{"id":5838,"date":"2011-10-01T10:07:49","date_gmt":"2011-10-01T07:07:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5838"},"modified":"2011-10-01T10:07:57","modified_gmt":"2011-10-01T07:07:57","slug":"sadece-cari-acik-var-ve-bankaciligimiz-guclu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/sadece-cari-acik-var-ve-bankaciligimiz-guclu\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8216;Sadece cari a\u00e7\u0131k var&#8217; ve &#8216;bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc&#8217;!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>T\u00fcrkiye son olarak 1946&#8217;da d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 vermi\u015fti. Oysa ge\u00e7en 65 y\u0131lda, Brezilya sadece 15 y\u0131l ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vermi\u015f.<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-297821879\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00c7ok duydu\u011fum[uz] bir c\u00fcmleyle ba\u015flayay\u0131m: \u201cT\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde b\u00fct\u00fcn g\u00f6stergeler iyi. Sadece cari a\u00e7\u0131k olumsuz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor&#8230;\u201d Bu c\u00fcmle yanl\u0131\u015f m\u0131? \u0130lk bak\u0131\u015fta de\u011fil. Ama b\u00f6yle s\u00f6ylendi\u011finde insan sanki cari a\u00e7\u0131k kendi kendine olu\u015fan, ekonominin kalan\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir olaym\u0131\u015f hissine kap\u0131l\u0131yor. Hani \u201cPencere a\u00e7\u0131k kalm\u0131\u015f, \u00fc\u015f\u00fctece\u011fiz\u201d der gibi. \u201cBirisi gidip kapat\u0131versin \u015fu pencereyi [cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131]\u201d diyesi geliyor insan\u0131n.<\/p>\n<p>Ama cari a\u00e7\u0131k kalemi T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6demeler dengesi tablosunda yer alan 187 kalemden sadece birisi. \u00dcstelik bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011fe ula\u015fabilmek i\u00e7in 50 dolay\u0131nda farkl\u0131 bilgi toplan\u0131yor. Bu bilgiler ekonominin \u00e7e\u015fitli faaliyetleriyle ili\u015fkili. Peki bu faaliyetlerin her birinde i\u015fler iyi gidiyorsa bunlar\u0131n hepsi bir araya geldi\u011finde neden cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorunuyla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yoruz? \u00dcstelik k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir sorun da de\u011fil. D\u00fcnyada bizi bu konuda ge\u00e7ebilen sadece iki \u00fclke kald\u0131. ABD ve \u0130talya! Kalanlar\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ya da cari fazla veriyorlar. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa GSYH\u2019ye oran olarak bak\u0131nca, The Economist dergisinin verdi\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir \u00fclkeler listesinde, \u015fimdilik, \u015fampiyonuz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nNeden cari a\u00e7\u0131k veriyoruz sorusuna yan\u0131t verebilmek i\u00e7in s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim kalemlere bakmak gerekiyor. \u0130lk \u00e7arpan mal ihracat\u0131 ve ithalat\u0131. Bunlar aras\u0131ndaki fark, yani d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck. Bu yeni bir \u015fey de\u011fil. T\u00fcrkiye son olarak 1946\u2019da d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 vermi\u015fti. Oysa ayn\u0131 tarihten bu yana ge\u00e7en 65 y\u0131lda, can\u0131m\u0131z s\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131k\u00e7a kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yapmay\u0131 pek sevdi\u011fimiz Brezilya sadece 15 y\u0131l ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vermi\u015f. \u00dcstelik d\u00f6nemin b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7in \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 var.<\/p>\n<p>Peki d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vermesine ra\u011fmen cari i\u015flemler dengesinde fazla sa\u011flayan \u00fclkeler yok mu? Var. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u0130srail ve Hong Kong. T\u00fcrkiye b\u00f6yle de\u011fil. Bir kere, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gelir ile yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00f6dedi\u011fimiz aras\u0131ndaki fark hep eksi olmu\u015f. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k net hizmet ihracat\u0131m\u0131zla d\u0131\u015f ticaret+gelir hesaplar\u0131ndan gelen a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 epeyce t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyoruz. Buna en \u00f6nemli katk\u0131 yapan faaliyet turizm. Bu asl\u0131nda biraz farkl\u0131 okunmas\u0131 gereken bir kalem. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye turist olarak gelenlerin yedikleri, i\u00e7tikleri, sat\u0131n ald\u0131klar\u0131 mallar ve hizmetler burada muhasebele\u015ftiriliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin bir ki\u015fi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelip hal\u0131 al\u0131rsa bu turizm geliri, hal\u0131 sipari\u015fi verip yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki adresine g\u00f6ndertirse hal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k kesiminin mal ihracat\u0131 oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011fer hizmet kesimlerinin cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na katk\u0131lar\u0131 ne? Ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k ve in\u015faat net d\u00f6viz kazanan kesimler. Ama T\u00fcrkiye navlun, sigorta ve finansal hizmetler alanlar\u0131nda da net \u00f6deyici. Ger\u00e7i her f\u0131rsatta \u201cBankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemimiz g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcd\u00fcr\u201d diye \u00f6v\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz ama bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u00e2kim oldu\u011fu finans kesiminin net d\u00f6viz kazanc\u0131 2000 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana hep eksi! \u00dcstelik 2000-5 d\u00f6neminde finans kesiminin cari a\u00e7\u0131k i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 2,6 iken 2006-10 d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 3,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselmi\u015f. Demek ki, bankac\u0131l\u0131k kesimimizin \u201cg\u00fcc\u00fc\u201d her neyse, d\u00f6viz kazand\u0131ran bir \u015fey de\u011filmi\u015f. Hatta bu kesim \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7lendik\u00e7e\u201d, b\u00fcy\u00fcyen cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa katk\u0131s\u0131 daha da artm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye son olarak 1946&#8217;da d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 vermi\u015fti. Oysa ge\u00e7en 65 y\u0131lda, Brezilya sadece 15 y\u0131l ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vermi\u015f. \u00c7ok duydu\u011fum[uz] bir c\u00fcmleyle ba\u015flayay\u0131m: \u201cT\u00fcrkiye&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":1032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5838","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5838","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5838"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5838\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1032"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5838"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5838"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5838"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}