{"id":6037,"date":"2011-10-05T09:17:56","date_gmt":"2011-10-05T06:17:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=6037"},"modified":"2011-10-05T09:18:06","modified_gmt":"2011-10-05T06:18:06","slug":"dis-dengede-duzeltme-suruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dis-dengede-duzeltme-suruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u0131\u015f Dengede D\u00fczeltme S\u00fcr\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Merakla izledi\u011fimiz baz\u0131 geli\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin son veriler yay\u0131nland\u0131. Bu ba\u011flamda \u00f6nemli bir veri A\u011fustos ay\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaretine ili\u015fkin bilgileri ta\u015f\u0131yordu. Bu verinin \u00f6nemi d\u0131\u015f ticaretin do\u011frudan cari denge a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerin bu ba\u011flamda yeni bilgiler ta\u015f\u0131yor olmas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-810782170\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Cari denge a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n boyutunu yani ekonomideki dengesizli\u011fin \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu a\u00e7\u0131k d\u00fczeltilip, ta\u015f\u0131nabilir bir boyuta indirilemedi\u011fi takdirde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi k\u00fcresel planda riskli bir ekonomi olarak alg\u0131lanmaya devam edecek. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle temel dengesizlik k\u0131smen de olsa d\u00fczeltilmedi\u011fi takdirde ekonomi cari a\u00e7\u0131k-kur riski k\u0131skac\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f konumunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. D\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri bunun i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>A\u011fustos ay\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verileri beklentilerden biraz sap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu gibi bir izlenim veriyor. D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 7.1 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131 bekleniyordu. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme bunun \u00fczerinde oldu. Ekonomi A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda 8.2 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k verdi.<\/p>\n<p>Beklentileri a\u015fan a\u00e7\u0131k d\u00fczeyi d\u0131\u015f ticarette i\u015flerin beklendi\u011fi gibi gitmedi\u011fi izlenimi verebilir. Ancak ayr\u0131nt\u0131ya inildi\u011finde durumun pek de b\u00f6yle olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Farkl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lardan yap\u0131lacak de\u011ferlendirmeler asl\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f ticarette olumlu y\u00f6nde mesafe al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131ndan birisi d\u0131\u015f ticaret kalemlerine ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na mevsimsel ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan g\u00fcne g\u00f6re yap\u0131lan d\u00fczeltmelerden sonra bakmakt\u0131r. Bu d\u00fczeltmelerden sonra A\u011fustos ay\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 6.2 milyar dolar olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Bu beklenin alt\u0131nda bir ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ise tekil ayl\u0131k verilerden \u00e7ok son aylardaki e\u011filimi belirleyecek say\u0131lara bakmakt\u0131r. Gerekli d\u00fczeltmeler yap\u0131lmadan hesaplanan kaba verilere g\u00f6re d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 10.1 milyar dolarl\u0131k de\u011fer ile tepe yapt\u0131ktan sonra duraklam\u0131\u015f ve Temmuz ay\u0131nda 9.0 milyar dolara A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda ise\u00a0 8.2 milyar dolara gerilemi\u015ftir. Mevsim ve takvime g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f say\u0131lardan hareketle yap\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirmeye g\u00f6re de d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 9.4 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde tepe yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha sonra daralmaya ba\u015flayarak Temmuz ay\u0131nda 8.7 milyar dolara A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda ise 6.2 milyar dolara geriledi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.\u00a0 K\u0131sacas\u0131, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki gerileme son aylarda bir trend haline gelmi\u015ftir. Daralma dozu ise gittk\u00e7e b\u00fcy\u00fcmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-855021905\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan daralma e\u011filimi baz\u0131 \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmelerin de habercisi niteli\u011findedir. Bu geli\u015fmelerden birisi d\u0131\u015f ticaretteki daralma e\u011filiminin ekonominin d\u0131\u015f dengesindeki bozulman\u0131n, yani cari denge a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki geni\u015flemenin sonuna gelindi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor olmas\u0131d\u0131r. K\u00fcresel krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin bir \u00e7ok boyutta g\u00f6rece pozitif bir geli\u015fme sergilerken d\u0131\u015f dengesinde, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda\u00a0 adeta patlar gibi bir bozulma e\u011filiminin egemen oldu\u011fu biliniyor. Adeta s\u00fcreklilik kazanan bu bozulma e\u011filiminin temel bir risk unsuru olarak alg\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 da malum.<\/p>\n<p>D\u0131\u015f ticaret kalemlerinde ve ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda trend \u015feklinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eti\u011fimiz daralma e\u011filimi cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa da yans\u0131makta ve bu ba\u011flamda da g\u00f6reli bir d\u00fczelme g\u00f6zlenmektedir. Bu say\u0131lardan hareketle Temmuz ay\u0131nda GSMH&#8217;n\u0131n y\u00fczde 9 oran\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olan cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda y\u00fczde 9&#8217;un alt\u0131na inece\u011fi, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise bu say\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 6 civar\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilmektedir. Yani ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na ilaveten cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n da gittik\u00e7e daralaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu tahminde risk a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fcd\u00fcr. Yani tahminde bir sapma olursa cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n daha da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck rakkamlara kaymas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 tersi bir duruma k\u0131yasla daha y\u00fcksektir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, A\u011fustos ay\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin en ciddi risk noktas\u0131ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00f6nemli bir i\u015faret ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131klarda trend haline geldi\u011fi g\u00f6zlenen daralman\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi ikinci geli\u015fme T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin temel dengelerindeki bozulman\u0131n durmas\u0131 ve bu ba\u011flamda bir d\u00fczeltme hareketinin ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle, b\u00fct\u00fcn bu geli\u015fmeler T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin\u00a0 &#8220;yeniden dengelenme&#8221;\u00a0 (rebalancing) s\u00fcrecinde yol ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima etmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin gerekli yeniden dengelenmeyi beceremedikleri i\u00e7in d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ikinci bir kriz tehdidi alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu biliyoruz. B\u00f6yle bir ortamda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde bir yeniden dengelenme dinami\u011finin ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131\u00a0 \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fmedir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4059013571\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merakla izledi\u011fimiz baz\u0131 geli\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin son veriler yay\u0131nland\u0131. Bu ba\u011flamda \u00f6nemli bir veri A\u011fustos ay\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaretine ili\u015fkin bilgileri ta\u015f\u0131yordu. Bu verinin \u00f6nemi d\u0131\u015f ticaretin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6037"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6037\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}