{"id":6040,"date":"2011-10-05T09:18:47","date_gmt":"2011-10-05T06:18:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6040"},"modified":"2011-10-05T09:18:56","modified_gmt":"2011-10-05T06:18:56","slug":"hangi-pencereden-bakmali","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/hangi-pencereden-bakmali\/","title":{"rendered":"Hangi Pencereden Bakmal\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin yap\u0131lan \u00f6v\u00fcc\u00fc konu\u015fmalar\u0131n yerinde olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hangi pencereden bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131za ba\u011fl\u0131. \u0130ki pencere \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nemli. \u0130lki &#8216;istikrar&#8217;, ikincisi ise &#8216;uzun d\u00f6nemli b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131&#8217; penceresi. Sadece istikrar penceresinden bakmay\u0131 tercih ediyorsan\u0131z ortada ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir T\u00fcrkiye var. \u0130kinci pencereden bakmay\u0131 ye\u011fledi\u011finizde ise g\u00f6r\u00fclen T\u00fcrkiye manzaras\u0131 pek i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. \u00d6nemli olan ilk penceredeki g\u00fczel manzaray\u0131 ikincisine de ta\u015f\u0131mak.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1154692922\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bir \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc pencere daha var ama bu pencereden bakman\u0131n bir anlam\u0131 yok. Bu pencere T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131nc\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u015e\u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn: Bir A \u00fclkesi var bir de B \u00fclkesi. A \u00fclkesinin gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131 (GSYH) 1 trilyon dolar, n\u00fcfusu ise 100 milyon. GSYH&#8217;sinin bu d\u00fczeyi bu \u00fclkeyi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n onuncu b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi yaps\u0131n. B \u00fclkesinin GSYH&#8217;si A \u00fclkesinin yar\u0131s\u0131 kadar, yani 500 milyar dolar, n\u00fcfusu ise 25 milyon &#8211; A \u00fclkesinin d\u00f6rtte biri kadar- olsun. Bu GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ile B \u00fclkesi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n yirminci b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi konumunda. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle A&#8217;n\u0131n \u00e7ok gerisinde.<\/p>\n<p>Soru \u015fu: Hangi \u00fclke daha zengin? \u015e\u00fcphesiz B \u00fclkesi. A \u00fclkesine k\u0131yasla iki kat\u0131 daha zengin: Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyi B \u00fclkesinde 20 bin dolar iken A \u00fclkesinde 10 bin dolar. K\u0131ssadan hisse: GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u0131ralamas\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na \u00f6nemli de\u011fil. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 hi\u00e7 olmazsa ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyine g\u00f6re yapmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>&#8216;Hi\u00e7 olmazsa&#8217; dedim; ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyi de insanlar\u0131n refah\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli de\u011fil. Bu gelirin nas\u0131l da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. \u0130nsanlar\u0131n do\u011fduklar\u0131nda ortalama ka\u00e7 y\u0131l ya\u015famalar\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi \u00f6nemli. Bu gelirin nas\u0131l yarat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131; \u00e7evrenin kirletilip kirletilmedi\u011fi, ortalama e\u011fitim d\u00fczeyi gibi g\u00f6stergeler de \u00f6nemli. Ama a\u00e7\u0131k ki ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyi &#8216;bir \u015fey&#8217; g\u00f6sterirken, salt ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne bakman\u0131n hi\u00e7bir anlam\u0131 yok. Kald\u0131 ki yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, baz\u0131 istisnalar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (mesela K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri), ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyi ile yukar\u0131da belirtti\u011fim g\u00f6stergeler aras\u0131nda do\u011fru orant\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sacas\u0131 yine iki pencere ile ba\u015f ba\u015fa kal\u0131yoruz. &#8216;\u0130stikrar penceresi&#8217; genellikle g\u00fczel bir manzara sunuyor bize: B\u00fct\u00e7e performans\u0131m\u0131z iyi. Kamu borcu GSYH&#8217;mizin y\u00fczde 42&#8217;si kadar; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir rakam. Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcz sa\u011flam. Reel faizler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir d\u00fczeyde. Bu ortamda en \u00f6nemlisi de T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye y\u00f6nelik risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmamas\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Manzaram\u0131z\u0131 daha da g\u00fczelle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in yap\u0131lacak baz\u0131 i\u015fler de yok de\u011fil. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle baz\u0131 ayr\u0131ks\u0131 otlar mevcut: Y\u00fcksek d\u00f6viz ihtiyac\u0131 (y\u00fcksek cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131) var ve bu ihtiya\u00e7 k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye giri\u015fleri ile kar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131yor. