{"id":6339,"date":"2011-10-12T09:07:30","date_gmt":"2011-10-12T06:07:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6339"},"modified":"2011-10-12T09:41:58","modified_gmt":"2011-10-12T06:41:58","slug":"kur-yukselisinin-nedenleri-ve-politika-imkanlari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kur-yukselisinin-nedenleri-ve-politika-imkanlari\/","title":{"rendered":"Kur y\u00fckseli\u015finin nedenleri ve politika imkanlar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00f6viz kuru bir kere kafalar\u0131 me\u015fgul etmeye ba\u015flay\u0131nca merak s\u00fcr\u00fcp\u00a0 gidiyor. \u015eu s\u0131ralarda g\u00fcndemin ba\u015f k\u00f6\u015fesindeki soru k\u00fcmesi yine d\u00f6viz kuru ile ilgili. Bana soru olarak y\u00f6neltilen iki nokta var. D\u00f6viz kurundaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam edip etmeyece\u011fi bunlardan birisi. D\u00f6viz kurundaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi durduracak\u00a0 ya da kontrol alt\u0131na alacak politikalar olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorusu da ikincisi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2757551265\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u00f6viz kurundaki hareket temelde d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131ndaki arz ve talep b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerindeki de\u011fi\u015fmelerden kaynaklan\u0131r. D\u00f6viz arz ve talebi de i\u00e7eride ve\/veya d\u0131\u015far\u0131da olu\u015facak baz\u0131 geli\u015fmelerden etkilenerek de\u011fi\u015fir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, i\u00e7eride ya da d\u0131\u015far\u0131da olu\u015fabilecek ve beklentileri etkileyecek geli\u015fmeler d\u00f6viz arz ve talebini dolay\u0131s\u0131yla d\u00f6viz kurunu de\u011fi\u015ftirir. Bu t\u00fcr geli\u015fmeler \u00e7o\u011fu zaman spek\u00fclatif motifler de ta\u015f\u0131r. D\u00f6viz arz ve talebi \u00fczerinde etkili olarak d\u00f6viz kurunu hareket ettirebilecek ikinci bir geli\u015fme de yine ulusal veya\u00a0 k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte olu\u015fabilecek makroekonomik dengesizlikler\u00a0 veya denge bozulmalar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu fazlas\u0131yla basitle\u015ftirilmi\u015f bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve ku\u015fkusuz. Ama b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle yanl\u0131\u015f da say\u0131lmaz.\u00a0 \u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz durumu a\u00e7\u0131klamakta da epeyce yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>S\u0131k\u00e7a soruldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi\u011fim sorular\u0131n cevab\u0131n\u0131 da bu t\u00fcr bir analitik sorgulamayla arayabiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6nce kendi kanaat\u0131m\u0131 s\u00f6yleyeyim. Son s\u0131ralarda lirada g\u00f6zlenen h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u0131\u015far\u0131da, uluslararas\u0131 planda geli\u015fen ve risk alg\u0131s\u0131 ile beklentilerde ciddi\u00a0\u00a0 bozulmalar yaratan olaylardan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m. D\u0131\u015far\u0131da olu\u015fan bu iklim i\u00e7eriden d\u00f6viz ka\u00e7mas\u0131na neden olarak d\u00f6viz arz\u0131n\u0131 daralt\u0131yor. Liran\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fi beklentisini uyararak d\u00f6vize d\u00f6n\u00fck spek\u00fclatif bir talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. D\u0131\u015far\u0131dan uyar\u0131lan bu arz-talep dinami\u011finin d\u00f6viz kurunu h\u0131zla yukar\u0131ya itti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Makroekonomik dengesizliklerin b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle etkisiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemiyorum. Ama ilk ve en \u00f6nemli etkininin dengesizlikler oldu\u011fu kan\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011filim. Uluslararas\u0131 planda ve\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde makroekonomik dengelerin bozuk oldu\u011funu biliyoruz. Bizde b\u00fcy\u00fck cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u015feklinde somutla\u015fan bu dengesizli\u011fin d\u00f6viz talebini besledi\u011fi ve d\u00f6viz kuru \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 da malum. D\u00f6viz kuru \u00fczerindeki bu bask\u0131n\u0131n fiilen\u00a0 bir kur y\u00fckselmesine ve liran\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesinin d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelen