{"id":6213,"date":"2011-10-09T09:02:01","date_gmt":"2011-10-09T06:02:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6213"},"modified":"2011-10-10T09:59:37","modified_gmt":"2011-10-10T06:59:37","slug":"mujde-ab-kurtuldu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/mujde-ab-kurtuldu\/","title":{"rendered":"M\u00fcjde, AB Kurtuldu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>M\u00fcjdemi isterim, ilk benden duydunuz. Sene sonuna kalmadan AB\u2019nin \u00e7ok bor\u00e7lu \u00fclkeler (PIIGS) ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k krizi sona erecek. Bayan Merkel Dexia\u2019n\u0131n \u201c\u00e7atlamas\u0131ndan\u201d sonra ikna oldu, ya t\u00fcm Euro-\u00fcyeleri ile birlikte, e\u011fer olmazsa tek ba\u015f\u0131na AB ve Euro\u2019yu kurtaracak. E\u011fer yan\u0131l\u0131yorsam da, \u00f6nce AB, sonra k\u00fcresel finans sistemi Okyanus\u2019un derin sular\u0131na g\u00f6m\u00fclecek.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2059799308\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6nce \u015funu s\u00f6yleyeyim. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc faizleri indirmeyerek K\u0131ta\u2019da resesyonun alt\u0131na imzas\u0131n\u0131 att\u0131. Art\u0131k \u0130kinci Dip\u2019ten ka\u00e7\u0131nmak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok ge\u00e7. Ama, bu yanl\u0131\u015f karar\u0131n yan\u0131nda d\u00fcnya bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemini bir ka\u00e7 ay daha hayatta tutacak kararlar\u0131n son halkas\u0131n\u0131 da tamamlad\u0131. Bankalar\u0131n iki t\u00fcrl\u00fc sorunu var, birincisi sermaye yetersizli\u011fi, ikincisi ise likidite eksikli\u011fi. Son y\u00fczy\u0131lda ekonomist ve finans\u00e7\u0131lar hep bunlar\u0131n aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Ekonomistler asla g\u00fczel k\u0131zlardan randevu alamayacaklar\u0131 i\u00e7in, finans\u00e7\u0131lar da t\u00fcm gece Victoria\u2019s Secret modelleri ile alem yap\u0131p ak\u015famdan kalma olduklar\u0131 i\u00e7in, her bankac\u0131k \u00e7alkant\u0131s\u0131nda \u201cEfendim bunu ard\u0131nda likidite darl\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. Yok, mirim, vallahi sermaye yetersizli\u011fidir\u201d dala\u015f\u0131 hi\u00e7 bitmez. Ger\u00e7ek hayatta likidite darl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sermaye yetersizli\u011fine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr halbuki.<\/p>\n<p>Hemen bir \u00f6rnekle a\u00e7\u0131klayay\u0131m. Bankan\u0131n elinde yeterince nakit veya nakte d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir varl\u0131k kalmam\u0131\u015f. Ama, pasiflerin vadesi geliyor. Yani, ya mevduat ka\u00e7\u0131yor \u015fubelerden, ya da ba\u015fka bankalardan bor\u00e7 alam\u0131yor, sendikasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yenileyemiyor. Ne yapacak? Elinde likit olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 hara\u00e7-mezat satacak. E\u011fer 95 TL\u2019den ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvili 90 TL\u2019den satmak zorunda kal\u0131rsan\u0131z, likidite s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 an\u0131nda 5 TL zarara, yani bir s\u00fcre sonra sermaye eksikli\u011fine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr. Halbuki, likit olsan\u0131z, bu tahvili vadeye kadar bilan\u00e7oda ta\u015f\u0131r, TL100 al\u0131r, kar yazars\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa bankalar\u0131n\u0131n elinde y\u00fckl\u00fc miktarda Yunan ve di\u011fer PIIGS \u00fclkelerinin tahvillerinden (D\u0130BS) var. Bu \u00fclkeler iflasa gider diye ba\u015fka bankalardan bor\u00e7 alam\u0131yor, bono ve tahvil ihra\u00e7 edemiyor. E\u011fer bu durum bir ka\u00e7 ay daha devam ederse, zoraki de olsa 95 Euro\u2019dan ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130talyan ve \u0130spanyol tahvillerini 90 Euro\u2019dan satmaya ba\u015flay\u0131p batacaklar. \u0130\u015fte AMB isteyen bankaya teminat kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 13 aya kadar sonsuz repo yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayarak, bu iki sorunun birbirine olumsuz etki yapmas\u0131n\u0131 engelldi. Art\u0131k pasif taraf\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan bankalar, PIIGS D\u0130BS satmak yerine, AMB\u2019na repoya verecek. E\u011fer Fed\u2019in de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir alicenapl\u0131kla AMB vas\u0131tas\u0131 ile swap yaparak Avrupa bankalar\u0131na dolar likiditesi sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlarsak, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminin ge\u00e7ici olarak g\u00fcvenceye alnd\u0131\u011f\u0131 rahatl\u0131kla g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Ama, bunlar ge\u00e7ici \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler, AB i\u00e7in kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn NE oldu\u011funu herkes biliyor, benim icad\u0131m de\u011fil. 3 ayakl\u0131 bir operasyonu E\u015eZAMANLI olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftireceksiniz:<\/p>\n<p>Birinci Ayak: Yunaistan\u2019\u0131n fi\u015fi \u00e7ekilecek\u2014yani iflasa zorlanacak.