{"id":6284,"date":"2011-10-11T09:12:17","date_gmt":"2011-10-11T06:12:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6284"},"modified":"2011-10-11T09:25:52","modified_gmt":"2011-10-11T06:25:52","slug":"ilk-yarida-net-kamu-borcu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ilk-yarida-net-kamu-borcu\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130lk Yar\u0131da Net Kamu Borcu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Euro b\u00f6lgesi mali krizi engelleyebilecek mi? \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm i\u00e7in siyasi irade gerekti\u011fini her f\u0131rsatta vurguluyorum. Hafta sonu yap\u0131lan Merkel-Sarkozy zirvesinde \u00f6nemli kararlar al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f olabilir. Kapsaml\u0131\u00a0<span><strong>bir<\/strong><\/span>paketin bir ay i\u00e7inde a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2721083911\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Da\u011f bir kez\u00a0<span><strong>daha<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0fare do\u011furur mu? Krizin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6ylemek i\u00e7in erken ama olumlu i\u015faretler var. Fransa ve Almanya\u2019n\u0131n temel baz\u0131 konularda anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 rivayetleri dola\u015f\u0131yor. Piyasada bekle g\u00f6r havas\u0131 h\u00e2kim. \u0130\u00e7eride kur d\u00fcn sakin seyretti.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nlanan a\u011fustos sanayi \u00fcretimi piyasa tahmininin alt\u0131nda geldi. Y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f toplam sanayide y\u00fczde 3,8, imalat sanayiinde y\u00fczde 4,9 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Takvim\u00a0<span><strong>ve<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0mevsim etkisi temizlenince, ayn\u0131 s\u0131ra ile, ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,6 ve y\u00fczde 2,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var.<\/p>\n<p>Temmuzun nispeten y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 Ramazan nedeni\u00a0<span><strong>ile<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0\u00fcretimin \u00f6ne \u00e7ekilmesine atfetmi\u015ftik. A\u011fustos say\u0131lar\u0131 bunu do\u011fruluyor. Yumu\u015fak bir yava\u015flama ile tutarl\u0131d\u0131r. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Net bor\u00e7ta yeni rekor<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 kamu maliyesi ekonomik istikrar\u0131n vazge\u00e7ilmez \u00f6n ko\u015fuludur. T\u00fcrkiye ge\u00e7mi\u015fte sorumsuz maliye politikalar\u0131ndan ve beraberinde gelen olumsuz bor\u00e7 dinamiklerinden \u00e7ok \u00e7ekti. A\u011f\u0131r bedel \u00f6dedi. \u00d6nemli dersler \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Kamu maliyesi k\u00f6kenli sorunlar\u0131n\u00a0<span><strong>Euro<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0b\u00f6lgesini ve hatta d\u00fcnya ekonomisini nas\u0131l h\u0131rpalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. Hele Atina\u2019dan bak\u0131nca, T\u00fcrkiye adeta bir istikrar adas\u0131 gibi duruyor. K\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalmas\u0131nda uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131 maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek (haziran sonu) kamu bor\u00e7 sto\u011funu Hazine yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc net kamu borcunun ilgin\u00e7 bir bilgi ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015ftim. Ama ondan \u00f6nce resmin t\u00fcm\u00fcne k\u0131saca bakmak istiyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3713750520\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6nemli bir geli\u015fme ile ba\u015flayal\u0131m. Net kamu borcu 2004\u2019te 274 milyar TL idi. Sonra azald\u0131, 2007\u2019de 248 milyar TL\u2019ye indi. Krizle birlikte tekrar y\u00fckseldi. 2011\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde 320 milyar TL\u2019ye t\u0131rmand\u0131. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte yeniden indi: 300 milyar TL.<\/p>\n<p>2001, 2007 ve 2011 ikinci \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in net bor\u00e7 kalemlerinin milli gelire oranlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablodad\u0131r. Br\u00fct bor\u00e7 oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 43\u2019le 2007\u2019nin 1 puan \u00fczerindedir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k varl\u0131klar 5 puan art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 18\u2019e geldi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile net bor\u00e7 oran\u0131 2007\u2019ye k\u0131yasla 4 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle y\u00fczde 25\u2019e geriledi. Yak\u0131n tarihin rekorudur.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Net d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 kalmad\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Gelelim ilgin\u00e7 bilgiye. 2007 sonunda kamunun net d\u0131\u015f borcu 11 milyar TL idi. Milli gelirin y\u00fczde 1\u2019i ediyordu. 2009 sonunda 26 milyar TL\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. S\u0131k\u0131 durun. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte 300 milyon TL alaca\u011fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Milli gelirin y\u00fczde 0,2\u2019si ediyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2392862971\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130yi anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Hazine\u2019nin 142 milyar TL d\u0131\u015f borcu var. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k d\u0131\u015f varl\u0131klar\u0131 142.3 milyar TL\u2019ye ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f. B\u00f6ylece Hazine d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyadan 300 milyon TL net alacakl\u0131 hale gelmi\u015f. 180 milyon dolar ediyor. Say\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fckt\u00fcr. Ama tarihi bir ilktir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ktisat politikas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 da \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu durumda TL de\u011fer kaybedince Hazine kur zarar\u0131 yazm\u0131yor, tersine kur k\u00e2r\u0131 yaz\u0131yor. Yani dolar y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e Hazine sermaye kazanc\u0131 elde ediyor. Bence rekabet\u00e7i kur tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na bu a\u00e7\u0131dan da bak\u0131n.<\/p>\n<p><center><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/fotograf.gazetevatan.com\/newpics\/news\/101020112214200916522_3.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Euro b\u00f6lgesi mali krizi engelleyebilecek mi? \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm i\u00e7in siyasi irade gerekti\u011fini her f\u0131rsatta vurguluyorum. Hafta sonu yap\u0131lan Merkel-Sarkozy zirvesinde \u00f6nemli kararlar al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f olabilir. Kapsaml\u0131\u00a0birpaketin bir&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6284","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6284"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6284\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6284"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6284"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6284"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}