{"id":6090,"date":"2011-10-06T08:59:41","date_gmt":"2011-10-06T05:59:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6090"},"modified":"2011-10-06T09:29:56","modified_gmt":"2011-10-06T06:29:56","slug":"sasirmamak-elde-degil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/sasirmamak-elde-degil\/","title":{"rendered":"\u015ea\u015f\u0131rmamak Elde De\u011fil"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130talya&#8217;n\u0131n notunun \u00fc\u00e7 basamak indirilip Malta seviyesine getirilmesine de, &#8216;Oynakl\u0131k&#8217; istemedi\u011fi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan uzak durdu\u011fu bilinen Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n dolar\u0131n 1.90&#8217;\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine sat\u0131\u015fla piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etmesi de \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131k yaratan geli\u015fmeler. Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n uzun vadede kendisine gelebilece\u011fi ve bizi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmaya devam edece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130\u00e7erde yeni \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131klar ya\u015famamak i\u00e7in OVP k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede a\u00e7\u0131klay\u0131p yerli \u00fcretime destek verici mikro reformlar\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irmeliyiz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2037138493\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Birisi iki g\u00fcn \u00f6nce \u0130talya&#8217;n\u0131n notunun \u00fc\u00e7 basamak indirilece\u011fini ve malta seviyesine inece\u011fini s\u00f6ylese inanmazd\u0131k. Ama \u0130talya&#8217;n\u0131n Moody&#8217;s taraf\u0131ndan Aa2 seviyesinden notu \u00fc\u00e7 basamak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya A2&#8217;ye g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc negatife indirdi. Bu kararla \u0130talya&#8217;n\u0131n notu Malta&#8217;n\u0131n notu ile e\u015fitlendi. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda da Standard and Poor&#8217;s \u0130talya&#8217;n\u0131n notunu indirmi\u015fti. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde ge\u00e7en Cuma Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131 n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 dinleyenlere Merkez&#8217;in tutumundan neler bekledi\u011fini sorsayd\u0131k, herhalde bize gelecek hafta milyar dolar \u00fczerinde sat\u0131\u015fla piyasaya m\u00fcdahale eder diyen kimse olmazd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bir yandan kulaklar\u0131m\u0131z d\u0131\u015far\u0131daki geli\u015fmelerde, g\u00f6zlerimiz Avrupa&#8217;daki geli\u015fmelerin d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131ndaki d\u00f6n\u00fck ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. Bir yandan da bunlar\u0131n yurt i\u00e7indeki yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131n neler oldu\u011funu izliyoruz. Ve genellikle d\u00fcn oldu\u011fu gibi \u00f6nceden de\u011ferlendirilmesi, beklenilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayan olaylarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Edirne konu\u015fmas\u0131nda d\u00f6viz\/TL de\u011ferleri konusuna de\u011finirken iki a\u00e7\u0131klamada bulunmu\u015ftu. Bunlardan biri &#8220;TL&#8217;nin daha fazla de\u011fer kaybetmesine m\u00fcsaade etmeyece\u011fiz&#8221; c\u00fcmlesiydi. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan d\u00fcnk\u00fc 1 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki sat\u0131\u015fla 1.90 seviyesine gelen dolar\u0131 ve 2.20&#8217;nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan d\u00f6viz sepetini bu seviyelerin alt\u0131na indirmek istemesi bu a\u00e7\u0131dan uyumlu bir davran\u0131\u015f olarak kabul edilebilir. Ancak Ba\u015fkan Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, o g\u00fcn bir ba\u015fka de\u011ferlendirme daha yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131: &#8220;Bizim i\u00e7in oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n az olmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli. Bizim 2-3 ayda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z m\u00fcdahale i\u00e7in sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, bir g\u00fcnde piyasaya veren \u00fclkeler oldu. \u015eokla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sa\u011flad\u0131lar ama sonra h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f oldu oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek oldu.&#8221; Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnk\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00e7eli\u015fir g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ama san\u0131r\u0131m dolarda 1.90 ve sepette 2.20&#8217;lik e\u015fi\u011fi Merkez Bankas\u0131 i\u00e7in beklenmeyen bir seviye olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck sat\u0131\u015fl\u0131 sert m\u00fcdahaleyi gerektirdi. Bu da hem sepeti hemen 2.18&#8217;lere, dolar\u0131 1.88&#8217;lere geriletti.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 d\u00fcn bir ba\u015fka karar daha ald\u0131. Piyasada d\u00f6viz likiditesini sa\u011flamak ve bankalar\u0131n yabanc\u0131 para likiditelerinde vadelerin uzamas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in yabanc\u0131 para zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 0.50 baz puan ile 2.5 puan aras\u0131nda indirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Bu kararlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiren uzmanlar, Avrupa&#8217;da karar alma mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7 i\u015flemesi nedeniyle olumsuzluktan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n iki y\u0131la kadar uzayabilece\u011fini ve bunun bize olumsuz yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede ortadan kalmas\u0131n\u0131 beklememek gerekti\u011fi de\u011ferlendirmesini yap\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Barkas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00f6viz munzamlar\u0131n\u0131 n zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 indirmesinin k\u0131sa vadede \u00f6nemli sonu\u00e7 vermesini beklemediklerini,\u00a0 1 milyar dolar \u00fczerindeki m\u00fcdahale al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ise d\u00f6viz de\u011ferlerinde bir gerileme sa\u011flasa da kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fcretimi esas alan kararlarla desteklenmesi gerekti\u011fi yorumunu ortaya koyuyorlar. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle yabanc\u0131 paralar\u0131n TL kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda gerilemesinin 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesiyle g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fini, dengenin 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 ortas\u0131nda sa\u011flanabilece\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Bize g\u00f6re Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n kararlar\u0131 \u00f6nemli ama yeterli olmayacakt\u0131r. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Orta Vadeli Program\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 ve onunla birlikte yerli \u00fcreticileri destekleyici yeni kararlar\u0131n, mikro reformlar\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7irilmeye ba\u015flanmas\u0131 gerekir. Bu \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l bir yandan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin frenlenmesi ile ithal girdi talebini azalt\u0131rken bir yandan da ithal girdilerin yerini yerli \u00fcretimin almas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak reformlarla bizim en \u00f6nemli sorunumuz olan cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekilmesine ikili bir etki yapacakt\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2678237511\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u00fcnyada ve \u00f6zellikle Avrupa&#8217;da gelecek d\u00f6nemde de bizi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtacak olaylar ve kararlar g\u00fcndeme gelemeye devam edecektir. Buna kar\u0131\u015f\u0131 bizi i\u00e7erde \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtacak kararlar\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmama\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fcretimi s\u00fcrekli k\u0131lacak ve ara mal\u0131 girdilerini yerlile\u015ftirecek reformlar\u0131 yaparak yola devam etmemiz gerekir. TL&#8217;nin son 6 ayda y\u00fczde 30 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n ithalat\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 da bu KOB\u0130 destekli reformist d\u00f6nemin zaman\u0131n geldi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130talya&#8217;n\u0131n notunun \u00fc\u00e7 basamak indirilip Malta seviyesine getirilmesine de, &#8216;Oynakl\u0131k&#8217; istemedi\u011fi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan uzak durdu\u011fu bilinen Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n dolar\u0131n 1.90&#8217;\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":903,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6090","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6090"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6090\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6090"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6090"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6090"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}