{"id":57803,"date":"2019-06-20T09:33:49","date_gmt":"2019-06-20T06:33:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=57803"},"modified":"2019-06-20T09:33:15","modified_gmt":"2019-06-20T06:33:15","slug":"fed-dunyayi-kurtarabilir-mi-turkiyeyi-kurtarabilir-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/fed-dunyayi-kurtarabilir-mi-turkiyeyi-kurtarabilir-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed d\u00fcnyay\u0131 kurtarabilir mi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi kurtarabilir mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-967866428\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00c7ar\u015famba 07, Abu Dabi. \u015e\u00f6f\u00f6r arkada\u015f beni otelden havaliman\u0131na s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Arabaya bindi\u011fimde navigasyon panelinden d\u0131\u015f \u0131s\u0131ya bakt\u0131m. 37 derece. Yar\u0131m saatta havaliman\u0131na geldik, 39 dereceye \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7ar\u015famba Emirates Policy Center adl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015funun T\u00fcrkiye panelinde \u00dclkelerin Milli Serveti, \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc ve de\u011fi\u015fimi ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir sunum yapt\u0131m, sunumu makalenin en alt\u0131ndaki  linkte bulabilirsiniz. \u00d6\u011fleden sonra da GSP ad\u0131na m\u00fc\u015fteri ziyaret ettim, vallahi hava so\u011futmal\u0131 binadan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131m anda g\u00f6zl\u00fcklerimi bu\u011fu kapl\u0131yor, tavuk karas\u0131! Bir ka\u00e7 kere yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131kla namuslu ve \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc Arap bayanlar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, feci dayak yedim. Bir sigara i\u00e7melik d\u0131\u015far\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yorum, burnumdan \u00e7ok kulaklar\u0131mdan duman \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Beyin \u0131s\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in buza yat\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f limonlu Sitoli ve kapruz \u015ferbeti. Yan\u0131nda deve past\u0131rmas\u0131 ve hurma dolmas\u0131. Yalan lan. \u00d6yle yemekler yok. Abu Dabi gayet medeni bir yer. Tan\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m bir \u00e7ok Arap bizden iyi T\u00fcrk\u00e7e konu\u015fuyor, bize sempatiyle bak\u0131yor. Abu Dabi biliminsanlar\u0131 da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00f6neminin fark\u0131nda ve \u00e7ok yak\u0131ndan takip ediyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>\u00c7ar\u015famba 14\u2019te eve d\u00f6nd\u00fcm, e-mailleri okudum, ona-buna laf soktum, sonra da Powell\u2019\u0131  dinledim. Ben Fed\u2019in piyasalar\u0131n tahmin etti\u011fi daha do\u011frusu umdu\u011fu gibi  %80 ihtimalle Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirece\u011fine ikna olmad\u0131m. Powell k\u0131sa, \u00f6z ve sarih konu\u015fan bir B\u00fcy\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm. FOMC\u2019in faiz indirmesi i\u00e7in 3 \u00f6nko\u015ful var:<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya ekonomisi yava\u015flamaya devam ederse\u2026<br \/>ABD istihdam ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 daha da yava\u015flarsa\u2026.<br \/>Ticaret Sava\u015flar\u0131 s\u00fcrer ve \u015fiddetlenirse.<br \/>Hafta sonu Osaka zirvesinde Trump Xi Jinping ve Erdo\u011fan zirvelerini g\u00f6reyim, bu 3 \u00f6nko\u015fulun ne denli ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i oldu\u011fu ve Fed\u2019in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi kurtar\u0131p kurtaramayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir kez daha anlat\u0131r\u0131m size.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1644961080\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>Ama, bug\u00fcn bir senaryo analizi yap\u0131p \u201cen k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryoda\u201d Fed\u2019in faiz indirimleri d\u00fcnyay\u0131 resesyondan, bizi de kur \u015fokundan korur mu sorusuna Jerome Abim\u2019den \u00f6\u011fendi\u011fim gibi k\u0131sa ve net cevaplar verece\u011fim.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-127326351\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>\u201cEn k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryo\u201d ABD-\u00c7in Ticaret Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n vites y\u00fckseltmesi yan\u0131nda, Trump\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7im tela\u015f\u0131yla AB\u2019ye de sald\u0131rmas\u0131yla ba\u015flar. Ek olarak Bejiing\u2019in alaca\u011f\u0131 makro-ekonomik \u00f6nlemlere kar\u015f\u0131n \u00c7in ekonomisinde so\u011fuman\u0131n s\u00fcrerek global reseyouna gidi\u015fi  h\u0131zland\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>Fed do\u011fal olarak faizleri  h\u0131zla ve belki 50 baz puanl\u0131k kademelerle indirecek, ona siyasi \u00e7er\u00e7eve izin verdi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde  AMB da kat\u0131lacak. Bu senaryoda Fed\u2019in faiz indirimleri reseysonu engellemez. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc yava\u015flaman\u0131n temelinde yatan tedarik zincirlerinde da\u011f\u0131lma ve sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faize kolay ya da istenen y\u00f6nde tepki veren de\u011fi\u015fkenler de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>\u00d6te yanda, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir parasal gev\u015feme ve \u201cne gerekirse yap\u0131lacak\u201d vaadi, mali piyasalar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kmesini \u00f6nler. Mali piyasalarda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir panik ata\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ikinci bir darbe olarak reel ekonomiyi vurmas\u0131, ve s\u0131cak para \u2013 kredi ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n kesilerek \u00e7ok bor\u00e7lu Geli\u015fmekte Olan \u00dclke (GO\u00dc, Piyasa = GOP) \u015firketlerinde zincirleme iflas-temerr\u00fctleri tetiklemesi durgunluktan daha k\u00f6t\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/pb-borfin-temel-analiz-1\" rel=\"external nofollow noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #3366ff;font-weight:bold;\">TEMEL ANAL\u0130Z \u0130LE NASIL H\u0130SSE SE\u00c7\u0130L\u0130R? UZMANINDAN HEMEN \u00d6\u011eRENMEYE BA\u015eLA!<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:heading {&#8220;level&#8221;:6} &#8211;><\/p>\n<h6>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.paraanaliz.com\/2019\/dunya-ekonomisi\/fed-dunyayi-kurtarabilir-mi-turkiyeyi-kurtarabilir-mi-35271\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" aria-label=\"TIKLAYINIZ (yeni sekmede a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r)\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">TIKLAYINIZ<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:heading &#8211;><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;> \u00c7ar\u015famba 07, Abu Dabi. \u015e\u00f6f\u00f6r arkada\u015f beni otelden havaliman\u0131na s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Arabaya bindi\u011fimde navigasyon panelinden d\u0131\u015f \u0131s\u0131ya bakt\u0131m. 37 derece. Yar\u0131m saatta havaliman\u0131na&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[854,851,808,801],"class_list":["post-57803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-atilla-yesilada-kose-yazilari","tag-atilla-yesilada-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57803","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57803"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57803\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57803"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57803"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57803"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}