{"id":59069,"date":"2019-08-09T12:46:24","date_gmt":"2019-08-09T09:46:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=59069"},"modified":"2019-08-10T09:36:39","modified_gmt":"2019-08-10T06:36:39","slug":"tl-neden-deger-kazaniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/tl-neden-deger-kazaniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TL Neden De\u011fer Kazan\u0131yor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-437901213\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00f6demeler dengesi rakamlar\u0131ndan sonra, Haziran 2019 itibari ile, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2002\u2019den bu yana ilk defa, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda cari fazla verdi. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 500 mn usd. Elbette ihracattaki art\u0131\u015ftan ziyade, ithalattaki h\u0131zl\u0131 daralmadan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f rakamlara bakarsak, Haziran itibari ile 170mlr usd ihracat\u0131m\u0131z ve 200mlr usd ithalat\u0131m\u0131z var. \u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131z y\u0131ll\u0131k yaln\u0131zca %4 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, itahlat\u0131m\u0131z da %20 daralm\u0131\u015f durumda. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ekonomik modelimiz de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f ve ihra\u00e7 ederek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kap\u0131yor de\u011filiz. Aksine i\u00e7 talep \u00e7ok darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ithalat\u0131m\u0131z olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in cari fazla vermekteyiz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yeniden +2, +3 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z da h\u0131zla geni\u015fliyor olacak.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>\u00d6demeler dengesi rakamlar\u0131nda, ekonominin dipten d\u00f6n\u00fcp d\u00f6nmedi\u011fini anlamak i\u00e7in, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131ndaki gidi\u015fata da bak\u0131yoruz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin modeli bor\u00e7lanarak, d\u0131\u015f sermaye \u00e7ekerek b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerine kurulu. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da hem 12 ayl\u0131k hem de 6 ayl\u0131k banka ve reel kesim d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 \u00e7evirme rasyolar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, asl\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme taraf\u0131nda bir dipten d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011fu i\u015faretleri mevcut. Hangi veriye bakarsak bakal\u0131m, Haziran\u2019dan itibaren ekonominin dipten d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rebiliriz. Lakin bunun boyutu \u00f6nemli. Yine 12 ayl\u0131k k\u00fcm\u00fcle bor\u00e7 \u00e7evirme rakamlar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle banka kesiminin halen d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 \u00f6deyici (deleverage) konumda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermekte. Bunun anlam\u0131, dipten d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f var ama yeterince g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fil. Temelde de bilan\u00e7olarda ya\u015fanan a\u011f\u0131r y\u00fck yatmakta. O konu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmedi\u011fi m\u00fcddet\u00e7e %2 civar\u0131 bir bi\u00fcy\u00fcmeye eri\u015firiz, lakin, eskiden g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz %4-5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeleri yakalamam\u0131z olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:heading {&#8220;level&#8221;:4} &#8211;><\/p>\n<h4><strong>Peki TL neden de\u011fer kazan\u0131yor?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:heading &#8211;><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3519385583\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131da anlatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m k\u0131s\u0131m daha \u00e7ok ekonominin orta-uzun vade zay\u0131fl\u0131klar\u0131 ile ilgili. K\u0131sa vadede olanlara, faizdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe, TL taraf\u0131ndaki de\u011ferlenmeye bakarsak. Herkes \u00e7ok anlam veremese de piyasa i\u00e7inde olanlar\u0131m\u0131z asl\u0131nda bu TL de\u011ferlenme hareketini ve faizdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrecini&nbsp; 2-3 ay evvel beklemekteydi.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1208492138\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Burada kritik nokta k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f hareketleri ile, ekonomideki ana trendi ay\u0131rt etmekte yat\u0131yor. Uzun vade T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi temellerine bakarak \u201cpiyasa yorumu yapmak\u201d bug\u00fcn de ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gibi, yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olabilir. Piyasalar, \u201cyaln\u0131zca temel makro g\u00f6stergelere g\u00f6re hareket etmiyorlar\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sa vadede hem faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc hem de TL\u2019nin de\u011ferlenmesi i\u00e7in gerekli ko\u015fullar 2-3 ayd\u0131r olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Aksi \u015fekilde, uzun vadede T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131klar halen s\u00fcrmekte. Bu sebepten de TL\u2019deki bu hareketi bir trend de\u011fi\u015fimi \u015feklinde yorumlamak yerine, k\u0131sa vadede bir tak\u0131mr isklerin geride kalmas\u0131 ile a\u00e7\u0131klamak daha makul olabilir. Peki ne oldu.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Hareket Haziran se\u00e7im yenilenmesi \u00f6ncesinde ba\u015flad\u0131, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc global konjonkt\u00fcr, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler lehine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. FED-ECB t\u00fcm major merkez bankalar\u0131 yeniden gev\u015femeye ge\u00e7tiler. Parasal duru\u015f de\u011fi\u015fti.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/pb-borfin-tahvil-bono-1\" rel=\"external nofollow noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #3366ff;font-weight:bold;\">TAHV\u0130L-BONO P\u0130YASASINDA NASIL YATIRIM YAPILIR? UZMANINDAN HEMEN \u00d6\u011eRENMEYE BA\u015eLA!<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:heading {&#8220;level&#8221;:6} &#8211;><\/p>\n<h6>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/yorum\/gizem-oztok-altinsac\/2230478-tl-neden-deger-kazaniyor\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" aria-label=\"TIKLAYINIZ (yeni sekmede a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r)\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">TIKLAYINIZ<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:heading &#8211;><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;> Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00f6demeler dengesi rakamlar\u0131ndan sonra, Haziran 2019 itibari ile, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2002\u2019den bu yana ilk defa, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda cari fazla verdi.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3956,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,2184],"class_list":["post-59069","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-gizem-oztok-altinsac-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59069","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3956"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59069"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59069\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}