{"id":6149,"date":"2011-10-07T09:05:18","date_gmt":"2011-10-07T06:05:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6149"},"modified":"2011-10-07T09:33:31","modified_gmt":"2011-10-07T06:33:31","slug":"doviz-kuru-hareketinin-analitigi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/doviz-kuru-hareketinin-analitigi\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00f6viz Kuru Hareketinin Analiti\u011fi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00f6viz kuru epeydir hareketli,. Uzun zamandan beri hareket y\u00f6n\u00fc de yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru. Son bir ka\u00e7 g\u00fcnde d\u00f6viz kurunun yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketinin h\u0131z kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zlendi. Ortal\u0131k birbirine girdi. Adetten oldu\u011fu gibi, bir anda her kafadan bir ses \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2490704527\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Kur meselesinin en can al\u0131c\u0131 noktas\u0131 g\u00f6zlenen harekete kar\u015f\u0131 nas\u0131l bir politika izlenmesi gerekti\u011fi sorusu. Konuyu\u00a0 soyut planda tart\u0131\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Benim meslek erbab\u0131m\u00a0 bunu fazlas\u0131yla yap\u0131yor. Somut, g\u00fcncel geli\u015fmeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli olan sorunu \u00f6zel ve somut bir zemin \u00fczerinden tart\u0131\u015fmak. Bu do\u011frultuda at\u0131lacak ilk ad\u0131m d\u00f6viz kurunda g\u00f6zlenen hareketin nedeninin belirlenmesidir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7ok tekrarlanan, adeta kli\u015fe haline gelmi\u015f bir ifade ile d\u00f6viz kurunundaki hareketin nedeninin d\u00f6viz arz ve talebindeki de\u011fi\u015fmeler oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Basit bir iktisat bilgisi dahi arz ya da talep tek ba\u015flar\u0131na veya birlikte de\u011fi\u015fti\u011finde fiyat\u0131n (d\u00f6viz kurunun) de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fini s\u00f6yler.\u00a0 Esas \u00f6nemli olan\u00a0 d\u00f6viz arz ya da talebinin neden de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi sorusunu\u00a0 do\u011fru yan\u0131tlamakt\u0131r.\u00a0 D\u00f6viz kuru hareketi ba\u011flam\u0131nda bu sorunun yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 da ulusal ve\/veya\u00a0 uluslararas\u0131 nedenlerde aramak do\u011fru olur. Meseleye b\u00f6yle bak\u0131nca d\u00f6viz kurunun i\u00e7 ya da d\u0131\u015f nedenlerden etkilenerek hareket etti\u011fini s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncenin bir ad\u0131m sonras\u0131 kuru etkilyecek\u00a0 i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f nedenlerin ne olabilece\u011fini irdelemektir. D\u00f6viz kurunu hareket ettirecek i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f nedenlerin her ikisi de benzer iki kaynaktan \u00fcrer. Bunlardan birisi\u00a0 spek\u00fclatif g\u00fcd\u00fcler \u00f6teki de ekonomik dengesizliklerdir.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7eride ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131da spek\u00fclatif g\u00fcd\u00fclerin belli bir y\u00f6ne do\u011fru devinmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 ulusal ekonomide d\u00f6viz arz ve talebini etkileyerek d\u00f6viz fiyat\u0131n\u0131 (kur) de\u011fi\u015fmeye zorlayabilir. D\u00f6viz kuru hareketin arkas\u0131ndaki nedenlerden birisi bu t\u00fcr spek\u00fclatif geli\u015fmeler olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7eride ya da d\u0131\u015far\u0131da (\u00e7o\u011fu zaman her ikisinde) makroekonomik dengelerde meydana gelebilecek bir bozulma veya bozuk olan dengeyi d\u00fczeltme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde geli\u015fecek bir dinamik ulusal d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda arz ve talep b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini etkileyerek d\u00f6viz kurunu de\u011fi\u015fmeye zorlayabilir. G\u00f6zlenen kur hareketlerinin bir nedeni de bu olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1140732088\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eimdi kendi meselemizi bu kaba analitik \u00e7er\u00e7eve i\u00e7ine yerle\u015ftirebiliriz. \u015eu iki soruya cevap arayaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Ulusal ya da uluslararas\u0131 spek\u00fclasyon ortam\u0131nda T\u00fcrk liras\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 (d\u00f6viz kurundaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi) a\u00e7\u0131klayacak y\u00f6nde ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir de\u011fi\u015fme oldu mu? Bu bir.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde veya k\u00fcresel planda makroekonomik dengelerde T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kaybetmesini (d\u00f6viz kurunun y\u00fckselmesini) a\u00e7\u0131klayacak y\u00f6n ve dozda bir de\u011fi\u015fme oldu mu? Bu da iki.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin i\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerinden kaynaklanan ve d\u00f6viz talebini y\u00fckseltecek ya da d\u00f6viz arz\u0131n\u0131 geriletecek (b\u00f6ylece d\u00f6viz kurunu h\u0131zla yukar\u0131ya itecek)\u00a0 y\u00f6n ve dozda bir spek\u00fclasyonist dalga do\u011fdu\u011funu savunman\u0131n zor olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2947181410\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k d\u0131\u015far\u0131da, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;deki d\u00f6viz arz ve talebini etkileyebilecek boyutta\u00a0 bir spek\u00fclatif hareketin geli\u015fti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde olu\u015fan yeni kriz beklentisi ve\u00a0 Avrupa Birli\u011finde kriz ortam\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcr\u00fcyor olmas\u0131n\u0131n, uluslararas\u0131 planda risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirip, y\u00fckselen piyasalardan fon ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ulusal paralar\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131na ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu hareket nedeniyle bizim de b\u00f6yle bir bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m. Bu bask\u0131 d\u00f6viz arz ve talebini iki y\u00f6nden etkiliyor. Olu\u015fan yeni spek\u00fclasyon ortam\u0131 ekonomiye sermaye giri\u015fini k\u0131s\u0131tlayarak d\u00f6viz arz\u0131n\u0131 daralt\u0131yor ve d\u00f6viz kurunu yukar\u0131ya itiyor. Ayn\u0131 ortam sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 da besliyor, d\u00f6viz talebini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor ve d\u00f6viz kurunu yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu bir.\u00a0 K\u00fcresel kriz beklentisi i\u00e7eride de liradan ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve d\u00f6vize y\u00f6nelmeyi \u00f6zendirerek ilave bir d\u00f6viz talebi yarat\u0131yor. Bunun etkisi de kuru y\u00fckseltmek y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu da iki.<\/p>\n<p>D\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 spek\u00fclatif ortam\u0131n d\u00f6viz kuru \u00fczerinde bu\u00a0 kadar etkili olmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir nedeni de denge bozuklu\u011fu ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Ulusal ekonomide d\u0131\u015f dengenin bozuk, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n fazlas\u0131yla y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaretten kaynaklanan d\u00f6viz talebinin (ithalat) ayn\u0131 nitelikli d\u00f6viz arz\u0131n\u0131n (ihracat) \u00fcst\u00fcnde oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ve benzeri tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n esas \u00f6nemi gerekli politika tasar\u0131m\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flamak ku\u015fkusuz. \u0130\u015fin bu y\u00f6n\u00fcne de bakaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Taner BERKSOY<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00f6viz kuru epeydir hareketli,. Uzun zamandan beri hareket y\u00f6n\u00fc de yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru. Son bir ka\u00e7 g\u00fcnde d\u00f6viz kurunun yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketinin h\u0131z kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zlendi. Ortal\u0131k&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6149","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6149"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6149\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6149"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6149"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6149"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}