{"id":58169,"date":"2019-07-03T10:35:51","date_gmt":"2019-07-03T07:35:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=58169"},"modified":"2019-07-04T10:37:45","modified_gmt":"2019-07-04T07:37:45","slug":"enflasyon-bugun-duser-yarin-cikar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/enflasyon-bugun-duser-yarin-cikar\/","title":{"rendered":"Enflasyon Bug\u00fcn D\u00fc\u015fer Yar\u0131n \u00c7\u0131kar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3743401887\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n y\u00fcksek ayl\u0131k enflasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l tekrarlanmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla baz etkisiyle enflasyonda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc son d\u00f6nemde ABD ile ili\u015fkilerin d\u00fczelebilece\u011fi ve Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerine gidebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle birle\u015fince piyasada ciddi bir iyimserlik dalgas\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Bir zamanlar y\u00fczde 20 enflasyondan s\u00f6z edilirken \u015fimdilerde tek haneli enflasyon konu\u015fulur oldu. Bu tahminler, d\u0131\u015f geli\u015fmelerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra baz etkisi denilen baz\u0131 aritmetik hesaplara dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m basit bir hesaplamay\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da sunay\u0131m. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablo T\u00dcFE endekslerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimlere yani ayl\u0131k enflasyon ve oradan giderek hesaplanan 12 ayl\u0131k sonu\u00e7lara dayan\u0131yor. Sar\u0131 alan hen\u00fcz sonucunu bilmedi\u011fimiz d\u00f6nemleri g\u00f6steriyor. Bu d\u00f6neme ait ayl\u0131k ve 12 ayl\u0131k oranlar\u0131n hesaplamas\u0131 bana ait. Bu hesaplama \u00e7ok basit bir varsay\u0131ma dayan\u0131yor: Bundan sonraki her ay\u0131n enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7en \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE ortalamalar\u0131 olarak ald\u0131m. 12 ayl\u0131k enflasyonlar da buna g\u00f6re \u015fekillendi.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:table &#8211;><\/p>\n<table class=\"wp-block-table\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Aylar<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>2018 Ayl\u0131k<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>2019 Ayl\u0131k<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>2019 12 Ayl\u0131k<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ocak<\/td>\n<td>1,02<\/td>\n<td>1,06<\/td>\n<td>20,35<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u015eubat<\/td>\n<td>0,73<\/td>\n<td>0,16<\/td>\n<td>19,67<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Mart<\/td>\n<td>0,99<\/td>\n<td>1,03<\/td>\n<td>19,71<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Nisan<\/td>\n<td>1,87<\/td>\n<td>1,69<\/td>\n<td>19,50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>May\u0131s<\/td>\n<td>1,62<\/td>\n<td>0,95<\/td>\n<td>18,71<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Haziran<\/td>\n<td>2,61<\/td>\n<td>0,03<\/td>\n<td>15,72<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Temmuz<\/td>\n<td>0,55<\/td>\n<td>0,62<\/td>\n<td>15,79<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>A\u011fustos<\/td>\n<td>2,3<\/td>\n<td>0,84<\/td>\n<td>14,33<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Eyl\u00fcl<\/td>\n<td>6,3<\/td>\n<td>2,38<\/td>\n<td>10,41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ekim<\/td>\n<td>2,67<\/td>\n<td>2,06<\/td>\n<td>9,80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Kas\u0131m<\/td>\n<td>-1,44<\/td>\n<td>0,19<\/td>\n<td>11,43<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Aral\u0131k<\/td>\n<td>0,4<\/td>\n<td>0,91<\/td>\n<td>11,94<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:table &#8211;><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-976162655\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>(\u0130sterseniz siz de kendi tahminlerinizi sar\u0131 alanda 2019 Ayl\u0131k ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 s\u00fctunda yer alan oranlar\u0131n yerine kendi \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz oranlar\u0131 yazarak yapabilirsiniz. 12 ayl\u0131k enflasyonu da bir \u00f6nceki 12 ayl\u0131k enflasyondan 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n o aya isabet eden oran\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p yerine kendi tahmininizi koyarak hesaplayabilirsiniz. Tabii burada 12 ayl\u0131k enflasyon oranlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 hesaplamak i\u00e7in T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in T\u00dcFE endeks say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmak gerekiyor. Basitle\u015ftirme ama\u00e7l\u0131 bu pratik yolu tercih ettim. )<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-213333260\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Benim bu basit hesaplamam y\u0131lsonunda T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u00fczde 11,94 \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Kimisi buna benzer hesaplar\u0131 farkl\u0131 oranlar kullanarak yap\u0131yor ve y\u0131lsonu enflasyonunu y\u00fczde 15 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor, kimisi de y\u00fczde 8,5 buluyor. Bunlar\u0131n hepsi de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayl\u0131k enflasyon oranlar\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek ve bu y\u0131l ayn\u0131 durum tekrarlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece 12 ayl\u0131k oranlar d\u00fc\u015fecek (buna baz etkisi deniyor.) Enflasyondaki h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam\u0131 kurdaki hareketlere fazlas\u0131yla ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/pb-borfin-temel-analiz-1\" rel=\"external nofollow noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #3366ff;font-weight:bold;\">TEMEL ANAL\u0130Z \u0130LE NASIL H\u0130SSE SE\u00c7\u0130L\u0130R? UZMANINDAN HEMEN \u00d6\u011eRENMEYE BA\u015eLA!<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:heading {&#8220;level&#8221;:6} &#8211;><\/p>\n<h6>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mahfiegilmez.com\/2019\/07\/enflasyon-bugun-duser-yarn-ckar.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" aria-label=\"TIKLAYINIZ (yeni sekmede a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r)\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">TIKLAYINIZ<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:heading &#8211;><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;> Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n y\u00fcksek ayl\u0131k enflasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l tekrarlanmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla baz etkisiyle enflasyonda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc son d\u00f6nemde ABD ile&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,847],"class_list":["post-58169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-mahfi-egilmez-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58169","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58169"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58169\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58169"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58169"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58169"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}