{"id":57701,"date":"2019-06-15T15:19:46","date_gmt":"2019-06-15T12:19:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=57701"},"modified":"2019-06-16T03:23:26","modified_gmt":"2019-06-16T00:23:26","slug":"moodysin-not-dusurme-karari-ve-olasi-etkileri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/moodysin-not-dusurme-karari-ve-olasi-etkileri\/","title":{"rendered":"Moody\u2019s\u2019in Not D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme Karar\u0131 ve Olas\u0131 Etkileri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#8211; wp:heading {&#8220;level&#8221;:4} &#8211;><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3538737917\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<h4><strong>Genel A\u00e7\u0131klama<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:heading &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>Uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan Moody\u2019s, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi notunu Ba3\u2019den B1\u2019e indirdi\u011fini ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn de negatif oldu\u011funu, yani not indiriminin devam etmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>Bu yeni notun ne anlama geldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterebilmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nce kredi derecelerini g\u00f6steren tabloya bir bakal\u0131m:<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-948216274\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&#8211; wp:image {&#8220;id&#8221;:57702} &#8211;><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"697\" height=\"578\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/turkiye-kredi-notlari.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-57702\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/turkiye-kredi-notlari.png 697w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/turkiye-kredi-notlari-300x249.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 697px) 100vw, 697px\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:image &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>\u00d6nde gelen di\u011fer iki kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu olan Standard and Poor\u2019s (S&amp;P) T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi B+ (g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm dura\u011fan), Fitch ise BB- (g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm negatif) olarak derecelendirmi\u015f durumdalar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3894220032\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>S&amp;P\u2019nin B+ notuyla Moody\u2019s\u2019in B1 notu ayn\u0131 dereceye denk geliyor ama S&amp;P g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc dura\u011fan olarak belirlemi\u015fken Moody\u2019s g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de negatif olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn pozitif olmas\u0131 notun ileride artma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, dura\u011fan olmas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, negatif olmas\u0131 ise d\u00fc\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan bu \u00fc\u00e7 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu aras\u0131nda bug\u00fcn itibar\u0131yla en k\u00f6t\u00fc not Moody\u2019s\u2019e en iyi not ise Fitch\u2019e ait. Bu a\u015famada S&amp;P ve Fitch\u2019in notlar\u0131n\u0131n eski tarihli oldu\u011funa ve bu notlar\u0131n da yak\u0131nda yenilece\u011fine dikkat etmek gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>1990 y\u0131l\u0131nda S&amp;P\u2019den BBB ve Moody\u2019s\u2019den Baa3 notlar\u0131yla ba\u015flayan (bu notlar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 1992 y\u0131l\u0131nda Yankee Bond Market\u2019e ilk tahvil ihrac\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda oldu\u0131) T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi derecelendirme \u00f6yk\u00fcs\u00fc 1994 krizindeki not kayb\u0131yla devam etti ve 1997 y\u0131l\u0131nda Moody\u2019s notu B1\u2019e ve Standard and Poors B+\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. 2004 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin notu tekrar y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 ve 2014 sonunda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi notlar\u0131 Fitch BBB \u2013 (negatif), Moody\u2019s Baa3 (negatif) ve S&amp;P BB+ (negatif) olarak belirlendi. Bu notlar, 1990 y\u0131l\u0131nda al\u0131nan notlardan sonra en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeydeki notlard\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde ya\u015fanan ivme kayb\u0131yla kredi notlar\u0131 tekrar d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Moody\u2019s\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 B1 (negatif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm) notu, kurulu\u015fun 1997 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye verdi\u011fi en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck nota geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc anlam\u0131na geliyor. Kriz ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f olan ve hala toparlanamam\u0131\u015f olan Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n kredi notu B1 (dura\u011fan.) Yani Yunanistan, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den iyi durumda.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:heading {&#8220;level&#8221;:4} &#8211;><\/p>\n<h4><strong>Moody\u2019s\u2019in Not D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme Gerek\u00e7eleri<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:heading &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>Moody\u2019s, not indirimi gerek\u00e7eleri olarak ba\u015fl\u0131ca \u015fu kayg\u0131lara yer veriyor[i]: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu \u00f6demeler dengesi krizi, iflas riskiyle birlikte devam ediyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 d\u00f6viz rezervlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f izlenen dalgal\u0131 kur politikas\u0131na ters d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor ve bu geli\u015fme Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u015feffafl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 konuma sokuyor. H\u00fck\u00fcmet\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f bulunan ekonomi programlar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 gidi\u015fata reaksiyon niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131maktan \u00f6teye gitmezken bir k\u0131sm\u0131 da uygulanmadan kal\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin d\u0131\u015f kaynaklara y\u00fcksek dereceli ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ileride ya\u015fanacak bir \u015fok durumunda ciddi sorunlar yarataca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. K\u0131sa vadeli d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 \u00f6demeleri, y\u0131l i\u00e7inde vadesi gelecek olan uzun vadeli d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 \u00f6demeleri ve yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 yerle\u015fiklerin d\u00f6viz mevduatlar\u0131n\u0131n toplam\u0131 d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin 2,6 kat\u0131 etti\u011fi i\u00e7in riskli bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca d\u0131\u015f kaynak bulma maliyeti \u015eubat ay\u0131ndan bu yana 4 puan artm\u0131\u015f bulunuyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Rusya\u2019dan sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 S \u2013 400 f\u00fczeleriyle ilgili olarak ABD ile T\u00fcrkiye aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan kriz, ABD Kongresi\u2019nin, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ambargo uygulanmas\u0131 karar\u0131 almas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde bu geli\u015fme T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ve finansal sistemi i\u00e7in ciddi sorunlara yol a\u00e7abilecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"external nofollow noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/pb-borfin-temel-analiz-1\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #3366ff;font-weight:bold;\">TEMEL ANAL\u0130Z \u0130LE NASIL H\u0130SSE SE\u00c7\u0130L\u0130R? UZMANINDAN HEMEN \u00d6\u011eRENMEYE BA\u015eLA!<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:heading {&#8220;level&#8221;:6} &#8211;><\/p>\n<h6>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mahfiegilmez.com\/2019\/06\/moodysin-not-dusurme-karar-ve-olas.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" aria-label=\"TIKLAYINIZ (yeni sekmede a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r)\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">TIKLAYINIZ<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:heading &#8211;><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8211; wp:heading {&#8220;level&#8221;:4} &#8211;> Genel A\u00e7\u0131klama &#8211; \/wp:heading &#8211;> &#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;> Uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan Moody\u2019s, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi notunu Ba3\u2019den B1\u2019e indirdi\u011fini ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,847],"class_list":["post-57701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-mahfi-egilmez-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57701","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57701"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57701\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57701"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57701"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57701"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}