{"id":5832,"date":"2011-10-01T10:04:24","date_gmt":"2011-10-01T07:04:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=5832"},"modified":"2011-10-01T10:04:33","modified_gmt":"2011-10-01T07:04:33","slug":"once-tume-git-sonra-tumden-gel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/once-tume-git-sonra-tumden-gel\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00d6nce T\u00fcme Git, Sonra T\u00fcmden Gel"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>T\u00dcRK\u0130YE ekonomisini y\u00f6netenlerin izleyecekleri strateji de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015ftir. Bu de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fin iyice anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, i\u015f adamlar\u0131 ve bankac\u0131lar i\u00e7in ya\u015famsal derecede \u00f6nemlidir.<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3421288010\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong><\/strong>Ge\u00e7en y\u0131la kadar, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin birinci amac\u0131 \u201cenflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde tutmak\u201d idi. Bu hedef tutturulmu\u015ftur. Otob\u00fcs\u00fc yakalamak amac\u0131yla ko\u015fan adam, otob\u00fcse bindikten sonra ko\u015fmaya devam etmez. Ancak kap\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kken, basamakta seyahat etmeye kalkarsa, yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 otob\u00fcsten b\u0131rak\u0131n inmeyi, d\u00fc\u015febilir de. Enflasyon bundan b\u00f6yle \u201cusuletle ve suhuletle\u201d idare edilecektir. T\u00fcrkiye, enflasyonu resmi ad\u0131 \u201cenflasyon hedeflemesi\u201d olan \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck kur \u00e7apas\u0131\u201d y\u00f6ntemiyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Bunun i\u00e7in \u201cy\u00fcksek faiz-d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur\u201d politikas\u0131 izlemi\u015ftir. Pek tabii bunun sonucunda ortaya devasa bir \u201ccari a\u00e7\u0131k\u201d meselesi \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>YEN\u0130 STRATEJ\u0130K HEDEF CAR\u0130 A\u00c7I\u011eI D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcRMEKT\u0130R<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Enflasyonu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr veya \u00f6rt\u00fck \u201ckur \u00e7apas\u0131\u201d ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmenin \u00f6d\u00fcn\u00fc, yani istenmeyen bir bedeli vard\u0131r. O da cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesidir. Bunu herkes biliyordu. Yap\u0131lan bilin\u00e7li bir tercihti. Enflasyon canavar\u0131 kafese kondu\u011funa g\u00f6re, \u015fimdi s\u0131ra \u201ccari a\u00e7\u0131k canavar\u0131n\u0131\u201d kafese koymaya gelmi\u015ftir. Bu yeni stratejinin ka\u00e7\u0131lmaz k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni politika \u201cy\u00fcksek kur-d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz\u201d olacakt\u0131r. Bu, benim zaten ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri savundu\u011fum politika oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, yap\u0131lan de\u011fi\u015fiklikten memnun oldu\u011fum a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. \u0130\u015f adamlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ve \u00f6zellikle bankalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n bu de\u011fi\u015fiklikten pek mutlu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131nday\u0131m. Devaml\u0131 c\u0131z\u0131rt\u0131 yap\u0131yorlar. Ama \u015funa inans\u0131nlar ki, bu de\u011fi\u015fim orta ve uzun vade de en \u00e7ok onlar\u0131n hayr\u0131na olacakt\u0131r. Yoksa iki de bir \u201cstres testi\u201d yapt\u0131rarak, deval\u00fcasyon olursa halim nice olur stresinden kurtulamazlar. Stresten kurtulman\u0131n yolu onu yaratacak sebepten, yani cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan kurtulmakt\u0131r.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>SOSYAL B\u0130L\u0130MLER\u0130N ANAL\u0130Z Y\u00d6NTEM\u0130<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Pennsylvania \u00dcniversitesindeki hocalar\u0131m\u0131zdan biri, y\u00f6neylem ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131n kurucusu, sistem d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesinin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc, y\u00f6netim bilimcisi, felsefeci ve matematik\u00e7i Russell Ackoff idi. Ackoff bir makalesinde, fizik bilimlerin analiz y\u00f6ntemi, ele al\u0131nan bir par\u00e7ay\u0131, acaba bu par\u00e7a kendisinden daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck hangi par\u00e7alardan kuruludur diye onun b\u00f6l\u00fcnemez en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck par\u00e7as\u0131na (a-tomuna) kadar par\u00e7alara ay\u0131rmakt\u0131r. Sosyal bilimlerin analiz y\u00f6ntemi ise, ele al\u0131nan par\u00e7ay\u0131,\u00a0 acaba bu par\u00e7a, kendinden b\u00fcy\u00fck hangi par\u00e7aya aittir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcp,\u00a0 \u201cb\u00fct\u00fcn\u201de ula\u015fmakt\u0131r diye yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\u00a0 Onun bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 bana hep rehber olmu\u015ftur.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>YERL\u0130 MALI T\u00dcRK\u2019\u00dcN MALI, HERKES ONU KULLANMALI<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0130ktisat, bir sosyal bilimdir. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k da iktisadi bir fenomendir. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 analiz ederken, bu b\u00fcy\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131k, acaba hangi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n bir araya gelmesiyle olu\u015fmu\u015ftur diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek yanl\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken analiz y\u00f6ntemi \u201cbu cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorunu, acaba kendisinden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hangi makro ekonomik sorunun bir par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r\u201d diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak bu y\u00f6ntemle do\u011fru \u201csebep-sonu\u00e7\u201d ili\u015fkini saptanabilir. Yoksa mazota bitkisel ya\u011f katarak, her sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ayr\u0131, ayr\u0131 inceleyip karma\u015f\u0131k, suiistimale m\u00fcsait ve b\u00fct\u00e7eye y\u00fck te\u015fkil edecek te\u015fvik tedbirleri alarak veya<br \/>\nyerli mal\u0131 haftalar\u0131 d\u00fczenleyerek cari a\u00e7\u0131k kapanmaz.<br \/>\nSon S\u00f6z: B\u00fct\u00fcn, par\u00e7ay\u0131 i\u00e7erir; par\u00e7a b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7ermez.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-708732958\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00dcRK\u0130YE ekonomisini y\u00f6netenlerin izleyecekleri strateji de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015ftir. Bu de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fin iyice anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, i\u015f adamlar\u0131 ve bankac\u0131lar i\u00e7in ya\u015famsal derecede \u00f6nemlidir. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131la kadar, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin birinci amac\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":936,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5832","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5832","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5832"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5832\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/936"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5832"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5832"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5832"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}