{"id":6096,"date":"2011-10-06T09:58:04","date_gmt":"2011-10-06T06:58:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6096"},"modified":"2011-10-06T10:07:36","modified_gmt":"2011-10-06T07:07:36","slug":"avrupa%e2%80%99daki-son-durum-imkb-ve-dolartl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/avrupa%e2%80%99daki-son-durum-imkb-ve-dolartl\/","title":{"rendered":"Avrupa\u2019daki son durum, \u0130MKB ve Dolar\/TL"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\" align=\"center\"><strong><span style=\"color: #800000\">Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerimi Twitter \u00fczerinden payla\u015faca\u011f\u0131m, takip etmek isteyenler i\u00e7in adresim:<\/span> <span style=\"color: #3366ff\">@uzeyir_dogan<\/span><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4262840801\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: center\" align=\"center\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000\"><strong>Avrupa\u2019daki son durum, \u0130MKB ve Dolar\/TL<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Avrupa\u2019da bankalar\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lara \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulunaca\u011f\u0131 beklentileri borsalar\u0131 ipten ald\u0131. D\u00fcn Alman DAX endeksi %5\u2019e yak\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f yaparken, b\u00f6lgenin di\u011fer borsalar\u0131nda da benzer \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar vard\u0131. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm umutlar\u0131 Euro\/Dolar paritesine de destek verdi ve 1,3150 civar\u0131na kadar gerileyen parite, gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla 1,3350\u2019nin \u00fczerini test etti. Gelelim bu iyimser havay\u0131 olu\u015fturan a\u00e7\u0131klamalara: Almanya Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Merkel, bankalara ihtiya\u00e7 duyulmas\u0131 halinde sermaye enjekte edilebilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bunun i\u00e7in de \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ek bir stres testi uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 ve ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan sermaye a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nce sermaye art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yoluyla, yetersiz kal\u0131nmas\u0131 durumunda devlet deste\u011fi ve son olarak da EFSF deste\u011fiyle kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nerdi. Merkel\u2019in bu \u00f6nerisi uygulamaya konulacak olursa, olu\u015fturulacak senaryoda Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n iflas\u0131 da yer alaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, bankalar\u0131 iflasa g\u00f6t\u00fcren g\u00fcven sorunu a\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r. Bu beklenti Avrupa borsalar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin temel sebebi. Plan\u0131n g\u00fczel g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesine kar\u015f\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7irilmesi konusunda ciddi endi\u015felerimiz var. Avrupal\u0131 liderlerin \u015fuana kadar istikrarl\u0131 \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fckleri basiretsiz ve korkak tav\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 devam ettirmeleri b\u00f6yle bir plan\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede uygulamaya ge\u00e7me olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle Bayan Merkel\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 pozitif bulmakla birlikte, ciddi bir ralli beklentisi i\u00e7in AB\u2019nin di\u011fer liderlerinin tavr\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6rmek gerekecektir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Bug\u00fcn Avrupa i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli g\u00fcnlerden biri. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (AMB) faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz aydan itibaren AMB\u2019nin yapaca\u011f\u0131 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirimin piyasalarda ciddi bir toparlanma s\u00fcreci ba\u015flatabilece\u011finden bahsediyorduk. AMB\u2019nin bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekecek ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyecek bu y\u00f6nde bir ad\u0131m atmak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorduk, fakat ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon verileri bu beklentilerimizi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. Bu nedenle AMB bug\u00fcn faiz indirimi yapmasa da s\u00fcrpriz olarak alg\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131z. Fakat indirim gelmemesi piyasalarda moral bozuklu\u011fu yaratabilir buna da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u0130MKB\u2019ye gelince \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnlerde pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla dikkat \u00e7eken \u0130MKB son iki g\u00fcnde bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc kaybetti. \u00d6nceki g\u00fcn yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalarla birlikte gerileyen \u0130MKB d\u00fcn de Avrupa\u2019daki y\u00fckseli\u015flere kay\u0131ts\u0131z kalarak g\u00fcn\u00fc primsiz kapatt\u0131. Teknik olarak bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise <strong>\u0130MKB 30\u2019da<\/strong> 72,000 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece al\u0131mlar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacakt\u0131r. Fakat a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 69,000 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek bulunuyor. Bu destek k\u0131r\u0131lmadan \u0130MKB\u2019de sert bir sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131ndan bahsedemeyiz. \u015euan i\u00e7in hareket alan\u0131 69,000-72,000 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de \u00f6zellikle olas\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131nda 69,000 deste\u011finin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almaktan \u00e7ekinilmemesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Benzer \u015fekilde 72,000 \u00fczerinde de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlara a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilmesi do\u011fru olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Son olarak USD\/TL kuruna de\u011finecek olursak, TCMB d\u00fcn d\u00f6viz munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131nda 50 baz puanl\u0131k indirim yapt\u0131 ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck ihale tutar\u0131n\u0131 1 milyar 350 milyon dolar olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u0130halede ise 750 milyon dolarl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f yap\u0131ld\u0131. TCMB bu sayede piyasaya d\u00f6viz likiditesi sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f oldu. Bunun yan\u0131nda zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n yabanc\u0131 para cinsinden tutulabilecek k\u0131sm\u0131nda azami oran\u0131 %10\u2019dan %20\u2019ye \u00e7ekti. B\u00f6ylece de kendi d\u00f6viz rezervlerini art\u0131rarak elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirme yoluna gitti. Bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f ihalelerini yetersiz ve anlams\u0131z g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. D\u00fcn yap\u0131lan bu m\u00fcdahale ise TCMB\u2019nin niyetini g\u00f6stermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a olumlu. Bu hareket global \u00f6l\u00e7ekte s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar devam etse dahi d\u00f6vizde ani hareketlerin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ecektir. Bu nedenle kurda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler yapmasa da (TCMB\u2019nin de zaten b\u00f6yle bir niyeti yok) kurda y\u00fckseli\u015flerin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 kesecek bir hareket olmas\u0131 nedeniyle olumlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yoruz. Kur i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin beklentimiz ise daha az dalgalanan ve \u015fuan bulundu\u011fu seviyelere g\u00f6re art\u0131\/eksi %5\u2019lik bir hareket alan\u0131 olu\u015fturan bir seyir izleyece\u011fimiz y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN<\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong>Kapital Menkul De\u011ferler A.\u015e.<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>T\u00fcrev Ara\u00e7lar Birimi \/ Uzman<\/strong><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Tel: 0212 330 04 70<\/strong><strong><br \/>\nFax<strong>: 0212 330 0 369<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong><a title=\"blocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\nhttp:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" href=\"http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr<br \/>\n<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><a title=\"blocked::mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\nblocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" href=\"mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\"><strong>udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>UYARI: <\/strong>Burada yer alan yat\u0131r\u0131m bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda degildir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 hizmeti; Arac\u0131 kurumlar, portf\u00f6y y\u00f6netim sirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile m\u00fcsteri aras\u0131nda imzalanacak yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 s\u00f6zlesmesi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde sunulmaktad\u0131r. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanlar\u0131n kisisel g\u00f6r\u00fcslerine dayanmaktad\u0131r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcsler, mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanarak yat\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonu\u00e7lar dogurmayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerimi Twitter \u00fczerinden payla\u015faca\u011f\u0131m, takip etmek isteyenler i\u00e7in adresim: @uzeyir_dogan Avrupa\u2019daki son durum, \u0130MKB ve Dolar\/TL \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Avrupa\u2019da bankalar\u0131n&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6096","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6096","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6096"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6096\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6096"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6096"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6096"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}