{"id":643,"date":"2011-06-01T10:33:23","date_gmt":"2011-06-01T07:33:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=643"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:35:59","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:35:59","slug":"secim-oncesi-ve-sonrasinda-ekonomi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/secim-oncesi-ve-sonrasinda-ekonomi\/","title":{"rendered":"Se\u00e7im \u00d6ncesi ve Sonras\u0131nda Ekonomi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Se\u00e7ime pek bir \u015fey kalmad\u0131. Gelecek hafta sonunda sand\u0131klara gidece\u011fiz. Sonraki haftaya da yeni siyasi ko\u015fullarda ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131z. Se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesindeki ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve se\u00e7im sonras\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 risklerine ili\u015fkin\u00a0 bir dizi de\u011ferlendirme yapman\u0131n vaktidir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-169307876\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Temel bir ayr\u0131mla i\u015fe ba\u015flamak do\u011fru olur. Se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde var olan yap\u0131sal sorunlar se\u00e7im sonras\u0131na da ta\u015f\u0131nacakt\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin, yoksulluk se\u00e7imin ard\u0131ndan hemen yok olmayacak, gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmeyecektir. Sanayinin ve d\u0131\u015f ticaretin\u00a0 yap\u0131s\u0131 yeni d\u00f6nemde de sorun olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir. \u0130\u015fsizli\u011fin yap\u0131ya ba\u011fl\u0131 par\u00e7as\u0131 aynen devam edecek, yani i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 hemen s\u0131f\u0131ra kadar geriletilemeyecektir. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n da yap\u0131dan \u00fcreyen bir par\u00e7as\u0131 vard\u0131r,\u00a0 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla cari a\u00e7\u0131k da b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle buharla\u015fmayacakt\u0131r. Bu t\u00fcr yap\u0131sal sorunlar yeni iktidar d\u00f6nemine de ta\u015f\u0131nacak ve \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm i\u00e7in ilk ad\u0131m\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenecektir.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k konjonkt\u00fcr se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde ve sonras\u0131nda farkl\u0131 nitelikler kazanabilir. Se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi ve sonras\u0131nda ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcy\u00fc farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilecek de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin ba\u015f\u0131nda beklentilerin geldi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenir. Se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde sonu\u00e7lara ili\u015fkin siyasi belirsizilik yo\u011fundur. Akt\u00f6rler se\u00e7imin ard\u0131ndan ne gelece\u011fini kestiremezler. Bu iklim akt\u00f6rleri g\u00f6rece ihtiyatl\u0131 olmaya y\u00f6nlendirir.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinin belirgin \u00f6zelli\u011fi ekonomiye ihtiyatl\u0131 beklentilerin egemen olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu beklenti ikliminin belirledi\u011fi konjonkt\u00fcrde harcamalar ertelenir, iktisadi tempo yava\u015flar, ekonomi h\u0131z keser. K\u0131sacas\u0131, se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde bir dura\u011fanl\u0131k iklimi ekonomiye egemen olur.<\/p>\n<p>Se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde beklenen bu tablonun boyutlar\u0131 ku\u015fkusuz\u00a0 beklentilerin ne kadar bozuldu\u011funa ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Bu bozulmada da se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik dozu \u00f6nemli rol oynar. Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 kolayca kestirilebiliyor ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen sonu\u00e7 olumlu kar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131yorsa beklenti bozulmas\u0131 ya hi\u00e7 olmaz ya da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131r. Bu durumda, se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecinde g\u00f6rece olumlu beklentilerle hareket eden\u00a0 ekonomi duraklama konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcne y\u00f6nelmez.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>2011 se\u00e7imlerine giden s\u00fcre\u00e7te beklentilerin ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine egemen olan konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn ciddi bir de\u011fi\u015fme g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek do\u011fru olmaz. Tersine, beklentilerin g\u00f6rece olumlu oldu\u011fu ve ekonominin sanki se\u00e7im olmayacakm\u0131\u015f gibi bir iktisadi iklimde yoluna devam etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1481544273\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bunun ekonominin g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve az sorunlu olmas\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler olabilir. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde do\u011fru da olabilir. Ama, kendi ad\u0131ma, se\u00e7ime giden T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde bir se\u00e7im konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fc olu\u015fmamas\u0131n\u0131n temel nedeninin akt\u00f6rlerin olas\u0131 se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerinde aranmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye hakim olan siyasi kanaat, mevcut\u00a0 iktidar partisinin se\u00e7imden tekrar tek ba\u015f\u0131na iktidar olarak \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bu yayg\u0131n kanaat se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde olu\u015fmas\u0131 muhtemel beklenti bozulmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemi\u015f, ekonomide bir konjonkt\u00fcr d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc kesmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde yava\u015flama, duraklama konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcnden\u00a0 \u00e7ok k\u00fcresel krizin ard\u0131ndan ba\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn etkisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u00f6ylenebilir. Bu iktidara se\u00e7im avantaj\u0131 veren bir tablodur. Bu tablonun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta ters d\u00f6nmesi de olas\u0131 de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ktidar partisi iktisadi akt\u00f6rlerde yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 siyasi devaml\u0131l\u0131k alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n olumlu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 se\u00e7men oyuna \u00e7evirecektir ku\u015fkusuz. Ama ayn\u0131 tablonun se\u00e7im sonras\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131p, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek kolay g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.\u00a0 \u0130\u015fin bu taraf\u0131n\u0131 da\u00a0 gelecek yaz\u0131da irdeleriz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-678869814\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/adserver.dunya.com\/www\/delivery\/ck.php?oaparams=2__bannerid=276__zoneid=13__cb=3968457473__oadest=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dunya.com%2Fosman-arolat_17_0_yazar.html\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">Osman Arolat, yaz\u0131lar\u0131yla g\u00fcndeme \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutuyor<\/a><\/p>\n<div id=\"beacon_3968457473\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/adserver.dunya.com\/www\/delivery\/lg.php?bannerid=276&amp;campaignid=43&amp;zoneid=13&amp;loc=1&amp;referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dunya.com%2Fprof-dr-taner-berksoy_132_0_yazar.html&amp;cb=3968457473\" alt=\"\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\" \/><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Se\u00e7ime pek bir \u015fey kalmad\u0131. Gelecek hafta sonunda sand\u0131klara gidece\u011fiz. Sonraki haftaya da yeni siyasi ko\u015fullarda ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131z. Se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesindeki ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve se\u00e7im sonras\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/643","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=643"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/643\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=643"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=643"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=643"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}