{"id":6138,"date":"2011-10-07T09:02:37","date_gmt":"2011-10-07T06:02:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6138"},"modified":"2011-10-07T09:26:51","modified_gmt":"2011-10-07T06:26:51","slug":"mb-kontrollu-belirsizlikten-surekli-belirsizlige","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/mb-kontrollu-belirsizlikten-surekli-belirsizlige\/","title":{"rendered":"MB: Kontroll\u00fc Belirsizlikten, S\u00fcrekli Belirsizli\u011fe&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131 1.90\u2019\u0131 ge\u00e7ince artan rahats\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlarla belli etti! \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc MB; 1,350 milyon dolar ile beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde bir d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f ihalesi a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Kurlar 1,8950\u2019den 1,8650\u2019ye indi!<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3122525311\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yabanc\u0131 parada zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 3 y\u0131la kadar olan vadelerde y\u00fczde 0.5 daha uzun vadelerde ise y\u00fczde 3.5 indirdi. Bu hamle\u00a0ile\u00a0piyasaya yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3 milyar dolar likidite \u201cb\u0131rak\u0131lacakm\u0131\u015f\u201d oldu.<\/p>\n<p>TL zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n yabanc\u0131\u00a0para\u00a0olarak tutulabilecek k\u0131sm\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r y\u00fczde 10\u2019dan y\u00fczde 20\u2019ye y\u00fckseltildi. \u00dcst s\u0131n\u0131ra kadar bankalar d\u00f6viz olarak zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 tutacak olurlarsa (!) MB\u2019na 3.6 milyar dolarl\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k tesis edilecekmi\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Bir\u00a0\u00fclkenin MB \u201cihra\u00e7c\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011fu\u201d ve kendi itibar\u0131 olan para birimi i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131, neden di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin ihra\u00e7 etti\u011fi paralardan kabul eder? Anlamak biraz zor. D\u00f6viz arz\u0131n\u0131n bol oldu\u011fu zamanlarda olsayd\u0131k neyse&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Bu\u00a0noktada \u0130kinci \u00f6nlem akla geliyor. D\u00f6viz likiditesinde sorun var ki MB, DTH kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 indirdi. Uzun vadenin desteklenmesi ad\u0131na olumlu bir karar. K\u0131sa vadelilerdeki indirim piyasadaki d\u00f6viz likiditesinin artt\u0131rmas\u0131 ve kurlar \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131labilme \u00e7abalar\u0131 ad\u0131na olumlu. Ancak bu karar ile TL kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n d\u00f6viz ile \u00f6denmesi birbiriyle \u00e7eli\u015fen kararlar. En az\u0131ndan bug\u00fcnk\u00fc konjonkt\u00fcrde&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim miktar ve sat\u0131\u015f meselesine. MB 5 A\u011fustos\u2019ta ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f ihalelerinde d\u00fcnk\u00fc ile birlikte 4,3 milyar dolara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fik zamanlarda \u201cde\u011fi\u015fik miktarlarda\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klanan ihalelerle yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130lk sorun burada bence. MB\u2019n\u0131n ihale miktar \u201crejimi\u201d a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz sever nitelikte. Bir g\u00fcn 350, ard\u0131ndan 0, sonraki g\u00fcn 70, ard\u0131ndan 210, 50 ve \u015fimdide ard arda iki g\u00fcn 1,350&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Do\u011frudur, MB\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n att\u0131klar\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n piyasalarda s\u00fcrpriz etkisi yaratmalar\u0131 \u00f6nemli. Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kafalar\u0131n\u0131 hayli kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran bir durum bu! Kas\u0131m 2010\u2019da \u201cekonomiyi so\u011futup, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltma\u201d stratejisi do\u011frultusunda \u201ckontroll\u00fc gerginlik\u201d politikalar\u0131 uygulamaya konuldu. \u00d6nce faizde belirsizlik yarat\u0131ld\u0131. \u015eimdi s\u0131ra kurda!<\/p>\n<p>Son iki g\u00fcndeki ihaleler \u00f6ncesinde piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 y\u00fcksek miktarlarda talep g\u00f6nderdiler MB\u2019na. \u0130hale miktarlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131nca piyasaya d\u00f6viz satan bankalar, bunlar\u0131 MB\u2019ndan ucuza kapat\u0131p k\u00e2r etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131lar. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,832 milyon talep gelirken sat\u0131\u015f 750, d\u00fcnk\u00fc ihaleye ise 2,08 milyon talep gelirken sat\u0131\u015f 350 milyon ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. \u00dcstelik d\u00fcnk\u00fc ihaledeki talebin ortalama kuru 1.8302 iken sat\u0131\u015f kuru 1,8348 oldu!<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3287869959\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>MB \u00e7ok da fazla d\u00f6viz satmadan, bankalar\u0131n kendi \u00fczerinden arbitraj yap\u0131p para kazanmas\u0131na izin vermeden, kurlar\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131na almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Kendi i\u00e7inde tutarl\u0131. Ancak madalyonun bir de \u00f6b\u00fcr taraf\u0131 var: MB\u2019n\u0131n; her ne kadar mazereti volatiliteyi azaltmak olsa da; piyasan\u0131n yeg\u00e2ne \u201cd\u00f6viz tedarik\u00e7isi\u201d durumuna ge\u00e7mesi ve bunu yaparken de belirsizli\u011fi \u201cpompalamas\u0131\u201d ilerisi i\u00e7in hi\u00e7 de iyi bir haber de\u011fil!<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn\u00fcn bir ba\u015fka s\u00fcrprizi; a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ortalama y\u00fck\u00fc y\u00fczde 13,1 olan TL zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n 12,5\u2019e indirilmesiyle piyasaya 3,2 milyar TL likidite verildi. \u0130lk bak\u0131\u015fta bir yandan d\u00f6vize \u201cm\u00fcdahale edilirken\u201dgidebilecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bu likiditenin d\u00f6vize gitmesi zor. Zira 60 milyara yak\u0131n MB\u2019dan bor\u00e7lanan bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminin, MB\u2019n\u0131n \u201cpatikas\u0131ndan\u201d \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 hayli zor.<\/p>\n<p>Evet, ipler MB\u2019n\u0131n elinde. Ancak MB\u2019n\u0131n bu kadar \u00e7ok piyasan\u0131n i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131 ve s\u00fcrekli yeni s\u00fcrprizlerle piyasalar\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 gerginli\u011fi ve belirsizli\u011fi artt\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dcstelik de bu belirsizlik s\u00fcrekli hale geliyor!<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1220265798\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Ali A\u011eAO\u011eLU<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131 1.90\u2019\u0131 ge\u00e7ince artan rahats\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlarla belli etti! \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc MB; 1,350 milyon dolar ile beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde bir d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6138","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6138","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6138"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6138\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6138"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6138"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6138"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}