{"id":6278,"date":"2011-10-11T09:13:32","date_gmt":"2011-10-11T06:13:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6278"},"modified":"2011-10-11T09:26:02","modified_gmt":"2011-10-11T06:26:02","slug":"surat-her-zaman-kotu-degildir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/surat-her-zaman-kotu-degildir\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u00fcrat Her Zaman K\u00f6t\u00fc De\u011fildir"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fi en sevimsiz durum, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu ko\u015fullar\u0131n aniden tam tersine d\u00f6nmesidir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-916957483\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>A\u011fustosa ait sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi verileri d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bir ay \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla sanayi \u00fcretiminde y\u00fczde 2,6 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var. Temmuzda ise ayn\u0131 oranda art\u0131\u015f vard\u0131 ve bu art\u0131\u015f \u015fubattan bu yana ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen tek art\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re ise ocakta y\u00fczde 19 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretimi. Sonra art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda s\u00fcrekli bir azal\u0131\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131 ve temmuza gelindi\u011finde \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 6,9\u2019a geriledi. A\u011fustostaki y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 3,7 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. K\u0131sacas\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131nda hemen herkesin bekledi\u011fi gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var. Daha fazla rakama gerek yok; nas\u0131l olsa sanayi \u00fcretimindeki son geli\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar ekonomi sayfalar\u0131nda kapsaml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ele al\u0131nacak.<br \/>\nDerdim ba\u015fka; ekonomi politikas\u0131 uygulamas\u0131yla ilgili. Baz\u0131 \u2018ilgin\u00e7\u2019 iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar bir tarafa b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bir ekonominin potansiyelinin alt\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda, iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar, i\u00e7 talebi artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 uygulamalara gidilmesini \u00f6nerirler. Daha y\u00fcksek miktarda kamu harcamalar\u0131, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck vergi oranlar\u0131, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131 gibi. Elbette bu t\u00fcr politikalar\u0131n uygulanabilmesi i\u00e7in o \u00fclkede y\u00fcksek kamu borcu ve y\u00fcksek b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131 da y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde olmamal\u0131. Yoksa ka\u015f yapay\u0131m derken g\u00f6z \u00e7\u0131karmak ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmazla\u015f\u0131r. \u00d6rnek: Yunanistan ekonomisi 4 senedir daral\u0131yor ama kimse de \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131n ve vergi oranlar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131n demiyor. B\u00f6yle bir politikan\u0131n tam bir intihar olaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla maliye politikas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00fclkenin riski y\u00fcksekse bu t\u00fcr politikalar\u0131 uygulamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. B\u00f6yle bir risk yoksa i\u00e7 talebi artt\u0131rmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmamak gerekir. Mesela 2008 sonunda T\u00fcrkiye tam da bu durumdayd\u0131. \u0130\u00e7 talep b\u0131\u00e7ak gibi kesilmi\u015fti ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin riski y\u00fcksek de\u011fildi. Olan riskin de b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi ve kamu borcuyla bir ilgisi yoktu. O s\u0131ralar, bu k\u00f6\u015fede, i\u00e7 talebi artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 politikalar\u0131n ba\u015fka politikalarla desteklenmek ko\u015fuluyla bir an \u00f6nce uygulamaya sokulmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ok say\u0131da yaz\u0131 yer alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. TEPAV\u2019da haz\u0131rlanan ve ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 rakamsal \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlemeler de i\u00e7eren bir dizi raporun sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na dayan\u0131yordu o yaz\u0131lar.<br \/>\nTersi de ge\u00e7erli: Bir ekonomi, potansiyelinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcyorsa \u2018motorun su kaynatmamas\u0131\u2019 i\u00e7in i\u00e7 talebi k\u0131s\u0131c\u0131 baz\u0131 politikalar\u0131 devreye sokmak \u00f6nerilir. Mesela 2010\u2019da T\u00fcrkiye potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Motorun hararetinin tehlikeli noktaya gelmekte oldu\u011funu, y\u00fckselen cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirginle\u015ftirdi. \u00dcstelik y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 her an kesilebilecek k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz giri\u015fleriyle finanse ediliyordu. Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u00f6nceli\u011fi ald\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin arkas\u0131ndaki temel unsurlardan biri olan \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n finansal istikrar\u0131 tehdit etti\u011fi do\u011fru saptamas\u0131yla o h\u0131z\u0131 azaltmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tam tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0130ster ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmay\u0131 isterse de yava\u015flatmay\u0131 ama\u00e7las\u0131n, bu t\u00fcr ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fi en sevimsiz durum, ekonominin i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu ko\u015fullar\u0131n aniden tam tersine d\u00f6nmesidir. \u00c7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in \u00e7ok say\u0131da sorun yaratmaya ba\u015flayan bir ekonomiyi so\u011futmak ister ve bu ama\u00e7la bir dizi \u00f6nlemi pe\u015fi s\u0131ra devreye koyarken bunlar\u0131n etkileri tam ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmadan, de\u011fi\u015fen d\u0131\u015fsal ko\u015fullar nedeniyle ekonominizin potansiyelinin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131nca ne yapars\u0131n\u0131z? Can s\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 bir durum: Daha \u00f6nceki politikalar\u0131n etkileri devam ederken tam tersi y\u00f6nde etkiler yaratacak politikalar\u0131 uygulaman\u0131z gerekir. Ad\u0131 \u00fcst\u00fcnde d\u0131\u015fsal ko\u015fullar bunlar. Kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcz alt\u0131nda de\u011filler. Bu Merkel ve Sarkozy \u00fclkelerini y\u00f6nettikleri s\u00fcrece, o d\u0131\u015fsal ko\u015fullar bir o tarafa bir bu tarafa daha \u00e7ok savrulurlar. \u00d6yleyse&#8230; K\u0131ssadan hisse \u015fu: Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda par\u00e7a ba\u015f\u0131 ve zamana yayarak karar almak olmaz. \u201cBug\u00fcn (Kas\u0131m 2010\u2013Nisan 2011\u2019de) ben (Merkez Bankas\u0131) zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselteyim. BDDK\u2019n\u0131n devreye girmeden o kararlar\u0131n bir i\u015fe yaramayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyenler var ama olsun; bakal\u0131m belki kararlar bir i\u015fe yarar, yaramayacak gibi olursa da BDDK \u2018yar\u0131n\u2019 (Haziran 2011\u2019de) nas\u0131l olsa devreye girer\u201d. Gelin g\u00f6r\u00fcn ki, o d\u0131\u015fsal ko\u015fullar BDDK kararlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131ndan daha bir bu\u00e7uk ay bile ge\u00e7meden bu sefer tamamen tersi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kararlar al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor. Sonu\u00e7: Bazen s\u00fcrat iyi bir \u015feydir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fi en sevimsiz durum, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu ko\u015fullar\u0131n aniden tam tersine d\u00f6nmesidir. A\u011fustosa ait sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi verileri d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bir ay \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6278","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6278","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6278"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6278\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6278"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6278"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6278"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}