{"id":57600,"date":"2019-06-11T11:04:46","date_gmt":"2019-06-11T08:04:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=57600"},"modified":"2019-06-14T03:18:19","modified_gmt":"2019-06-14T00:18:19","slug":"enflasyon-tek-haneye-duser-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/enflasyon-tek-haneye-duser-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Enflasyon Tek Haneye D\u00fc\u015fer Mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3061389898\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>3-4 ayl\u0131k vadede enflasyon da tek haneye iner, 12 ayl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k da s\u0131f\u0131rlan\u0131r. As\u0131l sormam\u0131z gereken, her ikisi de o seviyelerde kal\u0131r m\u0131. Kalmas\u0131 zor maalesef, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc her ikisi de d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel, yap\u0131sal de\u011fil. Hesaplamaya bakarsak.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>Enflasyon Eyl\u00fcl Ekim\u2019de nas\u0131l tek haneye d\u00fc\u015fer. San\u0131r\u0131m bunu t\u00fcm meslekta\u015flar\u0131m da hesapl\u0131yordur. May\u0131s itibari ile 12 ayl\u0131k enflasyonumuz %18.7 seviyesinde. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z kur \u015foku sebebiyle, A\u011fustos Eyl\u00fcl Ekim aylar\u0131nda ayl\u0131k enflasyonlar\u0131m\u0131z \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Sadece bu \u00fc\u00e7 aydaki toplam enflasyon 11.3 puan. Oysa ki son 10 y\u0131l, ayn\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 aydaki toplam ortalama enflasyonumuz 2.5-3 puan aras\u0131nda. Aradaki fark 8 puana yak\u0131n. TL\u2019de \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z takdirde, matematiksel olarak Eyl\u00fcl Ekim 2019 itibari ile, kur ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi bitiyor, ve enflasyon \u00f6nceki normallerine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon hesab\u0131ndan 11 puan\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p yerine 3-4 puan koysan\u0131z dahi, yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. Daha temkinli bir hesap yaparsak 6 puan d\u00fc\u015felim. %10 seviyesinde bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyona baz etkisi kaynakl\u0131, matematiksel olarak \u00e7ok rahat eri\u015fiyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>Sorun \u015fu ki, enflasyon pek o seviyelerde kalam\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Kas\u0131m Aral\u0131k\u2019ta da eksi ayl\u0131k enflasyonlar g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcz, bu da aksi \u015fekilde aleyhimize. 2019\u2019u muhtemelen %14-15 civar\u0131 bir rakamla tamaml\u0131yor olaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4223603353\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>Enflasyonda \u00fc\u00e7 temel sorunumuz var. G\u0131da, kur ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi ve atalet (geriye d\u00f6n\u00fck fiyatlama). Kur ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi, TL sakin kal\u0131rsa, denklemden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Elimizde g\u0131da ve atalet problemi kal\u0131yor. G\u0131day\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7\u00f6zmemiz \u015fu a\u015famada \u00e7ok olas\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc at\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gibi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn toplam \u00fcretimdeki pay\u0131 7-8 y\u0131l \u00f6nce %10\u2019larda iken art\u0131k %6\u2019lara d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Yap\u0131sal problemler birikmi\u015f, ula\u015ft\u0131rma ta\u015f\u0131ma depolama vs.. \u00d6zetle g\u0131da sorunu bir s\u00fcre daha bizle. Atalet yani geriye d\u00f6n\u00fck fiyatlama sorununa gelirsek. Bu, hem g\u0131da hem kur ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fine k\u0131yasla m\u00fccadele etmesi \u00e7ok daha zor bir sorun. Beklentileri uzun bir d\u00f6nem, 3-4 y\u0131l \u00f6d\u00fcn vermeden \u00e7ok iyi y\u00f6netmeniz ve kamuyu enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine ikna etmeniz gerekir ki fiyatlamalar geriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olmas\u0131n. Yani insanlar ge\u00e7mi\u015f enflasyona bakarak gelecek enflasyona dair fiyatlama yapmas\u0131n. \u00d6zellikle i\u015fveren ve \u00fcreticiler. T\u00fcrkiye 2001 sonras\u0131nda bu konuda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck emekler vermi\u015f, ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 da olmu\u015ftur. Burada da sadece \u00e7ok iyi dizayn edilmi\u015f bir para politikas\u0131 yeterli olmaz, maliye politikan\u0131z\u0131 da para politikas\u0131na e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc g\u00f6t\u00fcrmeniz ve \u00f6d\u00fcn vermemeniz gerekir. Ancak bu disiplin ortaya konursa, enflasyon konusunda kamuyu ikna edebilir ve beklentileri y\u00f6netebilirsiniz. Bu a\u015famadan sonra toplumu enflasyon konusunda ikna i\u00e7in s\u00f6zel y\u00f6nlendirmeden ziyade ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeler ve icraat devreye girecektir.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2026863234\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zetle enflasyon 3-4 aya baz etkisi kaynakl\u0131 tek haneye d\u00fc\u015febilir ama orada kalmas\u0131 zor, yeniden %13-14\u2019e geliriz. 2013\u2019ten sonras\u0131nda, yanl\u0131\u015f politikalar sonucunda, enflasyonun yap\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6zellikle atalet fakt\u00f6r\u00fcnden dolay\u0131 bozulmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. As\u0131l test de %13-14\u2019leri k\u0131rmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r muhtemelen. &nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"external nofollow noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/pb-borfin-tahvil-bono-1\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #3366ff;font-weight:bold;\">TAHV\u0130L-BONO P\u0130YASASINDA NASIL YATIRIM YAPILIR? UZMANINDAN HEMEN \u00d6\u011eRENMEYE BA\u015eLA!<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:paragraph &#8211;><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; wp:heading {&#8220;level&#8221;:6} &#8211;><\/p>\n<h6>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/yorum\/gizem-oztok-altinsac\/2224240-enflasyon-tek-haneye-duser-mi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow external\" aria-label=\"TIKLAYINIZ (yeni sekmede a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r)\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">TIKLAYINIZ<\/a>.<\/h6>\n<p>&#8211; \/wp:heading &#8211;><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8211; wp:paragraph &#8211;> 3-4 ayl\u0131k vadede enflasyon da tek haneye iner, 12 ayl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k da s\u0131f\u0131rlan\u0131r. As\u0131l sormam\u0131z gereken, her ikisi de o seviyelerde&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3956,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,2184],"class_list":["post-57600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-gizem-oztok-altinsac-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57600","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3956"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57600"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57600\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}