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci Ayak: Avrupa bankalar\u0131na kamu eliyle veya piyasalardan sermaye eklenerek Yunan D\u0130BS\u2019den yazacaklar\u0131 zarar\u0131n sermayeyi t\u00fcketmesi engellenecek.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc Ayak: Yunanistan iflas etti\u011finde derhal \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya ba\u015fta bir \u00e7ok \u00fclkenin D\u0130BS\u2019ne sat\u0131\u015f gelece\u011fi i\u00e7in bankalar\u0131n yeniden s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131ya girmememesi i\u00e7in EFSF veya ba\u015fka kurumlar ikincil piyasadan bu D\u0130BS\u2019leri alacak, fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutacak.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2619537501\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc Aya\u011f\u0131 biraz daha a\u00e7ay\u0131m, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc okurlar\u0131m aras\u0131nda benim gibi son 20 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminde olu\u015facak her t\u00fcrl\u00fc ar\u0131zay\u0131 Polonyal\u0131 musluk tamircisi itinas\u0131 ile yakinen tetkik etmemi\u015f olanlar olabilir. Yunanistan iflas\u0131 ard\u0131ndan di\u011fer \u00e7ok bor\u00e7lu \u00fclkeler de iflas eder diye bir panik do\u011far. Bu pani\u011fin Portekiz ve \u0130rlanda i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nemi yok, onlar zaten piyasadan bor\u00e7lanm\u0131yor. AMA, panik %100 \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya\u2019ya s\u0131\u00e7rar. E\u011fer bu iki \u00fclkenin 2 trilyon Euro\u2019yu a\u015fan D\u0130BS\u2019nin fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flarsa, bankalara ne kadar sermaye koysan\u0131z yetmez. Yine likidite darl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fg\u00f6sterir. Zarar\u0131na \u0130talyan-\u0130spanyol D\u0130BS\u2019i satarlar ve fasit dairede birinci kareye d\u00f6neriz. (\u0130\u015fte literat\u00fcr tarihine ge\u00e7ecek bir c\u00fcmle daha).<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, Yunanistan musalla ta\u015f\u0131na yat\u0131l\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda mali husyeleri baya\u011f\u0131 kallavi bir kurum veya kurumlar\u0131n devreye girerek \u015fortcu trader tayfas\u0131na \u201cGel yavrum, sat da seni oyay\u0131m\u201d diyebilmesi laz\u0131m. E\u011fer PIIGS D\u0130BS\u2019\u00een de\u011ferinin d\u00fc\u015fmeyece\u011fine ve likit ikincil pazar\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 ikna edebilirseniz, bankalar\u0131n fonlama sorunu da \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Peki, bu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc benim gibi 35 y\u0131ll\u0131k keyif verici madde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcz\u00fcnden sadece 3 tane gri beyin h\u00fccresi kalm\u0131\u015f bir fani bile \u00e7ak\u0131yorsa, AB niye uygulayam\u0131yor? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, maliyetli bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm. \u00d6nce, Avrupa bankalar\u0131na 200-300 milyar Euro civar\u0131nda sermaye ENJEKS\u0130YONU \u015fart. ENJEKS\u0130YON..bay\u0131l\u0131yorum bu lafa. Bu enjeksiyon tamamland\u0131ktan sonra, EFSF\u2019nin de halen 450 milyar Euro olan kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 laz\u0131m, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc demin izah etti\u011fim gibi, EFSF\u2019nin husyeleri traderler\u0131 korkutacak c\u00fcssede de\u011fil. EFSF\u2019nin sermayesinin bir kez daha art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u015fart de\u011fil. Ya AMB ikincil piyasadan daha aktif tahvil alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilan eder, ya IMF \u00f6zel bir fon kurarak al\u0131mlara destek verir, ya da bir \u015fekilde EFSF\u2019nin bor\u00e7 almas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayarak husyelere steroid ENJEKS\u0130YONU yapabilirsiniz. Bir maliyet daha var. Yunanistan iflas ettirilicek ama Euro\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131kmayacak. Borcu %50 kadar tenzil edilecek, sonra \u00fclkenin hayata d\u00f6nmesi i\u00e7in biraz daha taze krediye ihtiyac\u0131 var.