{"id":6107,"date":"2011-10-06T13:35:32","date_gmt":"2011-10-06T10:35:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6107"},"modified":"2011-10-06T13:35:42","modified_gmt":"2011-10-06T10:35:42","slug":"yine-ne-olacak-bu-dolarin-hali-sohbeti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yine-ne-olacak-bu-dolarin-hali-sohbeti\/","title":{"rendered":"Yine &#8216;Ne olacak bu dolar\u0131n hali&#8217; Sohbeti"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00f6nd\u00fck, dola\u015ft\u0131k. Yine ayn\u0131 konuya geldik. Ne olacak bu dolar\u0131n hali diye sormaya ba\u015flad\u0131k.<br \/>\nYan\u0131tlarda bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yok. Ancak \u00f6nlemler konusunda bu kez ba\u015fka bir ortam var.<br \/>\nDolay\u0131s\u0131yla da TL&#8217;nin di\u011fer paralara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer yitirmesinin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7inde gidiyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1589794961\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>NEDENLER<\/strong><br \/>\nTL&#8217;nin de\u011fer yitirmesindeki etkenler bildik konular.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Uygulanan d\u00f6viz kuru rejimi tam dalgal\u0131 olmasa bile arz ve talep \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. D\u00f6viz talebi, arz\u0131ndan az olunca TL de\u011fer kaybediyor.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma gereksinimi ayl\u0131k bazda 5 ile 8 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda devam ediyor. D\u00f6viz talebi de buradan kaynaklan\u0131yor.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Avrupa k\u00f6kenli kaotik durumda iyile\u015fme yok. Tam tersine beklentiler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6ne.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Geli\u015fen piyasalara kar\u015f\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131 azalm\u0131\u015f durumda.<br \/>\nBu t\u00fcr geli\u015fmelerle T\u00fcrkiye defalarca kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131. Ancak bu kez Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n politikalar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde bu olaylar\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131yoruz.<br \/>\nMerkez Bankas\u0131 faizleri h\u00fck\u00fcmetin arzusu \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, \u015fimdi de y\u00fckseltemedi\u011fi ve b\u00f6ylesi durumlarda etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olan zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar \u00fczerine politika in\u015fa etti\u011fi i\u00e7in iki geli\u015fme TL&#8217;nin de\u011fer yitirmesini \u00f6nleyemiyor.<br \/>\nBunlar, k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz likiditesi yaratan s\u0131cak paran\u0131n yeterince gelmemesi ve yurti\u00e7inde yerle\u015fiklerin d\u00f6viz tevdiat hesaplar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki gibi bozdurmamalar\u0131.<br \/>\nHer iki e\u011filimin kayna\u011f\u0131 ise TL faiz d\u00fczeyinin bu para ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmedeki etkisizli\u011fi.<br \/>\nDurum b\u00f6yle olunca ve TL de her g\u00fcn de\u011fer kaybedince bu kez bekleyi\u015fler uyar\u0131l\u0131yor. S\u00fcrecin devam edece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceler piyasalara h\u00e2kim olmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<br \/>\nBu fakt\u00f6rlere bankalar\u0131n bilan\u00e7o alt\u0131 swap i\u015flemleri yoluyla a\u00e7t\u0131klar\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131 kapatmalar\u0131 ve spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin TL&#8217;nin daha da de\u011fer yitirece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almalar\u0131 da eklenince TL&#8217;nin sepete, dolara ve Euro&#8217;ya kar\u015f\u0131 dayanma g\u00fcc\u00fc kalm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>D\u00d6V\u0130Z M\u00dcDAHALELER\u0130<\/strong><br \/>\nGenel kural, d\u00f6viz kurunu etkileyen temel nedenler ortadan kalkmad\u0131k\u00e7a merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6vize m\u00fcdahalelerinin, ge\u00e7ici bir olumlu etki sonras\u0131 ters etki yapaca\u011f\u0131 \u015feklindedir. Bu kural\u0131n k\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 da de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini sanm\u0131yorum.<br \/>\nHele bu m\u00fcdahaleler &#8220;kirli&#8221;, belirsiz ve d\u00fczensiz yap\u0131l\u0131rsa ters etki daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenir. 2001 krizi s\u0131ras\u0131nda 26 milyar dolar d\u00f6vizi olan Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n, d\u00f6viz taleplerini kar\u015f\u0131layacak d\u00fczeydeyken kamu finansman a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle TL&#8217;nin de\u011fer yitirmesine m\u00e2ni olamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlayal\u0131m. Bu iki konu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlendikten sonra d\u00f6viz rezervleri anlaml\u0131 hale geldi.<br \/>\n\u015eimdi ise,<br \/>\n\u25a0 Ayl\u0131k 5 ile 8 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda d\u00f6viz gereksinimi azalt\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131,<br \/>\n\u25a0 D\u00fcnya konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi,<br \/>\n\u25a0 T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye kar\u015f\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve<br \/>\n\u25a0 Arap dostlardan y\u00fckl\u00fc bir para gelmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece TL&#8217;nin de\u011fer yitirmesini durdurman\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<br \/>\nFaizin i\u015flev g\u00f6rmedi\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde b\u00f6yle bir sonucu da do\u011fal kar\u015f\u0131lamak gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00f6nd\u00fck, dola\u015ft\u0131k. Yine ayn\u0131 konuya geldik. Ne olacak bu dolar\u0131n hali diye sormaya ba\u015flad\u0131k. Yan\u0131tlarda bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yok. Ancak \u00f6nlemler konusunda bu kez ba\u015fka bir&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":418,"featured_media":5395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6107","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/418"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6107"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6107\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6107"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6107"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6107"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}