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede al\u0131nabilecek ekonomi politikas\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerinden biri olan b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplinini art\u0131rmak konusunda biraz ayak diredik: Ge\u00e7ici gelir art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00e7e performans\u0131nda bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla bozulma var. Avrupa bankalar\u0131nda sorun \u00e7\u0131karsa bankalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n da bir miktar olumsuzluk ya\u015famalar\u0131 beklenir. Enflasyon hedefin \u00fczerinde kalacak. Bu ayr\u0131k otlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n istikrar penceresi g\u00fczel bir manzara sunuyor bize. Kald\u0131 ki o otlar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 temizlemek i\u00e7in de \u00e7aba harcan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Ama i\u015f uzun vadeye gelince de\u011fi\u015fiyor; hem manzara g\u00fczel de\u011fil hem de manzaray\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in pek bir \u015fey yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenemez. 1951-2010 d\u00f6nemindeki ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 4.8 d\u00fczeyinde. Yak\u0131n d\u00f6neme gelince durum \u015f\u00f6yle: 2001-2010 d\u00f6neminde ortalama y\u00fczde 3.9, 2003-2010 d\u00f6neminde ise ortalama y\u00fczde 4.8 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcz. 2011&#8217;de y\u00fczde 7 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcrsek, son be\u015f y\u0131ldaki (2007-2011) ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z ise y\u00fczde 3.2 oluyor. Hat\u0131rlatay\u0131m: 2012 i\u00e7in IMF&#8217;nin T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in karamsar b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini, Avrupa&#8217;da i\u015flerin kar\u0131\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve ABD&#8217;nin de resesyona girmeyece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131 alt\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.5. K\u0131sacas\u0131, k\u00fcre ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 daha fazla belaya sokmazsa ve IMF&#8217;nin karamsar tahminin bir miktar \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcsek -mesela Say\u0131n Ali Babacan&#8217;\u0131n uzun d\u00f6nemdeki ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131z tahmini ge\u00e7erli olsa- bile, 2007-2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 3.5&#8217;i ge\u00e7meyecek. Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda 2003-2012 ortalamas\u0131 da pek de\u011fi\u015fmeyecek.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci pencereden g\u00f6r\u00fclen manzara \u015fu: Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyi ile T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyi aras\u0131nda kabul edilemez \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fcksek bir fark var ve bu fark, 1950&#8217;den bu yana ortalamada y\u00fczde 4.8 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f olmam\u0131za kar\u015f\u0131n, de\u011fi\u015fmeden kald\u0131. Oysa bu bir kader de\u011fil. Bu fark\u0131 kapatan \u00fclkeler var.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1255682589\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu konuya tekrar d\u00f6nmemin nedeni \u015fu: Meclisin a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada Say\u0131n Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Abdullah G\u00fcl \u00f6nemli bir saptama yapt\u0131. 2023&#8217;e kadar her y\u0131l kesintisiz y\u00fczde 10 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcrsek, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyimiz Avrupa Birli\u011fi&#8217;nin ortalama ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelirinin y\u00fczde 80&#8217;ine ula\u015facak. B\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n iki kat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 yakalamam\u0131z gerekiyor ki Say\u0131n G\u00fcl&#8217;\u00fcn i\u015faret etti\u011fi gelir d\u00fczeyine 2023&#8217;te ula\u015fal\u0131m. \u00dcstelik Avrupa Birli\u011fi&#8217;nin ortalamas\u0131 denilince i\u015fin i\u00e7ine durumu bizden farkl\u0131 olmayan Bulgaristan ve Romanya gibi \u00fclkeler de giriyor. Zenginleri dikkate alarak bu hesap yap\u0131lsa gerekli b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131kacak. Durum budur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin yap\u0131lan \u00f6v\u00fcc\u00fc konu\u015fmalar\u0131n yerinde olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hangi pencereden bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131za ba\u011fl\u0131. \u0130ki pencere \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nemli. \u0130lki &#8216;istikrar&#8217;, ikincisi ise &#8216;uzun d\u00f6nemli b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131&#8217;&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6040","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6040","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6040"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6040\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6040"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6040"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6040"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}