{"id":6043,"date":"2011-10-05T09:19:42","date_gmt":"2011-10-05T06:19:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6043"},"modified":"2011-10-05T09:19:51","modified_gmt":"2011-10-05T06:19:51","slug":"saglam-liman-araniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/saglam-liman-araniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Sa\u011flam Liman Aran\u0131yor!.."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde belirsizlik ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k artt\u0131k\u00e7a riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma ve sa\u011flam bir liman bulup s\u0131\u011f\u0131nma e\u011filimi do\u011fal olarak g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te finansal piyasalar dalgalan\u0131yor, ciddi yanl\u0131\u015f alg\u0131lamalar olabiliyor veya b\u00f6yle olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6zel ve kapsaml\u0131 \u00e7abalar harcanabiliyor. Piyasa oyunc\u00e7ular\u0131 kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na uygun olacak \u015fekilde sa\u011flam liman tam\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak kafa kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p ger\u00e7ek veya kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayan g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler yaratabiliyor. Sistemik risk art\u0131p g\u00fcven bunal\u0131m\u0131 derinle\u015ftik\u00e7e sa\u011flam liman say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmamak gerekiyor. \u00d6zellikle rekabet ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n bozuldu\u011fu, faaliyet gelirleri azal\u0131rken yoksulluk s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda tehlikeli bir yo\u011funla\u015fma ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bug\u00fcnkine benzer d\u00f6nemlerde \u00e7ok dikkat etmek gerekiyor. Zira k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayan bu ve benzeri durgunluklarda eskiden kalma alg\u0131lamalar\u0131n ge\u00e7erli olmayabilece\u011fini dikkate almak gerekiyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1450549260\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2000&#8217;li y\u0131llar \u00f6ncesinde k\u00fcresel veya b\u00f6lgesel bazda belirsizlik artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerden geli\u015fmi\u015f olanlara do\u011fru bir y\u00f6nelik ya\u015fan\u0131r, veya bunu yapamayanlar geli\u015fmi\u015f olanlar\u0131n paralar\u0131na veya alt\u0131na faizci olarak yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparak kendilerini korumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rd\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilere pek bir \u015fey olmayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131r, sistemik k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelmez idi. Bankac\u0131l\u0131k mevzuat\u0131 ne kambiyo rejimi bu y\u00f6ndeki tercihlerde baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131nda etkili olurdu. Geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 ise belirsizlik durumunda ve ciddi bir enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil ise kendi hazinesinin senetlerine s\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131r idi. Bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in t\u00fcm ko\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen k\u0131smen eski davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n tekrarland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya sanki ko\u015fullar hi\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fmemi\u015f gibi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiler ya\u015fanacak finansal depremlerin merkez \u00fcss\u00fc olmaya adayd\u0131r ve bu nedenle sa\u011flam liman \u00f6zellikleri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde t\u00fckenmi\u015ftir. Zira bu \u00fclkeler durgunluktan \u00e7\u0131kamamakta ve sorunlar\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fmaktad\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 ve a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fm\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 y\u00fckleri nedeniyle hazinelerinin, sorunlu mali yap\u0131 ve parasal geni\u015fleme nedeniyle Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n itibar\u0131 gerilemeye devam etmektedir. Bu tablo sistemik k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131ktaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n sebebi durumundad\u0131r. Durum normal iken geli\u015fmi\u015flerden geli\u015fmekte olanlara, anormalle\u015fti\u011finde ise tam aksine \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck finansal ak\u0131mlar ya\u015fanmaktad\u0131r; mevcut yap\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu nedenlerle anormal d\u00fczeylere t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ka\u00e7\u0131lan yer de ko\u015fulan yerde art\u0131k \u00e7ok g\u00fcvenli de\u011fildir. Bu tablo k\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir sonu\u00e7tur. Ko\u015fullar sa\u011flam liman olarak alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131karmakta ve bu durum sistemik k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131ran sebeplerden biri olmaktad\u0131r. G\u00fcn\u00fc kurtarmak amac\u0131 ile yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yetersiz veya yanl\u0131\u015f bilgi ile piyasalar\u0131n ise yapay y\u00f6ntemler ile y\u00f6nlendirilmesi g\u00fcndeme gelebilmektedir. Alt\u0131nda son iki ay i\u00e7inde ya\u015fanan dalgalanmay\u0131 bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede de\u011ferlendirmek daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Alt\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ilgi art\u0131k\u00e7a hem fiyat\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor hem de di\u011fer emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde etkileyerek enflasyon alg\u0131lamalar\u0131n\u0131 keskinle\u015ftirerek g\u00fcven bunal\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftirip k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu etkile\u015fimi ve alg\u0131lamay\u0131 k\u0131rmak g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetmeye devam eden sistemin \u00f6mr\u00fcn\u00fc biraz olsun uzatmak i\u00e7in hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Birileri herkesle birlikte alt\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131r, daha sonra teminatlar\u0131n da y\u00fckselmesi gerek\u00e7esi ve katk\u0131s\u0131 ile h\u0131zla satmaya ba\u015flar ise son dalgada alt\u0131n alanlar ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere herkesin eli yak\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, kafas\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olur; Bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in ne yapacaklar\u0131n\u0131 bilemezler, bu \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131kta olanlar\u0131 eksik bilgi ile yeniden formatlamak ve y\u00f6nlendirmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Ayr\u0131ca alt\u0131nla birlikte di\u011fer emtia fiyatlar\u0131 da geriler, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in merkez bankalar\u0131 yeni bir parasal geni\u015fleme dalgalas\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmaya ba\u015flar&#8230; Bir s\u00fcre zaman kazan\u0131l\u0131r ancak sorunlar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fmas\u0131 ve sistemik k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 engellenemez&#8230; Bir sonraki g\u00fcven bunal\u0131m\u0131 dalgas\u0131n\u0131n benzer \u015fekilde y\u00f6nlendirilmesi ve y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131n engellenmesi pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmaz&#8230; K\u0131sa vadeli spek\u00fclatif e\u011filimler ile sa\u011flam liman arayanlar\u0131n kafas\u0131n\u0131 bir veya iki kere kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilirsiniz; ya sonra&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde belirsizlik ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k artt\u0131k\u00e7a riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma ve sa\u011flam bir liman bulup s\u0131\u011f\u0131nma e\u011filimi do\u011fal olarak g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te finansal piyasalar dalgalan\u0131yor, ciddi yanl\u0131\u015f&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":931,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6043","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6043"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6043\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6043"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6043"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6043"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}