<\/p>\n<p>Bu maliyet \u00f6zellikle Fransa gibi AAA notu her an d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclebilecek Euro \u00fcyelerini \u00e7ok korkutuyor. Sarkozy 7 ay sonra cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imine girecek. E\u011fer Fransa bu s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda AA\u2019ya indirilirse, Carla onu yataktan kovar. Bu y\u00fczden Sarko yar\u0131n (Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc) Merkel\u2019le yapac\u011f\u0131 zirvede oyunca\u011f\u0131 elinden al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f \u015f\u0131mar\u0131k bir Frans\u0131z c\u00fccesi gibi a\u011flayacak. Ama, Kuzey\u2019in Harbi Hatunu Merkel vazge\u00e7meyecek, Sarko\u2019yu kuca\u011f\u0131na yat\u0131racak ve d\u00f6ve d\u00f6ve ikna edecek. Hi\u00e7 bir Frans\u0131z erke\u011fi kararl\u0131 bir kad\u0131na 3 dakikadan fazla dayanamaz. Bu arada akl\u0131ma bir Frans\u0131z f\u0131kras\u0131 geldi, anlatamdan edemeyece\u011fim: \u0130ki eli havada y\u00fcy\u00fcnen 2 milyon Frans\u0131z gencine ne denir? Frans\u0131z ordusu\u2026.. \u00d6nce AB\u2019yi, ard\u0131ndan Euro\u2019yu ve t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyay\u0131 kurtaracak plan ya 17 Ekim gecesi AB liderler zirvesi \u00f6ncesi, ya da 2-4 Kas\u0131m aras\u0131 G-20 Zirvesi \u00f6ncesi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3291219583\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Nas\u0131l bu kadar emin olabiliyorum? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Merkel hesab\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. Ya kol keser yukarda tarif etti\u011fim maliyeti \u015e\u0130MD\u0130 \u00f6der. Ya da 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda o se\u00e7ime giderken Euro da\u011f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, Avrupa ekonomisi de \u00e7\u00f6km\u00fc\u015f olur. Cuma ak\u015fam\u0131 Fitch\u2019in \u0130talya ve \u0130spaya\u2019n\u0131n notunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi, Dexia\u2019n\u0131n resmen olmasa da fiilen batmas\u0131. Moody\u2019s in Portekiz ve \u0130ngiliz bankalar\u0131n\u0131n notunu kesmesi. T\u00fcm bunlar Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n bu PIIGS-bankac\u0131l\u0131k belirsizli\u011fini daha fazla kald\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, e\u011fer ortak karar al\u0131n\u0131p bir an \u00f6nce gereken yap\u0131lmazsa, hastan\u0131n seneyi \u00e7\u0131kartamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi. Diyeceksiniz ki, AB \u015fimdi karar alsa parlamentolardan onaylama filan bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015far. Do\u011frudur, ama yukardaki plan\u0131n yeni onaya ihtiyac\u0131 yok, hatta 17 Euro \u00fcyesi aras\u0131nda fikir birli\u011fine de ihtiyac\u0131 yok. Merkel Yenge bir hafta i\u00e7inde di\u011ferlerini ikna edemezse, tek tarafl\u0131 olarak Alman bankalar\u0131na damardan \u00f6zkaynak ENJEKS\u0130YONU\u2019na ba\u015flar. O zaman da herkes Deutsche, Kommerzbank ve Landesbanken Geberingen\u2019le i\u015f yapar, SOB Baribas, Credit Annenicole ve FORDIS\u2019le yapmaz.<\/p>\n<p>Ve F\u00d6\u015e (Fevkalade \u00d6zel \u015eah\u0131s) \u00a0Atilla, \u00a0finans tarihinde devrim yaratan makalelerine bir tanesini daha ekledi. \u0130LK BENDEN DUYDUNUZ:<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7in para birimi yuan\u2019\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na izin verecek<\/p>\n<p>Alt\u0131n 2.500 dolar\/ons olacak<\/p>\n<p>Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n defni ba\u015flad\u0131<\/p>\n<p>Uzayl\u0131lar\u0131n rektoskopide kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 mucize kayganla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 \u015fimdi TL49 + KDV.<\/p>\n<p>Te\u015fekk\u00fcr, etmeyin, ahretimi kazanmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0Atilla Ye\u015filada,<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>ayesilada@gmail.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>M\u00fcjdemi isterim, ilk benden duydunuz. Sene sonuna kalmadan AB\u2019nin \u00e7ok bor\u00e7lu \u00fclkeler (PIIGS) ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k krizi sona erecek. Bayan Merkel Dexia\u2019n\u0131n \u201c\u00e7atlamas\u0131ndan\u201d sonra ikna oldu,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6213","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6213","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6213"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6213\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6213"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6213"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6213"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}