sermaye giri\u015fi, yani d\u00f6viz arz\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u00a0 taraf\u0131ndan engellendi\u011fi de bildiklerimiz aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. Bu durumda makroekonomik dengesizliklerin d\u00f6viz kurundaki son y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan de\u011filse de dolayl\u0131 etkiler yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Dengesizliklerin mevcudiyeti risk alg\u0131s\u0131\u00a0 ve beklenti iklimindeki bozulmay\u0131 besleyerek\u00a0 kurdaki y\u00fckselmenin daha da vurgulu hale gelmesine neden olaca\u011f\u0131 gayet a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n<p>Bizde de aynen b\u00f6yle oldu san\u0131r\u0131m. D\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 beklenti bozulmas\u0131n\u0131n kur \u00fczerinde yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 cari a\u00e7\u0131k nedeniyle abart\u0131l\u0131 hale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve bu etkile\u015fimin d\u00f6viz kurunu olabilece\u011finden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselme y\u00f6r\u00fcngesine oturttu\u011funu\u00a0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-128407871\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi gelelim s\u0131k sorulan sorulara. D\u00f6viz kurundaki y\u00fckselme ve liran\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 devam eder mi? Ba\u015fta Avrupa ve ABD olmak \u00fczere geli\u015fmi\u015f d\u00fcnyadaki \u00e7aresizlik g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleri a\u015f\u0131l\u0131p, gerekli siyasi irade ortaya konulamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece belirsizliklerin artarak devam edece\u011fi, beklentilerin bozulaca\u011f\u0131 ve\u00a0 d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131lar\u0131n devam edece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu s\u00fcreci\u00a0 durduracak ya da kontrol alt\u0131na alacak ulusal politikalar var m\u0131? Lira \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bizim d\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131zdaki bozulmalardan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re ulusal politikalar uygulayarak bu s\u00fcreci b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle tersine \u00e7evirmemiz pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmaz diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Ama s\u00fcrecin kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. \u0130ki imkan\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Birisi, risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ve beklentileri do\u011fru y\u00f6netmektir. \u00d6teki de d\u00f6viz arz ve talebindeki abart\u0131l\u0131 oynamalar\u0131 dengeleyecek, spek\u00fclasyonu cezaland\u0131racak miktar m\u00fcdaheleleri yapmakt\u0131r<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1181422966\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Beklenti y\u00f6netiminde hala pek becerikli oldu\u011fumuz s\u00f6ylenemez. TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n bir d\u00f6viz kuru hedefi oldu\u011funu \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran beyanlar\u0131 bunun son \u00f6rne\u011fidir. M\u00fcdahale taraf\u0131nda ise do\u011fru i\u015flerin yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Cesaretle ve b\u00fcy\u00fck montanlarla yap\u0131lan m\u00fcdahelenin d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelen olumsuz beklenti etkilerini dengeledi\u011fi, spek\u00fclatif i\u015ftah\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na ald\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0 ve liradaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 durdurdu\u011fu g\u00f6zleniyor. Bu fena bir skor de\u011fil do\u011frusu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00f6viz kuru bir kere kafalar\u0131 me\u015fgul etmeye ba\u015flay\u0131nca merak s\u00fcr\u00fcp\u00a0 gidiyor. \u015eu s\u0131ralarda g\u00fcndemin ba\u015f k\u00f6\u015fesindeki soru k\u00fcmesi yine d\u00f6viz kuru ile ilgili. Bana soru&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6339","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6339","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6339"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6339\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6339"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6339"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6339"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}