriletilebilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Kamu maliyesi alan\u0131ndaki hedeflerin orta vadeli program\u0131n en \u00f6nemli yol g\u00f6stericileri. Oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bunlar ayn\u0131 zamanda siyasi iktidar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan program\u0131n temel ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 unsurlar\u0131. Orta vadeli program hem zihniyet hem de hedefleme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011fi\u015fen bir \u015fey olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Uzun s\u00fcredir devam ettirilen ve son kriz s\u00fcrecinde olumlu meyveleri al\u0131nan mali disiplinin,\u00a0 belki biraz da dozu artt\u0131r\u0131larak, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fini g\u00f6steren say\u0131sal hedefler ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler var. Bunu da, ger\u00e7ek\u00e7ilik ve ortamla tutarl\u0131l\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, program\u0131n en \u00f6nemli \u00f6zelli\u011fi olarak kayda ge\u00e7irmek istiyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-614875075\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2012-2014 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan &#8220;Orta Vadeli Program&#8221; a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Asl\u0131nda program\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 biraz ge\u00e7 kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve merakla bekleniyordu. Temelde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde siyasi otoritenin d\u00fcnya ve&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6442","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6442","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6442"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6442\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6442"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6442"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6442"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}