{"id":6389,"date":"2011-10-13T09:28:39","date_gmt":"2011-10-13T06:28:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6389"},"modified":"2011-10-13T09:28:53","modified_gmt":"2011-10-13T06:28:53","slug":"euro-krizinin-ekonomi-politigi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/euro-krizinin-ekonomi-politigi\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro Krizinin Ekonomi Politi\u011fi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Mali piyasalar\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne y\u00f6nelik korkular\u0131 azalm\u0131\u015fa benziyor. D\u00fcn borsalar y\u00fckseldi. Euro de\u011fer kazand\u0131, parite 1.37\u2019yi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130\u00e7eride de d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 sakinle\u015fti.\u00a0<span><strong>Son<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda dolar 1.82 TL\u2019ye gelmi\u015fti.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2342734231\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 a\u011fustos \u00f6demeler dengesini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. A\u011fustos cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 4 milyar dolarda kald\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k 75 milyar dolarla\u00a0<span><strong>yeni<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0rekor k\u0131rd\u0131. Beklentilerle uyumludur. \u0130lgin\u00e7 yeni bilgi g\u00f6remedim. Bundan sonra ne olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Hazine nakit dengesi eyl\u00fcl sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 yay\u0131nlad\u0131. B\u00fct\u00e7enin \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergesidir. Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de y\u00fcksek faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazla var. Ama \u00f6nceki ay\u0131n vergi tahsilat\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Dokuz ayl\u0131k nakit a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise 2 milyar TL\u2019de kald\u0131. B\u00fct\u00e7e\u00a0<span><strong>i\u00e7in<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0iyi haberdir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Nakit yetersizli\u011fi ve iflas<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bir bor\u00e7 anla\u015fmas\u0131 ne\u00a0<span><strong>zaman<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0sorunlu olur? Bor\u00e7lu taahh\u00fct etti\u011fi faiz ve anapara \u00f6demelerini yapamaz. Bor\u00e7lunun \u015fah\u0131s, \u015firket ya da devlet olmas\u0131 sonucu de\u011fi\u015ftirmez. Bor\u00e7lu ve alacakl\u0131lar m\u00fczakere masas\u0131na oturmak zorunda kal\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ki ayr\u0131 \u015fekli vard\u0131r. \u0130lki nakit ak\u0131m\u0131 uyumsuzlu\u011fudur. Bor\u00e7lunun varl\u0131klar\u0131 y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini kar\u015f\u0131lar. Yani m\u00fcflis de\u011fildir. Ancak nakit giri\u015fi faiz ve anapara \u00f6demeleri i\u00e7in yetersizdir. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc kolayd\u0131r. Yeni bir \u00f6deme plan\u0131\u00a0<span><strong>ile<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0sorun a\u015f\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011ferinde bor\u00e7lunun y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri varl\u0131klar\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr. Yani m\u00fcflistir. Ortada ger\u00e7ek bir kay\u0131p vard\u0131r. Bunun bor\u00e7lu ve alacakl\u0131lar aras\u0131nda payla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 zorunludur. \u00c7\u0131karlar \u00e7at\u0131\u015f\u0131r. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm s\u00fcreci tam bir bilek g\u00fcre\u015fine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne uygulayal\u0131m. \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya asl\u0131nda ilk kategoridedir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Yunanistan fiilen ikinci kategoriye ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. Mevcut bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri \u00f6demesi ihtimali olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-644911987\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130lle b\u00f6yle olmas\u0131 gerekiyor muydu? Hay\u0131r. Devletler iflas etmez. Vergileri art\u0131r\u0131r, harcamalar\u0131 k\u0131sar, borcunu \u00f6der. Ko\u015fulu vatanda\u015f\u0131n kemerinin s\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 onaylamas\u0131d\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de vatanda\u015f kabul etti. Yunanistan\u2019da reddetti.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kavga i\u00e7inde kavga<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131nt\u0131lara girelim. \u0130lk a\u015famada Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n pay\u0131 saptanmal\u0131d\u0131r. Almanya ilk ba\u015fta k\u00f6t\u00fc \u00f6rne\u011fi engellemek i\u00e7in \u201chepsi\u201d diyordu. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye de uygulanan IMF y\u00f6ntemidir. Y\u00fcr\u00fcmedi. Alacakl\u0131lar\u0131n da bedele kat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Ne kadar? Kavgas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci a\u015fama kayb\u0131n alacakl\u0131lar aras\u0131nda payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131d\u0131r. Ne kadar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zel kesim (banka hissedarlar\u0131), ne kadar\u0131n devlet (vergi m\u00fckellefi) \u00f6deyecek? Almanya \u201c\u00f6zel kesim\u201d diyordu. Vatanda\u015f\u0131n tavr\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu kavga da devam ediyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3644095107\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, kamuya kalan kayb\u0131n devletler aras\u0131nda payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131d\u0131r. Ne kadar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcye \u00fclke hazineleri, ne kadar\u0131n\u0131 euro b\u00f6lgesi genel hazinesi \u00f6deyecek? San\u0131r\u0131m tahmin ettiniz: Almanya \u201cher \u00fclke kendi \u00f6desin\u201d diyordu. Di\u011ferleri ile tutarl\u0131d\u0131r. Bu da sonu\u00e7lanmad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Muhtemel uzla\u015fman\u0131n ana hatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131yoruz. Bir: Yunanistan\u2019a k\u0131smi bor\u00e7 aff\u0131 geliyor. \u0130ki: Bankalar mutlaka bedel \u00f6d\u00fcyor. \u00dc\u00e7: Her \u00fclke bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ek sermaye ihtiyac\u0131na katk\u0131da bulunuyor. D\u00f6rt: Kalan\u0131 b\u00f6lgenin m\u00fc\u015fterek kasas\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Yapabilecekler mi? Ben iyimserim. Zaten fazla s\u00fcrmez, yak\u0131nda \u00f6\u011freniriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mali piyasalar\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne y\u00f6nelik korkular\u0131 azalm\u0131\u015fa benziyor. D\u00fcn borsalar y\u00fckseldi. Euro de\u011fer kazand\u0131, parite 1.37\u2019yi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130\u00e7eride de d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 sakinle\u015fti.\u00a0Son\u00a0bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda dolar 1.82 TL\u2019ye&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6389","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6389"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6389\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6389"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6389"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6389"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}