{"id":6439,"date":"2011-10-14T09:39:24","date_gmt":"2011-10-14T06:39:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6439"},"modified":"2011-10-14T09:39:33","modified_gmt":"2011-10-14T06:39:33","slug":"keske-ovp-zamlarla-birlikte-aciklanmasaydi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/keske-ovp-zamlarla-birlikte-aciklanmasaydi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ke\u015fke OVP Zamlarla Birlikte A\u00e7\u0131klanmasayd\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00dc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131k beklentileri i\u00e7eren OVP&#8217;leri a\u00e7\u0131klayabilmek belirsizli\u011fi azalt\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fcveni ve istikrar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131r. Do\u011fald\u0131r ki y\u0131ldan y\u0131la hedeflerle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme aras\u0131nda bu y\u0131l oldu\u011fu gibi sapmalar olacak, bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nem hedefleriyle ilgili rakamlar\u0131n revize edilmesini beraberinde getirecektir. O nedenle d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2012-2014 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan OVP g\u00fcven verici \u00f6nemli bir belgedir. Ke\u015fke \u00d6DP de\u011fi\u015fimleriyle gelen zamlarla birlikte a\u00e7\u0131klanmasayd\u0131. O zaman zam haberlerinin g\u00f6lgesinde kalmadan medyada daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 yer bulurdu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2543112111\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k OVP a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rken, bir yandan da otomobil, i\u00e7ki, sigara ve telefona g\u00fcncelleme zamlar\u0131\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Ke\u015fke birlikte a\u00e7\u0131klanmasayd\u0131 da bu y\u0131l b\u00fct\u00e7e \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi a\u00e7\u0131klanabilen \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131k OVP daha \u00f6nde ele al\u0131nabilseydi. \u00d6yle olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Ali Babacan ve Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek&#8217;in ortak bas\u0131n toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda sorular a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmek amac\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilen, &#8220;g\u00fcncelleme zamlar\u0131&#8221; ile ilgili oldu. Maliye Bakan\u0131 \u015eim\u015fek, &#8220;yap\u0131lanlar\u0131 g\u00fcncelleme olarak de\u011ferlendirmek gerekti\u011fini zam olarak niitelendirmemeyi \u00f6nerdiyse de, bug\u00fcn herhalde &#8220;Zam ya\u011fmuru&#8221; ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131yla, de\u011fi\u015fen \u00d6TV oranlar\u0131n\u0131n medyada OVP&#8217;dan \u00e7ok daha fazla yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na tan\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim OVP ile ilgili d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerimize:<\/p>\n<p>-Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n 2011-2013 program\u0131 rakamlar\u0131nda yer alan bu y\u0131l \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinde sapmalar oldu\u011fu d\u00fcn\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2012-2014 program\u0131nda 2012 ve 2013 hedeflerinin revize edildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu revizyonun a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak d\u0131\u015f konjent\u00fcre ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu, k\u00fcresel yava\u015flaman\u0131n ve olumsuzlu\u011fun yans\u0131mas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>-Bunun bir ba\u015fka yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n yeni d\u00f6nemde de b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flama, i\u015fsizlikte y\u00fczde 10&#8217;un alt\u0131n\u0131n ancak 2014&#8217;te ve y\u00fczde 9.9 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fi, cari a\u00e7\u0131kta \u00f6nemli gerilemenin bu \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda beklenmemesi gerekti\u011fi, b\u00fcy\u00fcmede bu y\u0131l yukar\u0131 do\u011fru bir sapma ile y\u00fczde 4.5&#8217;luk beklentinin, y\u00fczde 7.5&#8217;luk ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyle sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Gelecek y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcmede eski tahminin alt\u0131na y\u00fczde 4&#8217;e gerileyece\u011fi yeni beklenti olarak ortaya konuluyor. Ondan sonraki iki y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 5 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fi OVP&#8217;de yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>-\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k temel ekonomik g\u00f6stergelerin hedefleri 2012-14 OVP&#8217;sinde muafazakar beklentiler olarak sunuluyor. Bunda k\u00fcresel ekonomilerdeki yava\u015flaman\u0131n, ve k\u00fcresel karar mekanizmalar\u0131ndaki belirsiz davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n etkisi var. K\u00fcresel geli\u015fmeleri \u00f6ng\u00f6rememek bu sonucu getirmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak o durum bir soruya da neden oluyor:&#8221;K\u00fcresel belirsizlik kriz yarat\u0131rsa bu hedefler tuturulabilir mi?\u00a0 K\u00fcresel ortamda olumlu geli\u015fmeler olur, belirsizlik azal\u0131r, iyiye gidi\u015f g\u00f6zlenirse o zaman bu hedefler \u00e7ok m\u00fctevazi kalmaz m\u0131? San\u0131r\u0131m b\u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek bizi olumlu ve olumsuz iki senaryolu bir \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l program\u0131na y\u00f6neltecektir.<\/p>\n<p>-Ancak k\u00fcresel belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini bir program i\u00e7ersinde a\u00e7\u0131klayan \u00fclke olmak \u00f6nemlidir. Bu d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye bakanlara g\u00fcven verecektir. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;deki piyasa akt\u00f6rleri de zaten b\u00f6yle bir program\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131ndan memnuniyetlerini d\u00fcn yapt\u0131klar\u0131 ilk a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda net bir \u015fekilde ortaya koyarlarken, &#8220;Hedefleri ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bulduklar\u0131&#8221; de\u011ferlendirmesini de a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131kla dile getirdiler.<\/p>\n<p>-2012-2014 OVP a\u00e7\u0131klanan m\u00fctevazi hedefler \u00f6nemli bir k\u00fcresel kriz ya\u015fanmamas\u0131 halinde rahatl\u0131kla yerine gelebilecek olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. San\u0131r\u0131m bu hedefler konusunda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde en \u00e7ok dolar kururdaki art\u0131\u015f irdelenecektir.\u00a0 Programda dolar kurundaki art\u0131\u015f 2012&#8217;de y\u00fczde 3.7, 2013&#8217;te y\u00fczde 2, 2014&#8217;te y\u00fcde2.8 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Buna g\u00f6re halen 1.83 seviyesinde,\u00a0 2011 y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 162.79\u00a0 olan dolar\u0131n 2014 y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n 1.82 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi tahmini yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3850008790\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Her \u015fey bir yana T\u00fcrkiye \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k OVP&#8217;lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayarak ve bunu her y\u0131l tekrarlayarak, belirsizli\u011fi azaltan, g\u00fcveni art\u0131ran bir tablo ortaya koyuyor. Bu programda hedefleriyle y\u0131ll\u0131k sonu\u00e7larda\u00a0 sapmalar olmas\u0131 buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak yeni programda yeni y\u0131l rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n revize edilmesi do\u011fald\u0131r. Beklentimiz bu sapmalar\u0131n bu \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemde de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. \u00d6yle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi belirsizli\u011fi azaltacak, g\u00fcveni art\u0131racak ve istikrar\u0131 peki\u015ftirecektir\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00dc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131k beklentileri i\u00e7eren OVP&#8217;leri a\u00e7\u0131klayabilmek belirsizli\u011fi azalt\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fcveni ve istikrar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131r. Do\u011fald\u0131r ki y\u0131ldan y\u0131la hedeflerle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme aras\u0131nda bu y\u0131l oldu\u011fu&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":903,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6439","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6439","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6439"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6439\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6439"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6439"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6439"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}